Talent Issues 2020 Edition

[GoIrish]

Mike,

What DJ is trying to accomplish here is making some of the players with inflated ratins that are not worth the extra rating go away without it hurting the players of value or prospects of value. By isolating who is going to go away, it will ease the transition better and make the drops less random to teams. If he were to just do this all in one fell swoop like you want, that will kill a lot of the prospects and delay others for the teams that are in rebuilding stages right now and make the window for teams like Florida, Chicago and Toronto last longer on top.

[mike]

The teams that have all the higher rated guys will be the teams that have the best chance of having the drops if we lower the talent levels. It could delay other teams as well but the teams that will be affected most are the ones who already have most of the top talent. Getting to choose some of the guys that go down isn't really fair imo, especially the 90's going to the 80's. Taking a guy who could have been an agent guy down to a guy you can easily extend. Agent guys have a better chance at hitting the open market which help spread around the talent. Also there will be ways to abuse this without anyone even thinking you are abusing it. I know that may sound sinical but if the chance is there people will do it even if its subconcious on their part.

[rockybull]

The teams that have all the higher rated guys will be the teams that have the best chance of having the drops if we lower the talent levels. It could delay other teams as well but the teams that will be affected most are the ones who already have most of the top talent. Getting to choose some of the guys that go down isn't really fair imo, especially the 90's going to the 80's. Taking a guy who could have been an agent guy down to a guy you can easily extend. Agent guys have a better chance at hitting the open market which help spread around the talent. Also there will be ways to abuse this without anyone even thinking you are abusing it. I know that may sound sinical but if the chance is there people will do it even if its subconcious on their part.

I see what you are saying and I get it, but the teams with the best talents will get hurt, but also the teams without the top talent will get hurt as well, and it will still be less of an impact to the Marlins and teams like that. I am finally close to competing after a longer than expected rebuild. But I lose a few of my guys then it will set me back even longer, and Florida has enough great depth to withstand this and still be top of the walk in the East for many more years. The way DJ is trying to do this, is like Sean explained in the post above. I would rather see some accidentally abuse this, than just let it randomly fuck more guys up. And there is no guarantee that these random drops hurt the Marlins, Cubs, Jays players the most. It could easily hurt teams like yours, mine and other teams worse than them. The key word here is "random".

[mattynokes]

The teams that have all the higher rated guys will be the teams that have the best chance of having the drops if we lower the talent levels. It could delay other teams as well but the teams that will be affected most are the ones who already have most of the top talent. Getting to choose some of the guys that go down isn't really fair imo, especially the 90's going to the 80's. Taking a guy who could have been an agent guy down to a guy you can easily extend. Agent guys have a better chance at hitting the open market which help spread around the talent. Also there will be ways to abuse this without anyone even thinking you are abusing it. I know that may sound sinical but if the chance is there people will do it even if its subconcious on their part.

This.

Besides the talent I would've had to give up, it's one of the reasons I went after Chitty over Gagnon. Going from the low 90s to the high 80s you'll essentially drop an .850 OPS guy to .825. I'd take the lesser OPS considering I'll save an easy $5M on salary. I don't see how dropping low 80s that aren't worth their rating does any good for fixing the talent issues. If anything we'd be removing a dud, for a prospect that might become something, which is improving the talent pool.

[GoIrish]

The teams that have all the higher rated guys will be the teams that have the best chance of having the drops if we lower the talent levels. It could delay other teams as well but the teams that will be affected most are the ones who already have most of the top talent. Getting to choose some of the guys that go down isn't really fair imo, especially the 90's going to the 80's. Taking a guy who could have been an agent guy down to a guy you can easily extend. Agent guys have a better chance at hitting the open market which help spread around the talent. Also there will be ways to abuse this without anyone even thinking you are abusing it. I know that may sound sinical but if the chance is there people will do it even if its subconcious on their part.

This.

Besides the talent I would've had to give up, it's one of the reasons I went after Chitty over Gagnon. Going from the low 90s to the high 80s you'll essentially drop an .850 OPS guy to .825. I'd take the lesser OPS considering I'll save an easy $5M on salary. I don't see how dropping low 80s that aren't worth their rating does any good for fixing the talent issues. If anything we'd be removing a dud, for a prospect that might become something, which is improving the talent pool.

