2062 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

Another year, another round of changes for the scouting file. It seems it's the norm that I come up with something to tweak to better development projections.

As for the draft, I liked it and then I didn't. It was an interesting one, for sure. Up front, it was quite deep and second round picks seemed to hold similar value as first round picks in some years past. Maybe it was the painfully long Type B Round, but talent seemed to be scarce after the in-game third round. There were some last rounders with nice builds, but you're counting on them to develop at around +10 of their current peak to be useful and (shhh!!) don't tell anyone, but draftees develop about as expected more than exceeding expectations.
----------

01. :tor3: CF Blaine Moore
He has the look of an elite talent. He should have exceptional contact to go along with great speed and already elite defense, which is rare for OFs to potentially have all 90's across the board in the field. The big drawback is his eye. It's not great and a lot of it is tied up into low K's (which also over inflates contact). He may wind up a guy who struggles to walk more than 40 times and could have contact that he consistently hits below expectations. Eduardo Trigueros could be a good comparison for Moore's future AVG and OBP production.

Grade:
Future Skills: 99 Con, 66 Pow, 80 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 3
Scouting File Score: 92.01

02. :sfg2: 3B Luis Gentinetta
He looks a lot like last year's 2B who are really 3B; Greg Davis and Eric Vanness. He could play right now vs LHP and may be a full-time player sometime during the 2064 season. He should walk a ton and have plenty of power. He should be a very good middle of the lineup presence and if Mogul is kind to his peak years, he could be on the HOF track.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 92 Pow, 92 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 6
Scouting File Score: 88.92

03. :lad2: SP Carlos Marquez
If he doesn't develop into an Ace, I'll be surprised. He's got a great build, a good pitch selection, and solid health. His home runs look in check and something often said to be a bad thing when it's very high, endurance, is actually a blessing in this case. He should have enough upside, that it won't hurt his development and will enable him to pitch deep into games.

About his upside. He only dropped 1 point when he aged! Now, that's not something to expect every year, but it certainly suggests he'll still be developing during the second half of his 20's. The only drawback that I can think of is his power. Dominant Aces usually have at least above average strikeout ability and he looks to project around average. So, he might not dominant every year like Lou Cook or Shawn Broderick, but he'll be a highly reliable arm most seasons.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con,74 Pow, 95 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 1
Scouting File Score: 92.84

04. :phi2: SP Tom Tubray
His build has me a little concerned that his control just won't develop like you'd want it. Though his movement should be damn good and he'll have quality strikeout ability. I'd expect his overall to eventually move past his Fastball, but he should still have three quality pitches when it's all said and done. There's no reason to believe he won't be a highly reliable arm, it's just seeing how his control develops on whether he'll be dominant.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 84 Pow, 96 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 4
Scouting File Score: 91.95

05. :mia: SP Jarrell Yarnall
I'm a little higher on him than the scouting file is, but I agree with how the file docks him for what I already touched on - lacking power. Without being able to even break a pane of glass, he'll get nickle and dimed on base hits and just won't be Ace material. His control and movement combo is great and his home runs look in check, so he should be a very good pitcher to plug in and get results.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 64 Pow, 94 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 11
Scouting File Score: 87.18

06. :chw2: RF Arnold McCord
After taking everything in, I think he may possibly should have been a top 3 pick. It's tough to go wrong with as much deep as there is, but he may provide a dymanic bat along with quality defense. What I'm more impressed with is actually the defense. We don't get many builds where defense looks this good in RF with a middle of the lineup bat. Usually the player is lacking an arm or fielding or just has awful range.

And sure, his range won't be the greatest, even below average by league standards. However, many players contributing to the average are backups or minor league depth - like my own Shawn Breault. So, I think if you were to look at only starter worthy player, McCord's range wouldn't look so bad. Also, maybe you're saying, "But he might not be able to play against LHP..." My reaction.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 88 Pow, 88 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 5
Scouting File Score: 90.18

07. :stl2: SP Juan Zuniga
I fail to see the real big interest in him. His build is set up more for a power pitcher build, which will take from both control and movement's usually development path. He also showed quite high home run numbers during his final two years of high school. He's also already jumped, so if you consider he's probably a mid 80's peak, are you really taking him over some of the other pitchers who still have the opportunity to progress this season?

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 88 Pow, 83 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 70
Scouting File Score: 79.91

08. :cin2: 1B Dan Vines
I'd be real on board with this pick if he had a better eye. I just highly question his ability to draw walks and think he'll be relying too much on power for production. Both his power and contact should develop quite well, but I think you may be looking at a guy who hits around .275 with 30/25 power, and maybe just 50 walks. That's not bad production at all, but it's still coming from 1B and a top 10 pick. Not bad value, but not great either.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 91 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 26
Scouting File Score: 84.95

09. :nyy2: SP John Thomas
I'm not sure that he projects to be anything more than a bottom of the rotation arm. His power will overshadow his control, leaving him with borderline command. He should be able to fan a fair number of hitters and will have a dominant Fastball. He should also have solid movement, but not in the range of a high quality starter and the overall build of someone to round out your rotation.

