2070 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

01. :phi2: SP Mario Beltean
He projects to have above average control and great movement. He showed some quality OBAs as an amateur and that could carry over once he's in the majors. I don't see his higher health and endurance holding him back and will be a blessing with being able to avoid the DL and pitch deep in to games.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 72 Pow, 94 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 16
Scouting File Score: 87.21

02. CF Bruce Connors
I like him, but just not as much as some laud him. He'll undoubtedly be a blazer on the bases and superb in the field. His contact will be amazing and he may even flash some underrated power. However, there's a caution flag in his profile that concerns me that he may be more like Clifford Holly than Ivan Velasquez in terms of overall production at the plate.

Grade:
Future Skills: 97 Con, 64 Pow, 78 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 14
Scouting File Score: 87.79

03. SS/IF Holger Blackburn
Even if he doesn't progress, he's a major league SS. That's not something many draftees can say in this league. The defensive edits help his value a ton. Before, he wouldn't have any predicteds there and would be limited to 2B or 3B. This helps him a ton, since I think even with probable very good contact, I don't think he'll be much with the bat. He'll be serviceable, but it's his defense that gives him a lot of value

Grade:
Future Skills: 97 Con, 69 Pow, 75 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 3
Scouting File Score: 91.00

04. :sdp2: SS/IF Jose Haces
He's Blackburn 2.0. His offense, too will not be all that good, but serviceable production from the plate and a terrific defender makes him a good selection.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con, 68 Pow, 75 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 13
Scouting File Score: 87.94

05. :sfg2: 1B James Wesson
Having all 3 hitting vitals above his overall is great. However, he seems to have that profile that a handful of draftees get each year that leads be to believe that they won't quite hit up to their vitals. Instead of a great hitter, I think Wesson may be more of a simple above average bat. If only Operation Sports had half-star images, he'd have a little higher grade.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con, 87 Pow, 83 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 2
Scouting File Score: 91.07

06. SP Jeremy Wilson
My first thought on him was, Glen Fossett. Fossett had an amazing run as a consistent low-3's ERA starter early in his career. Fossett, too, had a build that was lagging behind his overall. Given that Wilson is only 17, has no red flags on HRs, and has a nice GB% to boot and I think he's a nice gamble to take that his vitals eventually get on the right track. Even if he remains overrated, if he peaks out close to 95, then he'll still pitch like a low 90's and that's nothing to cry about.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 74 Pow, 97 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 5
Scouting File Score: 89.65

07. :fla2: SP Brian Kennedy
It seems many people were oggling over him during the draft. Do we remember Tony Norris (career 4.60 ERA) and currently Stephen Bratcher (career 4.48 ERA as of Sim #4 2070)? This is the kind of production you can have with pitchers who have a large disproportion between their control and movement. Very few succeed with builds like this. The deciding factor generally lies in their home runs. Kennedy has some very high HR/9 seasons and that's a big red flag currently with a +/- 14 difference in his control/movement. He'll likely find more success pitching in Florida than most places, but I figure he'll be average anywhere else.

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 86 Pow, 82 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 26
Scouting File Score: 84.13

08. :bal3: SP Jose Mordales
Like Kennedy, Mordales also has a big difference in his control and movement. Though unlike Kennedy, Mordales doesn't show alarming HR/9 numbers. His homers are a tad high, but being a 53 overall, there should be plenty of upside to develop past them. He also only dropped 2 when he aged (he saw a 1 point drop from pre-draft to post-draft). So, he should have a lot of time to develop. It's basically like getting a 16 or 17 year old in terms of time to develop.

Grade:
Future Skills: 90 Con, 77 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 7
Scouting File Score: 89.25

09. :mil2: C Eli Talavera
Simply, he's a great catching prospect. He already has a good arm and he'll do enough offensively to be someone who's more than just a guy there for his defense. It shocked me to see him fall when this is a position where it's tough to find a player who can both hit and play defense. It seems we have many in FCM where they do one or the other.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 79 Pow, 83 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 12
Scouting File Score: 88.44

10. :cin2: 2B/SS Joey Davis
I was told from someone that this is a bust-build. I've never noticed that, but it'll be interesting to follow Davis. Even with his exceptional speed, I like him better at 2B with his subpar arm and less-than-ideal range. How much will he provide offensively is a question. His build doesn't suggest his power will take off, but his stats do. I also question how much of a contact/on-base guy he'll be. He just doesn't gripe me as being very good at either hitting for average or drawing walks. Still, even being around average hitting production with his speed up the middle is nothing to scoff at. His speed is very valuable.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 80 Pow, 80 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 15
Scouting File Score: 87.77

11. SP Esteban Sandobel
I think he's the ultimate wildcard. I think he could be equal scary good and as he could be scary frustrating. The 15 difference in his control and movement is concerning. And while he does have three low home run years (one being extremely low), there is one year that's high and it's close to being very high. It's tough to figure out Mogul on these. Do the three good years outweigh the bad one? I don't think there's a definitive answer. I'd have to say all years you see matter and need to be taken into consideration. If not HRs, I think he could be snake bit by high OBAs. Other things like his repertoire and GB% are things to like to go with assuredly good control. He's another interesting player to watch develop and see how he performs in the majors.

