2090 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

01. SS Patrick Paxson
He looks a lot like Bryan Ross. Which, I find to be quite solid. Ross was very consistent in his prime and Paxson will be similar. He'll become a solid on-base guy with solid speed and great defense. I think some of the talk about him only being a bottom of the order bat or knocks on his speed or over done. If he's like Ross, he'll be a ~.370 OBP and ~20 SB guy. While it's hardly elite in either category, it'll be enough to slot second and get in front of the big bats.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 68 Pow, 95 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 5
Scouting File Score: 93.41

02. SP Jason Ogg
He was said to look like Kent Carney. If he does, that's not as bad as some would think. In his two peak years he turned in a pair of sub-4.00 ERA seasons and had a 2.73 ERA season in his first year of decline. However, the real big problem in that analogy is that Carney started with 77 control to 60 movement. Ogg should be much more balanced in his build. The concern that I have on him (like Carney) is home runs. He only has one year of high homers, but just one year can spell trouble. Plus he has a pretty low GB% and not a big power build. I think he'll be alright, but I think the homers will hold him back from being great.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 85 Pow, 88 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 2
Scouting File Score: 94.04

03. 2B/3B Samuel Armero
I have mixed feelings on him. With his high contact, he has the potential to be really good. But it also has a chance of holding him back. His strikeouts are very low and he could wind up like Iyasu Shimizu - where you expect a .300+ hitter, but get a .270 bat instead. In order for Armero to be a reliable bat, his contact will need to get into the upper 90s.

Grade:
Future Skills: 100 Con, 79 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 6
Scouting File Score: 91.49

04. SP Howard Marshall
He has a great build. Only a slight concern about his control being 13 points above his movement. Other than that, he has a nice blend of control, power, GB%, and pitch repertoire. Being very young is also something to crave. Mogul just seems to develop 16 year olds differently and having a build of an 18 or 19 year old is pretty nice as well.

Grade:
Future Skills: 95 Con, 82 Pow, 96 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 1
Scouting File Score: 95.37

05. C Aaron Modlin
Finally, a defensive catcher that can hit and throw! I think he's the best catcher in the draft, but I think this is a bit early to take him. I don't know that he'll hit enough to warrant a top 10 selection. If I were more confident about him hitting well (and getting to his projection), I think he'd be a knock out pick.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 87 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 15
Scouting File Score: 89.31

06. SP Enrico Mauri
He'll have some great control, but I have concerns that his movement will always lag behind his control. While he only has one season of higher home runs, he also doesn't have any low OBA years. In the end, I think he'll always be a guy that you expect more from and is closer to average than the top of the rotation arm that his control will suggest.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con, 77 Pow, 88 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 18
Scouting File Score: 88.76

07. 2B/3B Ned McPherson
He's much like Armero, but doesn't have the tip-top contact projection. He has such low strikeouts, that if he puts up an .800+ OPS, I'll be surprised. Being a lefty does help a little bit. He'll probably be startable because of that, but more of a .675-.725 guy.

Grade:
Future Skills: 94 Con, 72 Pow, 75 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 10
Scouting File Score: 89.88

08. 1B Keith Bax
I feel like I say this all the time, but this is a build where you hope for Kevin Webster, but usually get James Nixon. The great fielding, low strikeout bat 1B builds need to reach elite levels or they tend to fall short of expectations. It's just a very big risk this early in the draft to hope for the 1-in-5 guy that actually produces like you hope. And then saying how many players with this build have a very short peak window, it only adds to the disappointment.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 90 Pow, 95 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 4
Scouting File Score: 93.58

09. SP Thom Minard
Normally, this is a pick that I'd crap on. He has bleh control, his movement is very close to that control and will quickly overtake it, and he's shown home run issues most years. But these power builds have started to work and he is just 16. Mogul can do some wonders on prospects that start out this young.

Grade:
Future Skills: 73 Con, 90 Pow, 91 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 70
Scouting File Score: 82.43

10. LF/RF Marcelino Barabe
It'll be interesting to see if jmaine chooses wisely on where Barabe lines up. Judging from the stats, he'll be better in LF over RF, but also made no errors in CF. His arm could make many opt to place him in RF (but would they be wrong) and his speed likely means the corners for most.

But his bat is the big draw. He should eventually hit for a solid average to go along with nice power and he'll probably walk more than his eye will suggest. I don't know if he's a real big difference maker as a hitter, but a quality bat to go along with good defense makes for a very good player overall.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 87 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 12
Scouting File Score: 89.44

11. SP Junior Patrick
If I cared enough, I'd go back and look but for some reason, his build makes me think it's very similar to a pitcher than I drafted on SDP (Palin, Kastelin, Tinker...). If I'm right, this is a guy that could become very good. I know there's some home run issues, but I'm not as worried when they're 17, rated 51, with 50 movement, and a 50% GB rate. I think it all suggests that it'll be a non-issue when he's peaked.

Grade:
Future Skills: 78 Con, 81 Pow, 90 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 32
Scouting File Score:86.26