2121 Nokes Draft Scouting File Draft Review

[mattynokes]

A long title, eh? What the hell is this? Good question. Since we have a long break before the live draft, I figure I'll reveal where and what my scouting file projects for each pick as they roll in. Maybe I'll add some commentary at some point.

Guide
Rank: Where the player ranks in my draft scouting file.

Score: My file gives every player a score in order to rank them. This is a nice tool to see how strong or weak a draft is compared to past drafts.

Last Year: This is simply where last year's player at the same rank scored for reference. (i.e. if pick #20 ranked #25, then it's comparing the score for the 25th ranked draftee from last season, not the 20th pick from last season.

Projection: This is how my file predicts the player will develop. It's mostly based on current upside/peak, but a draftee already aging or jumping can have an effect on the projection as well.



01.  SS Alejandro Soto 73/91 - Age 21
Rank: #2 | Score: 90.73 | Last Year: 92.31
Projection: 86 Con 81 Pow 84 Eye

Granted, I don't think Mike understands the difference between scarcity and value, I do like the pick. He should have a relatively balanced bat to go along with obvious speed and steal ability. Ideally, you'd like for your SS to be better defensively. However, his speed makes up for his arm and range and he'll be a fine defender. The only thing that stops him from being a great player is if he has limited time to develop.

02.  CF Tim Davis 67/93 - Age 19
Rank: #3 | Score: 90.65 | Last Year: 89.71
Projection: 100 Con 77 Pow 81 Eye

Despite Gilly's best efforts, I think he actually made a great pick! Davis should have elite contact to go along with good speed/steal ability. His defense is lackluster and maybe best suited for LF, but again, his speed makes up for less-than-ideal range and he should wind up good enough to patrol central.

03.  SP Adam McGilvernock 65/93 - Age 18
Rank: #1 | Score: 93.33 | Last Year: 95.84
Projection: 88 Con 79 Pow 92 Mov

How does a guy with projected vitals like that rank at #1? Well, when you drop from a 93 peak to a 93 peak when you age, it'll boost your score! Now, it's likely that he truly dropped from a 94 to 93 peak when he aged (remember, Mogul counts by two once 93+ peak/overall), but still a very small aging drop suggests that he'll have a long time to develop and a good candidate to beat his projected vitals. With the evidence provided, I would not be surprised if he develops into an Ace.

04.  SS Marcello Enrigvez 69/84 - Age 20
Rank: #17 | Score: 86.69 | Last Year: 85.49
Projection: 78 Con 76 Pow 78 Eye

If you've been following along to past draft pod reviews, it's no surprise that I really don't like these type of players. It's not that I don't think they could be good, but it's that I feel this build has proven to have a high fail rate and I see it as more of a tease than something to believe. The speed is unquestioned as mega elite. The questionable part is how will his bat develop? These guys just seem to fall short of being impactful offensively and the speed usually isn't enough to save them from being more than a nice bench option. Maybe he bucks the trend?

05.  SP Sean McNeese 52/89 - Age 17
Rank: #16 | Score: 86.82 | Last Year: 85.54
Projection: 86 Con 80 Pow 91 Mov

Despite a middling ranking, I think he's pretty solid. He has a nice control-movement projection to go along with a good GB%. His home runs are a little high, but he's just 17 (18 next sim). With aging next sim, we'll quickly have a good idea of just how long he'll have to develop.

6.  SP John Shew 68/93 - Age 20
Rank: #4 | Score: 89.87 | Last Year: 89.11
Projection: 88 Con 95 Pow 88 Mov

I think he's a very interesting case subject. He's got some impressive starting (and projecting) power. His control is solid and he has the looks of someone who could be an Ace. However, I can't help but think that his movement is too far behind his power. Certainly, movement develops the most out of the three vitals, but I worry that the projections could be right and his movement doesn't get to 90. If it doesn't, I think he could be a guy who is simply good and not dominant.

7.  SP Adam Wheatcroft 69/93 - Age 20
Rank: #9 | Score: 87.80 | Last Year: 87.93
Projection: 83 Con 76 Pow 100 Mov

I don't have a good read on this guy. His control is already behind his movement, but it's not as bad as it would be for a 50s overall pitcher. My guess is that the sanity checks make his control develop better than projected (and as a result, his movement isn't that high). He only shows one season of high home runs (his freshman year of high school), maybe it's an anomaly or maybe it suggests something with a lower GB% from a non-power arm.

8.  SP Bertrand Worth 63/91 - Age 19
Rank: #23 | Score: 84.95 | Last Year: 84.18
Projection: 80 Con 86 Pow 88 Mov

Be shocked! GD took a power arm that probably wasn't one of the top remaining SPs on many other's board. Differing from Wheatcroft, I do like Worth's power and GB% combo. A 40% GB rate is quite nice for a pitcher that I'd more label as a power arm. And like Wheatcroft, he does show some high home run years, but there's a difference in home run issues coming from a 73 movement vs a 59 movement. I think Worth develops in the type of arm that lasts a decade in St. Louis as a reliable starter.

9.  SP Dusty Clowery 63/90 - Age 20
Rank: #27 | Score: 84.63 | Last Year: 84.01
Projection: 83 Con 81 Pow 87 Mov

Even though my file said he was barely a 1st round talent, I disagree. I don't see much wrong with selecting him in the top 10. He's got a nice, balanced build and a decent GB%. His junior year of high school was a little high in the home run department, but nothing too major to be worried about. The big concern is that he'll age directly following the draft. He also already progressed, so there's some risk (and why my file ranked him lower) that he sees a sizeable aging drop. However, if he can stay at an 87 or 88 peak, he'll be a perfect winterball candidate to get back some upside and could be on his way to becoming a nice pitcher.

