2065 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

Don't worry the re-grades are still being finished. This just takes precedent.

I feel like this may have been the deepest draft in quite some time. The top end seemed to drop off very soon, but it leveled out to some quite solid talent until at least the third. There were also some great finds in the fourth and later rounds as well that would have been gone by pick 75 in previous years.

Then we have the UDFA frenzy. The depth shows when there's three or four bids on a player that wasn't good enough for the top 180. And I don't think many of these UDFAs are shots in the dark. There's certainly a reason they weren't drafted, but they have builds that if you get a lucky break, they could be useful high 70's to low 80's peaked players.

01. :hou3: RF Bobby Chervony
There was an interesting point made that some of these builds develop just fine (Norberto Fregozo) and some just lag behind (Martin Morrow). I can't see Chervony not being a good player, but how ever Mogul decides to treat his develop up-and-downs could go a long way into him being great or just ordinary. If all goes well, he should murder the baseball.

Grade:
Future Skills: 90 Con, 91 Pow, 94 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 1
Scouting File Score: 93.34

02. 3B Paul Damron
He could be good. Marv Eason good. He'll already draw walks at a major league level and it's not hard to see that his Power will be very good as well. Though the one thing I question is if his gaudy Eye detracts from his Contact or Power development. I've noticed with a player like Joseph Orth, who also had a dominant Eye, that he just didn't meet his Draft Day projections even though he peaked out rather high.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 94 Pow, 100 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 2
Scouting File Score: 93.31

03. :sdp2: RP Tony Simpkins
He may have been worthy to take a chance on in the first round, but this is too high for a guy that has so-so Control. I can't even convincingly call him a Starter. He'll certainly have great Movement and decent enough Power, but it's that mid 70's projection on Control that makes me think he's a future Setup Man.

Grade:
Future Skills: 76 Con, 78 Pow, 96 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 13
Scouting File Score: 86.88

04. SP Justin Blake
It was frustrating for me when Carlos Serps dropped on last year's Draft Day, so I know the pain PR is feeling with having a second top ten pick dropping. Still, I can't pity PR too much as I think he was a bit of a reach at this point.

I had Blake with the green highlight, but as someone suited for mid-1st value and a few pitchers that I liked better. Though, Blake is a balanced arm and could easily bounce back with just being 16. It doesn't even have to be this season as he should have many seasons to grow.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 80 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 41
Scouting File Score: 82.95

05. :min2: SP Mark MacOwen
Many people seemed afraid of him, because he doesn't have a glowing build above his overall and I heard some concerns about his high Endurance taking away from his upside. Those would be legitimate concerns if he were a more raw prospect.

However, he's quite refined and close to being ready. Control sometimes does progress better than the (roughly) standard 16 points per 25 of upside, see Scott Collins. Plus, even if his Control has standard development, he's still in the low 80's with very good Power and Movement. The high Endurance could actually be a blessing as while it does detract from upside, it also is important in pitchers being able to go deep into games.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 85 Pow, 90 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 7
Scouting File Score: 88.33

06. C Matt Neyland
There was only six listed Catching prospects in the draft and getting one of the two real guys that have a chance to stay behind the dish was huge. I'm a little concerned with Neyland's offensive future, but I know he'll be great defensively and as long as his offense turns out average, he'll be a starter.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 81 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 9
Scouting File Score: 87.77

07. :chw2: SP Trevor MacCause
At first look, I didn't like MacCause much. His vitals are all lagging behind his overall and he only has one pitcher above the overall. However, maybe I overlooked him. It's certainly possible that his vitals never catch up to his overall, but we've seen some pitcher's have that one jump that gets their vitals in line to what you think they should be for his overall. Plus his home runs look quite low and, as a whole, his high school numbers are very good.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 76 Pow, 90 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 18
Scouting File Score: 86.02

08. :nyy2: RP Justin Womersley
His value hinges on where his Control ends up. It's that simple. He's a solid reliever to target, but I think taken way too early. His Movement is already above his mediocre Control, so it's likely going to be tough for that Control to get very good. He should have dynamite Movement, but I think he could even be borderline Setup material.

Grade:
Future Skills: 73 Con, 65 Pow, 99 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 54
Scouting File Score: 80.98

09. SP Leif Laurier
I like his build. He has an interesting Power build that appears his Control should be solid in the least. It's the 17 HRs in 2064 that's a huge red flag. He had another high HR year during his sophomore year of high school. Mogul doesn't usually put these warnings in a player's amateur stats unless they mean something.

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 88 Pow, 83 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 39
Scouting File Score: 83.17

10. :bos2: RP Mike Ragsdale
He's been battered and tarred for high home runs in all but two years. That just can't spell "good things" for him. Plus his Control is really lagging behind his other vitals. I think he's a reliever all the way and a third or fourth option at that.