Grade:
Future Skills: 92 Con, 73 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 19
Scouting File Score: 85.95

12. RP Dayton Sicurella
He's got a nice build and is young. He may have Closer potential and maybe even a conversion candidate later on down the road. However, unless you're sure of either of those two previous assessments, I think it's too early to take a reliever. He also shows high home runs in three out of four years. I do like him, but with the homers, low GB%, and first half of the season birthday - I think it's enough combined to nitpick him where I think he's a reach. In the end, he may not look much different than guys you can find in the 3rd round.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 75 Pow, 82 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 8
Scouting File Score: 89.23

13. :pit2: SP Don Stanek
Meh. He's decent, but he's already jumped (not that there's anything wrong with that). He may have been worth a late 1st selection, but picking him this high is buying to his 87 peak (which he isn't). The big question will be how long will he have to develop? I think he'll have a decent amount of time to develop, based on his overall and peak jump. Still, I see him being a bottom of the rotation arm with beating his projections. There were better pitchers on the board.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 73 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 42
Scouting File Score: 81.08

14. :mil2: DH/LF Dustin Davis
With his speed, you might be able to hide him out in LF, but moreover I think he plays the usual DH style defense. He could have some scary good contact. It looks like his power will be more of doubles than home runs, but still solid. He's not the greatest baserunner, but does have solid speed and should walk a solid amount as well. He may end up hitting well, but it'll be a tough sell to make me think he's a great pick with his defensive limitations.

Grade:
Future Skills: 94 Con, 84 Pow, 84 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 6
Scouting File Score: 89.53

15. SP Dave Songer
I was wondering if anyone would buy real high on him. He has an appealing build, a nice deep repertoire, and being advanced he won't take terribly long to be MLB ready. The problem is he's shown some high home run numbers. I've said before, I don't care too much about GB%. It's worth knowing and understanding, but it is not tied to predicteds and a low GB% doesn't necessarily mean poor results. In Songer's case, it does. Mogul does try to attempt to pair low GB% with him home runs. In Arizona (and traveling to Coors 9 times per year), this will only be a bigger issue.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 77 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 23
Scouting File Score: 84.33

16. SP Okimoto Otsuka
My decision was between three pitchers; Donald Rose, Nathan Hadleman, and Otsuka. I took Otsuka because he'd already dropped and very minimal at that. He should have plenty of time to develop. I see him peaking out at 27, worst case scenario. With all that time to develop, his nice build, solid repertoire, and good GB% were enough for me to lift the anti-Asian ban.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 70 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 18
Scouting File Score: 86.52

17. SS Jacob Todd
When considering his window jump (+4 overall), he really only has 7 upside and limited upside like that makes me think he'll only have 2 years to develop. He's a real risky prospect since if he misses a jump this year, it's likely 'Hello, bench utility infielder' for him. He's obviously capable defensively, but his limitation of putting the bat on the ball or getting on base really hurt him. If he had more time to develop, then he'd be worth the selection. But right now, he's simply a big gamble.

Grade:
Future Skills: 74 Con, 78 Pow, 73 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 38
Scouting File Score: 82.29

18. :det2: SP Nathan Hadleman
Why didn't I take him at #16? It came down to having only two pitches. There's certainly a chance that he develops a third pitch, but it's mysterious on how Mogul will handle starters with only two offerings. It's worth noting that it's becoming more prevalent, so we're bound to figure out soon enough. Another reason was that he already jumped and it was a big jump. That sometimes means a big peak drop is coming when players age. Other than that, he's a fine pitcher who has a decent build, doesn't have home runs issues, and has a nice GB%. He very well could end up looking like a pitcher who should've gone before a handful of pitchers taken ahead of him.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 72 Pow, 89 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 20
Scouting File Score: 84.83

19. :mil2: SP Benito Pumarejo
He's alright. He is quite young and there should be a lot of time to develop, but it's home consistent high home runs that turns me away from him. He may have the time to develop past those issues, but I just get the sense that he'll end up an average pitcher.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 80 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 17
Scouting File Score: 86.73

20. :oak2: RP Frederick Suggitt
This is a reach. He'll have good movement, but like Sicurella above, I don't see him being much different than relievers that you can find in the third round. His control isn't great, so there's nothing to suggest a conversion either.

Grade:
Future Skills: 72 Con, 66 Pow, 89 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 66
Scouting File Score: 78.07

21. RP/SP Johnny Tonnochy
The auto-pick that everyone wanted to avoid. His control isn't great, plus it's lagging behind his power and control. However, he does have a very nice Fastball and he's just 18. I wouldn't bet on him being rotation worthy, but I wouldn't write him off just yet. These young guys can have some strange things happen in development. So, while there's not much hope, there's some.

