07-25-2010, 03:02 PM
(07-25-2010, 02:47 PM)AndyP Wrote: I don't think anyone wants things to be completey predictable, but there is another extreme too - completely randomn. Realistically, things aren't entirely randomn in real life. Yes, it's impossible to tell for sure who the Jeters are at age 25, but you will at least have an idea about the quality, talent, and personality of the player such that you can take a pretty good guess. In real life there are tons of ways to make accurate predictions about player success and in the ways Mogul tries to quantify these you can be very good evaluating talent if you know what to look for and how to balance factors. This file, unlike any I've ever experienced, appears to be incredibly randomn. In other words....too far to the randomn side of the spectrum. Yeah, things like Markakis and his 92 injury rating being out for 3 months is going to happen - I get that. But the randomn injury drops, vital drops, vital stall, etc. are what I'm concerned about.
If you were a major league scout and at the end of the day your evaluation came down to a roll of the dice rather than predicatable, observable factors - you'd probably say "screw going to watch a game, I'll just roll the dice". That's a bit how I feel right now about this file and Mogul 2011 - in an effort to get away from being too predicatable it has become too randomn. I guess I personally would prefer too predictable. Too randomn eliminates the element of skill.
I'm not saying DJ did anything wrong, I'm starting to think 2011 may be a problem that the designers are refusing to acknowledge and he didn't have a prayer putting together a good file. It's simply frustrating how much fluctuation the talent seems to be subjected to.
Andy,
i think the reason it is so random and volatile is because of the loss of players. It has skewed our percentages that are built into the game. We can sim forward but the sim forward will not account for the human element, which is us cutting the prospects that are not panning out and after they sit in FA, then opt to retire. I think we have to assume that our plateau of players might be around 2k, if that is the case, maybe we should alter the percentages to match what we were going to see with 3k players.