10.  SP Paul Thaxton 63/89 - Age 21
Rank: #15 | Score: 86.92 | Last Year: 85.96
Projection: 83 Con 90 Pow 85 Mov

Lots of power and lots of home runs are what I initially see out of this guy. Taking a deeper dive and you'll notice that he already aged (a 3 drop), which should/could spell that he has six or seven years to develop. If he can become what his projections suggest, he might not be far off from what the A's got in Shew at #6.

11. RF Nicholas Bayless 71/95 - Age 18
Rank: #8 | Score: 88.07 | Last Year: 88.56
Projection: 86 Con 87 Pow 100 Eye

I kind of really like him and then I kind of really hate him. He has a prototypical RF build and could have nice power. Then again, I can't help but think his eye being far above his power and contact will bring his ratings and/or production down. And that's before mentioning that he has -3 drop splits vs RHP. He's very young, so maybe there's enough time for him to become a prized middle of the order bat. However, with the concerns outlined, it's clear why a 95 peak, age 18 draftee dropped outside of the top 10.

12. 3B Andrew May 67/86 - Age 19
Rank: #18 | Score: 86.11 | Last Year: 85.39
Projection: 82 Con 78 Pow 83 Eye

At first, I think this may have been a case of getting slightly poor value. But, when you consider that the Angels don't pick again until the mid-2nd round, it's fine to get your guy while you still have a chance. I don't see him lasting another 30+ picks. Offensively, he'll almost certainly be limited to league average production (at-best), but it's his defense for why you take him. He'll be one of the best defenders at the hot corner in no time.

13. :cin; 1B Alex Achaval 63/89 - Age 20
Rank: #6 | Score: 89.03 | Last Year: 88.82
Projection: 94 Con 84 Pow 83 Eye

I'm a fan of Achaval and I think this could turn out to be a steal. He probably has just 20-25 home run potential, but he might end up with elite contact while consistently hitting .325+. First Base isn't the most important position defensively, but his elite glove there won't hurt at all. Maybe it's the position or maybe it's the probably contact build as to why he fell, but in four or five seasons, he could look like a 1B that many GMs would love to have.

14. LF Jeremy Dicken 69/80 - Age 20
Rank: #40 | Score: 83.08 | Last Year: 83.13
Projection: 91 Con 67 Pow 87 Eye

We have our first "reach." Most of the time players that GMs feel will outplay their vitals/rating go a little later. Though, if he can perform anywhere close to what Alan Reed did (2,200 Hits, 1,200 Runs, Career .800 OPS), then it'll be far worth it. Some may think that you need to shoot for Hall of Famers, but a simple valuable piece for 6-8 years can help your march towards a World Series.

15. 3B Dave Willis 70/90 - Age 19
Rank: #22 | Score: 85.20 | Last Year: 84.44
Projection: 85 Con 80 Pow 69 Eye

I don't hate him, but I certainly don't love him either. It's easy to see that the defense probably makes him a startable option. But I think that's where it ends.  Offensively, I worry. He has a very low K/low BB eye. That's the type of eye that produces inflated contact numbers. Players that can survive this type of eye generally have something else, offensively, that's elite (i.e. speed or power). Additionally, his poor health means you're probably not going to get 140+ games out of him very often. Still, he's solid enough if you're fine with a ~.650-.700 OPS bat who'll play good defense at 3B.

16. SP Johnny Dahlberg 52/84 - Age 17
Rank: #39 | Score: 83.12 | Last Year: 83.18
Projection: 83 Con 75 Pow 87 Mov

He didn't make my list, but only because I stopped at 85 peaks and didn't resume until after he was taken. Otherwise, he'd have made my list and been a decent amount higher than my file gave him. He's very young, has decent starting control and a good groundball rate. There's plenty of time for him to develop into a quality starting pitcher.

17. RF Stew Copeland 75/93 - Age 22
Rank: #21 | Score: 85.47 | Last Year: 84.74
Projection: 85 Con 94 Pow 80 Eye

He may be the steal of the draft. He clearly has power and should have solid contact to go along with an eye that'll walk a decent amount, but neither walk or strikeout too much nor too little. He has deceptive speed and should get enough range to be considered for one of the corner outfield spots. He didn't see much of an aging drop, so I don't think concerns of an older college player peaking out early are a valid concern. He could be one of the more dynamic bats in this draft.

18. 2B Marco Charon 69/93 - Age 19
Rank: #10 | Score: 87.70 | Last Year: 87.58
Projection: 86 Con 82 Pow 86 Eye

I think he'll be a solid player, but I think many others were lukewarm on him (like I was) with his lack of speed. That kind of a projected bat to go along with solid defensive vitals usually goes much earlier than this. He'll be a good one to watch in the future to see if his lack of speed truly does hold him back.

19. RF Rey Perez 78/87 - Age 21
Rank: #11 | Score: 87.70 | Last Year: 87.39
Projection: 81 Con 89 Pow 89 Eye

Before Spring Training, he looked mighty appealing - Then he aged and saw a 5-point peak drop. All signs point to him peaking out next spring. If correct, he'll need a nice jump this season or else it'll (mostly) become a wasted pick. Even if he'd only have his window boost, he'd still be pretty solid, but far from what you'd expect out of a first round pick. It's a high risk pick, but Milwaukee was a team that had the pick ammo to take a shot.

20. SP Masamitsu Kimio 55/92 - Age 19
Rank: #28 | Score: 84.60 | Last Year: 83.77
Projection: 76 Con 91 Pow 92 Eye

For obvious reasons, he did not make my list. Also, his control is concerning to me. However, his GB% does make sense for being a power pitcher. The big question for me is if his one seasons of high home runs will creep up or if his other three seasons of lower homers will shine through. If the control can keep up the pace with his power and movement, he could be pretty good. But, Mogul probably gonna Mogul.