Grade:
Future Skills: 75 Con, 81 Pow, 92 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 43
Scouting File Score: 82.63

11. :lad2: RF/LF Mike Brown
The Dodgers got an absolute gift here. I was contemplating him vs Neyland at #6. It was hard to pass up on the young lefty that looks like he could crush the ball and is nearly perfect for RF. But one looming thought was if his Power will develop well or if it'll stagger like Power sometimes can when it's sub-70.

And to relieve and fears of he'll only be able to start against RHPs... The league is made of up around only 20% lefty starters, so that leaves him starting in about 125-130 games each season vs righties. Mogul will certainly have him come off the bench once a righty reliever comes in the game when he sits and it's easy to find a Matt Diaz type bat to platoon with him.

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 87 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 4
Scouting File Score: 90.05

12. :tor3: 1B/DH Donald Wellwood
He's obviously got loads of power potential. I'm just not sure if his contact will come around and be good enough. He certainly won't hit lefties and it's risky if he'll be reliable on a consistent basis. Not a terrible pick, but not as good as some remarked during the draft.

Grade:
Future Skills: 69 Con, 100 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 52
Scouting File Score: 81.00

13. :col2: SP Jeremy Trewhitt
I have a tough time reading him, so just based off of the projections, he should be mildly decent with a chance to be solid depending on how his Control develops. I still think there were some better pitching prospects on the board, but this isn't a bad pick.

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 75 Pow, 94 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 30
Scouting File Score: 83.85

14. :phi2: DH Brett Marshall
He should develop a pretty solid bat. It's just a shame that he'll never make it in the field. The question is how good of a bat will he be? I think he'll be starter worthy, but the guy you always look to upgrade.

Grade:
Future Skills: 90 Con, 85 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 35
Scouting File Score: 83.30

15. :oak2: RP Jorge Rodriguez
No. Too many homers allowed. Too poor of Control to be good. He's just bleh.

Grade:
Future Skills: 72 Con, 84 Pow, 100 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 17
Scouting File Score: 86.25

16. :sfg2: SP Eduardo Egued
I'm a little concerned about his bevvy of home runs allowed his senior season, but his other years aren't concerning. He's also young enough to develop past any long ball issues he may have. He's got a deep repertoire and it's possible that he could be Ace material if he peaks out in the 90's.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 80 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 16
Scouting File Score: 86.35

17. :chc2: DH/1B Bradley Levesques
Some of the other DH candidates got some praise, but I think he may be the most valuable. He's young, he's got nice Power potential, and he looks like he can actually play the field a little (at 1B). Most of the other candidates cannot claim all three items. His splits aren't what you hope for, but if he develops into the 90's, they won't be a factor.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 92 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 19
Scouting File Score: 86.02

18. :mil2: SP Brett Lawson
He may have borderline Ace potential. He's a unique arm that can sometimes struggle, but his power arm doesn't show home run issues. His Control is a little further behind his Power than what you'd like, but it's still above 60, so I think there's hope in Lawson having at least low 80's control. How high it gets will likely determine his Ace status. Some of the pitchers taken above him certainly add to his grade.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 92 Pow, 89 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 5
Scouting File Score: 89.88

19. :sdp2: RF/DH Anders Koch
He's not bad, but with a big early season jump, I think he fell right where he should have. It's not that a pre-draft jump is bad, you just have to put it in relative terms where his 6+ point jump in overall and peak means he won't progress again and likely that his peak will take a heavy drop when he ages - likely 5-7 points pushing him down to a mid 80's peak.

He's tolerable in the field, but I think easier to find a better defensive option and he'll DH. And he should develop an overall useful bat, but he'll have trouble growing into really good Power.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 82 Pow, 87 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 40
Scouting File Score: 83.01

20. :bal3: DH Eduardo Burgoa
Might have a decent bat, but I have a real hard time seeing him being a great hitter. It also doesn't help that he certainly can't play 3B or SS and is a huge gamble at 2B. He's basically just an average hitting DH and you can do better than that for a lineup spot that doesn't play the field.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 82 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 64
Scouting File Score: 80.04

21. :col2: 2B Darwin McCartney
He has a chance to be an unusual power bat up the middle, if he can stick at 2B. He surely won't be good enough for SS, but he should have 80's range and possibly upper 80's range at second. The question is if his poor-to-mediocre Arm will be enough?

You wouldn't think a good Arm is needed at 2B, since the throw is the closest to 1B. But I think Mogul highly weighs this in being able to convert double plays and it shows in the defensive scores when comparing a poor Arm to a good Arm 2B when their Range and Fielding are basically the same.

