07-24-2010, 04:27 PM
Okay, upon even further review it would appear that if I'm right about the population being the culprit for the seemingly random nature of the file then we should be out of the woods. We're currently a little overinflated still, but after simming into the future it seems the game levels out with a total population of about 2200 (+/- 150) which would mean the massive exodus of players should be coming to an end which means the normal talent projection models will take back over as the primary talent determinate.
In layman's terms the game's new dropoff feature is kicking into overdrive since we've lost 500 players a year over the past two seasons. Therefore, it's overriding and erasing many of the player's positive developments. As a result we see what seems like completely random and consistent dropping off of talent. That would suck if it were for no reason, but for every 100 players that retire (no matter what their rating) we 3 90s players must drop.
The point is, like we predicted when the original talent questions were raised, it'll take about 3 years for everything to return to the normal levels. If you look at the base file on BBM you'll see there's only 2000 players. The entire model is dependent on having about that quantity of players, so by starting w/ 3000 we forced it to do too much.
Thoughts?
In layman's terms the game's new dropoff feature is kicking into overdrive since we've lost 500 players a year over the past two seasons. Therefore, it's overriding and erasing many of the player's positive developments. As a result we see what seems like completely random and consistent dropping off of talent. That would suck if it were for no reason, but for every 100 players that retire (no matter what their rating) we 3 90s players must drop.
The point is, like we predicted when the original talent questions were raised, it'll take about 3 years for everything to return to the normal levels. If you look at the base file on BBM you'll see there's only 2000 players. The entire model is dependent on having about that quantity of players, so by starting w/ 3000 we forced it to do too much.
Thoughts?
Houston Astros - 2012/2016/2023/2025 Champs!
Cumulative Record: 1894 - 1184 (.615%)
Cumulative Record: 1894 - 1184 (.615%)