01-30-2012, 08:41 PM
The talent issue isn't anything overall rating related. It's the fact that random drops aren't really random, they're pretty much guaranteed. It seems that it's more random for a player to not undergo a random drop at some point during their career. Veteran careers seem to usually last about eight years. We've seen over the years people shy away from players who are 30+ and that shouldn't be the case.
The main issues are draft and farm system settings. Draft classes are well higher than what they should be. Prospects boom at too high of a rate. All if this makes random drops happen at a higher rate than what they should. Veterans should have a more stable career and prospects should be more of a risk.
Here's some numbers:
FCM Current Talent Ages:
Players 40+: 0
Players 35-39: 37 (18 Generated Players)
Players 30-34: 273 (263 Generated Players)
Mogul Default File Ages:
Players 40+: 25
Players 35-39: 159
Players 30-34: 542
I think with Mogul working how it always has, we're always going to see a lower correlation than in real life, but the difference we have is startling. As for the generated players, there probably aren't enough in the 35-39 age category yet, but we have a great picture as to what we'll be seeing in the future from the 30-34 age group, basically half as many 30-34 age players than there are on the default file.
FCM 2025 Draft Class Peaks:
Peak 95+: 2
Peak 90-94: 16
Peak 85-89: 24
Peak 80-84: 61
Peak 75-79: 62
Peak 70-74: 33
Peak 65-69: 12
Peak 60-64: 0
Mogul Default Draft Class Peaks:
Peak 95+: 0
Peak 90-94: 5
Peak 85-89: 16
Peak 80-84: 38
Peak 75-79: 48
Peak 70-74: 61
Peak 65-69: 38
Peak 60-64: 4
First off, let's check any arguments about peaks not being the only thing at the door. Of course we all should realize the value of vitals, but for purely looking at talent levels peaks are a good thing to look at.
In the late 3rd to early 4th round you can still find some low 80s peaks available in FCM. In a Default Mogul draft those would've been long gone from the late 2nd to early 3rd round. We're basically a round ahead of the default file.
Overall, I don't think drastic measures need to be done. The Farm System shouldn't be completely killed and the draft should look like what it does at default. A compromise would be very good for the league's talent issues.
Farm System: Dropped to Very Good (Possibly down to Average in future seasons)
Draft Talent: Dropped to a medium between FCM and Default
Talent Distribution: Slight drop in overall talent
The distribution I didn't talk about, but I think lowering that a little bit would be good since if we do nothing with it, Mogul will just randomly increase players to get back to those levels.
The main issues are draft and farm system settings. Draft classes are well higher than what they should be. Prospects boom at too high of a rate. All if this makes random drops happen at a higher rate than what they should. Veterans should have a more stable career and prospects should be more of a risk.
Here's some numbers:
FCM Current Talent Ages:
Players 40+: 0
Players 35-39: 37 (18 Generated Players)
Players 30-34: 273 (263 Generated Players)
Mogul Default File Ages:
Players 40+: 25
Players 35-39: 159
Players 30-34: 542
I think with Mogul working how it always has, we're always going to see a lower correlation than in real life, but the difference we have is startling. As for the generated players, there probably aren't enough in the 35-39 age category yet, but we have a great picture as to what we'll be seeing in the future from the 30-34 age group, basically half as many 30-34 age players than there are on the default file.
FCM 2025 Draft Class Peaks:
Peak 95+: 2
Peak 90-94: 16
Peak 85-89: 24
Peak 80-84: 61
Peak 75-79: 62
Peak 70-74: 33
Peak 65-69: 12
Peak 60-64: 0
Mogul Default Draft Class Peaks:
Peak 95+: 0
Peak 90-94: 5
Peak 85-89: 16
Peak 80-84: 38
Peak 75-79: 48
Peak 70-74: 61
Peak 65-69: 38
Peak 60-64: 4
First off, let's check any arguments about peaks not being the only thing at the door. Of course we all should realize the value of vitals, but for purely looking at talent levels peaks are a good thing to look at.
In the late 3rd to early 4th round you can still find some low 80s peaks available in FCM. In a Default Mogul draft those would've been long gone from the late 2nd to early 3rd round. We're basically a round ahead of the default file.
Overall, I don't think drastic measures need to be done. The Farm System shouldn't be completely killed and the draft should look like what it does at default. A compromise would be very good for the league's talent issues.
Farm System: Dropped to Very Good (Possibly down to Average in future seasons)
Draft Talent: Dropped to a medium between FCM and Default
Talent Distribution: Slight drop in overall talent
The distribution I didn't talk about, but I think lowering that a little bit would be good since if we do nothing with it, Mogul will just randomly increase players to get back to those levels.
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