Grade:
Future Skills: 72 Con, 89 Pow, 78 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 67
Scouting File Score: 79.66

22. 1B Jerome Ulriksenl
I think he's the best 1B bat in the entire draft. He may not have the ceiling like some will have if they peak in the 90's, but Ulriksen is a very safe bet to be a reliable hitter even if he falls short in development. He'll walk a good amount and will hit you homers. In time, his Contact should come around to some solid levels and be the well-balanced bat you covet.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 92 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 12
Scouting File Score: 86.97

23. :stl2: SP Mike Townsend
He has a solid build, but he showed high home runs in all seasons but one. Plus his higher health and endurance will take a little away from his peak. I understand GD's philosophy isn't to worry about having ground ball pitchers, but this is like running straight into the fire for no reason at all. He would be worth rolling the dice at some point, but there were better arms on the board.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 83 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 10
Scouting File Score: 87.23

24. :sea2: DH/1B Yoshi Ishibashi
He should become a pretty good hitter. The problem is that like most other DH candidates in this draft, his Power isn't likely to be great and I would guess (based off of his amateur numbers) that he'll be more of a double machine that hitting the long ball. He's also shown to have some low strikeouts in a few seasons and that may inflate his Contact and Eye a bit. Still, he should get into the 90's Contact and should walk a good amount as well.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con, 85 Pow, 91 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 6
Scouting File Score: 88.88

25. :was2: RF Greg Veselinovski
He has a very nice build and should rise quickly through the minors. I would never play him in LF with his lack of Speed and Range, but he profiles good enough in RF and has a bat that rivals many of these DH prototypes selected ahead of him - good Contact with a solid Eye and Power.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 86 Pow, 84 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 36
Scouting File Score: 83.27

26. :det2: SP Geoff Pierce
He was a guy I was hoping fell to 32. Normally, I knock on guys with control that much higher than his movement, but he doesn’t show home run or OBA issues, so I’m not concerned about him. Real good talent that should have plenty of time to develop and will have top notch Control.

Grade:
Future Skills: 98 Con, 69 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 48
Scouting File Score: 81.56

27. :sea2: SP Ron Woodbury
With a few high HR seasons you’d think I wouldn’t like him, but he’s young enough and has 31 points of upside, so he should have the time to develop past those issues. His build could be very strong when he’s done developing.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 88 Pow, 89 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 3
Scouting File Score: 90.38

28. :sea2: DH Brian Stauch
I don't like him near as much as some raved about him. He should be a good bat, but I don't think he'll be amazing. Plus, like with Mike Brown, it's a question just how much will his Power develop? And with one double in back-to-back season makes me think he'll be one of this disproportionate extra base hitters with something around 12 doubles and 26 home runs.

Grade:
Future Skills: 94 Con, 86 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 22
Scouting File Score: 85.17

29. :det2: RF Boris Joyner
He has tremendous Power potential and is a great fielder. He should end up right around 70 Contact and being a lefty only helps. Still, these kind of players can be very streaky hitters and if he falls short of 70 Contact vs RHP, he's basically worthless.

Grade:
Future Skills: 71 Con, 91 Pow, 78 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 46
Scouting File Score: 81.88

30. :cin2: C Scott Dinnes
With only two catchers in the 2065 Draft, once Matt Leyland want off the board, there really was no bad time to take Dinnes. He's very young and projectable. Obviously he'll be a great defender, but he should have a decent bat and could be quite comparable to Neyland if he develops very well.

Grade:
Future Skills: 77 Con, 73 Pow, 81 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 32
Scouting File Score: 83.73

31. :laa2: SP Guy Gustafson
He reminds of Trevor MacCause. Gustafson also does not have glowing vitals for his overall, but has shown low home run totals in every season. I feel he may be more limited on development than MacCause, but can beat his projections and should find himself in the majors as a reliable bottom of the rotation starter.

Grade:
Future Skills: 77 Con, 65 Pow, 81 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 144
Scouting File Score: 73.98

32. 1B Marco Gueler
I was surprised to see a player with all their vitals above their overall and be as projectable as Gueler is fall this far in the draft. He could end up with close to 90's Contact and Power while I wouldn't be surprised to see him develop past Age 25. I know his splits aren't pretty, but if he manages to peak out anywhere near his projections, the splits won't matter. He has the potential to be a middle of the order basher.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 93 Pow, 81 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 8
Scouting File Score: 88.32

33. :det2: SP Matthew Morris
Here's an interesting arm. He showed low homers early on and then allowed too many homers in junior and senior seasons. His build is solid, he has three pitches above his overall, and he only fell two points when he aged in April. If the home runs don't prove to be costly, he could blossom into a very fine pitcher.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 79 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 11
Scouting File Score: 87.23