I personally think there are 2 different issues that people are having. DJ does not like how many 90 and 80 rated players we have in the file. I also think others have an issue with where and how the talent is distrubted in the file.

Well the issue that DJ is addressing is that we now have too many 90's and 80's players in the file. So we need to lower some 90's to 80's and lower some 80's to 70's. The thought is we do this on our own accord, then adjust the % to what we have done and that will not have a negative random effect on prospects or the core of teams. The more players that are volunteered by teams will mean less random players it will effect in the file. So teams rebuilding will not have prospects delayed/killed off and teams on the cusp of competing will have a better chance to do so.

I think Matt and Mike are under the impression that if this is done randomly without players being named that the game will automatically pick Chicago, Toronto, Florida, Houston, New York, etc etc... It will effect those teams but it also will effect the players on KC, Atlanta, Colorado, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tigers, etc etc. In my opinion, if we do this completely randomly. The random drops should balance itself out throughout the league and it will effect the teams more that do not have the depth. This will create a longer window for the teams at the top because they will have the depth to be able to sustain it.

I see what you are saying about the 90's rated players going to 80's now will not have to negotate with an agent. We could use a special circumstance with this change and the players that are 90 that are going to high 80's ratings, still will have to go through the agent system (until they reach past their 6 years played or after their next contract expires), so this effort to clean up the file will not be used in a fashion to navigate around the system in place. Considering I have 3 players I am willing to drop rating on to upper 80's this would effect me the most.

[mattynokes]

I think Matt and Mike are under the impression that if this is done randomly without players being named that the game will automatically pick Chicago, Toronto, Florida, Houston, New York, etc etc... It will effect those teams but it also will effect the players on KC, Atlanta, Colorado, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tigers, etc etc. In my opinion, if we do this completely randomly. The random drops should balance itself out throughout the league and it will effect the teams more that do not have the depth. This will create a longer window for the teams at the top because they will have the depth to be able to sustain it.

Feel free to think what you want, but that's not the impression I'm under.

[dejota]

Sean nailed it from my POV. The idea is to mitigate and control ANY competitive advantage that adjustments will present. Obviously we can't foresee every friggen loophole, never have, never will. I think it's ironic that my main goal is to prevent (and to a larger, overlooked degree eliminate) competitive disadvantages yet my idea is chalked full of them.

As has been noted by others, there's not much we can do about distribution short of roster rules and/or a Rule IV draft. As others have noted, the best GMs are going to draft/acquire the better talent. So for many that seems to leave the question, what will this even accomplish?

The point of lowering talent is to increase the actual impact by the existing talent so that when a team on the cusp of breaking through into contention gets a noticeable benefit to acquiring that big-time hitter or pitcher (and even to a lesser degree that complimentary role player that helps glue a team together). As of now you need a lineup and roto stocked with 90s guys to be relevant.

Here's the most basic way to explain talent caps in mogul:

Mogul uses a stats file to limit the total number of stats that can be produced in any given season. Mogul uses the talent caps to limit the total number of 90/80s overall/peak players. Let's take the most basic simplistic example of this model and play it out how I think it has in FCM on a large scale.

We have a league with 10 players and in this league 100 HRs will be hit in every year. In this example 1 guy is a 90, 3 are 80s and 6 are 70s (roughly the same ratio mogul actually uses). We'd expect that 1 90s player to hit 30+ HR, The 3 80s to combine for about 40 HR and the 70s guys to take the remaining 30.

If we suddenly increase it to where we have 3 90s players, 5 80s Players (leaving only 2 70s players since the total number of players doesn't change in mogul) we're still going to have 1 of the 90s guys hit 30+HR the other two will dissapoint but still produce 20+HR seasons since they're still 90s and suddenly the game only has 30 HRs left for all the 80s/70s players.

When you trade players you're not trading for talent, at the end of the day you're trading stats (save that debate for another thread please and take it at face value) or at least that's what you're trying to improve on your team. When you're overpopulated with talent it takes more of the same QUALITY of player to get the same QUANTITY of stats, whether it be HRs, Winks, K's, etc.