Grade:
Future Skills: 75 Con, 88 Pow, 99 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 22
Scouting File Score: 84.44

22. 1B Greg McSorley
I was quietly hoping people would write him off as a 3B that can't field and skip him, only for him to land to me in the 2nd round. I see very good potential with him. The projections aren't glowing right now, but he's just 17 and his build just has a feeling of a guy who will take off and be a reliable middle-of-the-order producer.

Grade:
Future Skills: 90 Con, 87 Pow, 85 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 4
Scouting File Score: 90.89

23. :stl2: LF/RF Sean McLeod
I understand the logic, but he's missing one key component. Speed. Without speed (or power), I don't see him being much of a threat. He'll have contact, but without speed or power, he'll be just another player that won't stand out. He'll be fine in the field, too, but will be limited to the corners.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 71 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 42
Scouting File Score: 81.04

24. :nym2: SP Speedy Anzuels
Despite some scary, high home run seasons, I like him a little bit. His build is right what you want with control leading the way. His repertoire is solid and his GB% is good. Seeing all four seasons with high OBAs as well is a drawback, but I just get a sense that because of his initial build that he's better prepped for success than some of the other pitchers already taken.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 78 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 10
Scouting File Score: 88.99

25. :tex2: C Ian Wheat
I like his build and what he appears on the surface. But I don't like that he dropped from 90 to 85 peak when he aged. That spells a limited time to develop and missing out on any jump any season, probably means he's a backup. The upside is just not there when you consider that. He'll be good defensively and might be decent offensively, but without more time to develop, it's going to be tough to see his offense coming around.

Grade:
Future Skills: 75 Con, 76 Pow, 74 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 59
Scouting File Score: 78.47

26. :col2: SP Matt Parker
Parker is alright, but his build doesn't grip me as being anything more than a bottom of the rotation arm, which at this stage of the draft isn't terrible value. It's just not great. He should wind up with decent control and power to go along with good movement. He's the kind of guy that will probably jump from team-to-team, serving as the temporary fill-in until you find something better.

Grade:
Future Skills: 78 Con, 80 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 34
Scouting File Score: 82.74

27. :hou3: SP Brian Wallace
He's an interesting pitcher. He's got a nice build, two pitches well above his overall, and home runs shouldn't be a problem. You just have to wonder how many starts he'll miss each year due to his low health. It's that simple with him. He's a good talent, but a slightly lesser pitcher that can start in 30+ games may be more valuable than Wallace, who looks like it'll be hard to rely on him for more than 25 starts per season.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 75 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 27
Scouting File Score: 83.84

28. :was2: LF Max Menzies
He'll never have the defense to be truly relied on in CF, but he'll do just fine with his speed in LF. Menzies has a similar feeling to Justin Nash or Raul Aramburd, where people knocked their value, however when you project them out, they're quite good. At just 16, there's plenty of time for his contact to come around. I'd expect some pretty good power and a solid eye as well.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 89 Pow, 85 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 1
Scouting File Score: 91.99

29. :was2: RP Vlad Bandino
He's alright, but generally (like the other RPs ahead of him) I don't think he'll be much different than the RPs you can find a round or more from now. Regardless of being very young, his control isn't good enough where you can count on him converting to the rotation either.

Grade:
Future Skills: 72 Con, 64 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 68
Scouting File Score:77.89

30. :sdp2: RP Shawn Butterworth
I'm not sure he's worth a 1st round pick or selecting above some of the other arms still left, but I can see value here. He has a pleasing build and knowing reliever development can be sporadic, I wouldn't be too worried that his power and movement are lagging a little more behind his overall than you'd like. Because of that, his projections aren't great, but again, there's reason to believe that his build can prevail and he'll wind up a little more than just another RP lost in the shuffle. His control could end up good enough for a conversion candidate, but he's a definite wait and see candidate.

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 70 Pow, 79 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 44
Scouting File Score: 80.67

31. :mil2: RP/SP Joel Forryan
If it weren't for his pair of 6 HR seasons, he'd have been a big consideration for my pick at #16. He has some very low HR seasons, but with mixed results, it's tough to say how Mogul will view him. Besides that, he's great. His control-movement build is exceptional and his repertoire is solid. He's a guy who certainly has the opportunity to convert to SP once his control develops to comfortable starter levels.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 58 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 28
Scouting File Score: 83.68

32. :was2: 3B Jason Reinhart
On the surface, I want to say this is a mediocre pick. However, he's probably pretty standard for 3B in our league. The position seems to either feature a guy who is a great fielder, but below average hitter or a guy who can hit, but is a below average fielder. He doesn't look like a guy who will walk much at all and with not likely having good contact or power, it'll be tough to see where his offensive production will come from. In the end, he may look something like Umberto Trancosa or Eric Grimard. If he can settle around a league average OPS (~.740), then that's probably pretty nice considering his positive defensive ability.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 79 Pow, 73 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 32
Scouting File Score: 83.40

[decker91]

Pick 4 was SDP