[Cdawg]

Sean nailed it from my POV. The idea is to mitigate and control ANY competitive advantage that adjustments will present. Obviously we can't foresee every friggen loophole, never have, never will. I think it's ironic that my main goal is to prevent (and to a larger, overlooked degree eliminate) competitive disadvantages yet my idea is chalked full of them.

As has been noted by others, there's not much we can do about distribution short of roster rules and/or a Rule IV draft. As others have noted, the best GMs are going to draft/acquire the better talent. So for many that seems to leave the question, what will this even accomplish?

The point of lowering talent is to increase the actual impact by the existing talent so that when a team on the cusp of breaking through into contention gets a noticeable benefit to acquiring that big-time hitter or pitcher (and even to a lesser degree that complimentary role player that helps glue a team together). As of now you need a lineup and roto stocked with 90s guys to be relevant.

Here's the most basic way to explain talent caps in mogul:

Mogul uses a stats file to limit the total number of stats that can be produced in any given season. Mogul uses the talent caps to limit the total number of 90/80s overall/peak players. Let's take the most basic simplistic example of this model and play it out how I think it has in FCM on a large scale.

We have a league with 10 players and in this league 100 HRs will be hit in every year. In this example 1 guy is a 90, 3 are 80s and 6 are 70s (roughly the same ratio mogul actually uses). We'd expect that 1 90s player to hit 30+ HR, The 3 80s to combine for about 40 HR and the 70s guys to take the remaining 30.

If we suddenly increase it to where we have 3 90s players, 5 80s Players (leaving only 2 70s players since the total number of players doesn't change in mogul) we're still going to have 1 of the 90s guys hit 30+HR the other two will dissapoint but still produce 20+HR seasons since they're still 90s and suddenly the game only has 30 HRs left for all the 80s/70s players.

When you trade players you're not trading for talent, at the end of the day you're trading stats (save that debate for another thread please and take it at face value) or at least that's what you're trying to improve on your team. When you're overpopulated with talent it takes more of the same QUALITY of player to get the same QUANTITY of stats, whether it be HRs, Winks, K's, etc.

I noticed the statistical issue a few weeks ago, but didn't realize that stats were pooled but instead thought that all the players were slumping.
for example I went to the SS position b/c in a more realistic file I think only 2-3 SS are even 91+(Tulo, HanRam, and you can make a small but un fruitful arguement for like Castro,Andrus and ACab) Still more there is only like 3 guys between a 85-90. the 3 mentioned above and the likes of Drew, Jeter, Rollins and reyes. Those are the more defensive w/ offensive abilites. everyone else has possibly average offense and ok defense at the SS position.. those between a 78 and 85.

ANYWAY if we look at perrins his 2018 campaign should be a nearly common stat line for his career but in 5 seasons he's only hit over .287 twice(96 contact) and only over 20 HR 3 times(83 power translates to about 25 average.) So many of these SS w/ 90+ contacts aren't hitting the .300 they should be as an average b/c all of the SS have a 90 contact rating. when in RL only about 3 SS even hit .300(MLB avg of top 30 SS 2/ 264 AB is .258) which to me is about a 78 contact.

[rockybull]

I don't get it. Why would people rather it random MORE guys to be hurt than to do like DJ asks people to volunteer guys and limit the guys being hurt? I absolutely just don't get this one bit. I think people are hoping it hurts the super teams the most here, and I don't think it will to be honest. I think it will hurt the lower teams worse as stated above in my last post. But, if people would rather spit on this idea from DJ and say screw it random it for everyone or be like I don't want teams taking advantage of a loophole, and then see file and see the super teams still super and the other teams hurting more, then maybe they will realize that they didn't know what the fuck they were talking about.

[mike]

I give up. I'm just going to concede so we can this thing going. As far as my team goes I don't see any players that should realistically be dropped that won't already be hitting FA. Also I think this needs to be done before we do any offseason stuff. IE: no trades no nothing can be done until we have killed off some guys and determined what FA's are going to get dropped. Then we can start trading and the offseason can proceed as normal. Also the percentage of what we are dropping talenty levels down to will need to be set before we proceed as well. Keep in mind that it will still take mogul 2-3 years beofre we see the full results.