Grade:
Future Skills: 78 Con, 87 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 53
Scouting File Score: 81.86

10. :min2: 1B Joe James
This was the 1B to take. Vines should end up with considerably better contact, but James has amazing power and will walk a good amount. He's a legitimate .900+ threat and may be one of the premier power hitters in the league when he's done developing.

Grade:
Future Skills: 78 Con, 100 Pow, 89 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 8
Scouting File Score: 87.64

11. SP Bernie Carrick
The only "bern" you'll be feeling is the burn of chaffing from turning your neck so often, watching home runs fly out of the park. He does have a nice build and quality repertoire, but it's the high homers that have me concerned. And let's remember, Tampa is no longer a pitcher's delight. He should be a decent enough pitcher to keep in the rotation, but I can't see him being a year-in, year-out reliable arm.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 85 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 34
Scouting File Score: 84.14

12. :oak2: RP Gordon Tigner
As much as I like him, I think this is way too early to take him. His projections may suggest to convert to SP, but I'm not quite sold without seeing a few years of development first. And considering how sporadic reliever progression can be, I don't have enough faith in him as a starter or in the pen this early in the draft. He should have quality movement and for a reliever, he should have good power.

The two big questions are control and HR/9. He's been quite impressive the past 2 years in not allowing homers, but 2060 (1.99 HR/9) was staggeringly high and with 2059 being a little high, you can't write it off as an anomaly. His control projects to be solid, but it's on the cusp of being too low on draft day where development is naturally held back.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 70 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 36
Scouting File Score: 84.12

13. :lad2: SP Scott Collins
He's not bad, but he's not great either. Also, a big question looms. Since he jumped already and both overall and peak saw significant boosts, will his peak see a considerable drop when he ages? He's borderline on starter or needing to stick in the bullpen. He'll have quality movement, but I don't believe either his control or power will be that good.

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 79 Pow, 89 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 48
Scouting File Score: 82.37

14. :was2: SP Manuel Verdogo
This is the guy that I was trying to trade up for. Convert him to starter and I think you have an Ace. With how Mogul tries to suppress RP vitals, if converted, you can bump his movement projection up a few points and give power a good number of ticks better. In the least he'll have very good control and great movement.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 67 Pow, 91 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 2
Scouting File Score: 92.19

15. :nyy2: SP Ray Greening
Upon looking back, this may have been a very sly pick, even better than their earlier pick. His control won't get to the wonderful levels of starters, but it should be good enough paired with what looks like outstanding movement. To add to the excitement, home runs don't look like an issue and he has three pitches that even if his overall surpasses them, they should all be quite solid.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 69 Pow, 95 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 25
Scouting File Score: 85.02

16. :cin2: CF Eli Nunz
This is a very bold and risky pick. With how the FCM file works, Nunz is the ultimate boom or bust pick. He'll have great power and will walk a good bit, but projects to have borderline contact. What hurts worse is his 3-drop contact vs RHP. There's little room for error in him becoming an everyday player.

Grade:
Future Skills: 73 Con, 95 Pow, 83 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 46
Scouting File Score: 82.54

17. C Jose Cauozos
Catchers were rather deep in this draft, but I had two clearly above the rest basically at 1a and 1b. Cauozos gets the nod because of his power. I think he'll be the better overall OPS threat. He'll certainly be great defensively and that paired with solid offensively ability is valuable at a premium position.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 85 Pow, 76 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 7
Scouting File Score: 88.11

18. :mia: RF Carlo Sura
Other than high contact, I have to ask what else will he do well? Maybe he'll have solid power, but I doubt it'll be anything substantial to overlook poor speed and range as well as relatively low walks. He'll be starter worthy, but rather ordinary.

Grade:
Future Skills: 95 Con, 85 Pow, 80 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 31
Scouting File Score: 84.35

19. :cin2: SP Dana Balota
He has a great chance at becoming a middle of the rotation starter, but then I think that's about it. Again, going back to the strikeout thing, FCM's top pitchers have some sort of K ability. So, even with a good looking control and movement build (not to mention low HRs), his ceiling just isn't quite that high.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 67 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 61
Scouting File Score: 81.19

20. :nym2: C Neil Whitelaw
He was my 1b at catcher. As I told gmoney, I think he lucked out on Whitelaw (he wanted Balota instead) as it's tougher to find a catcher that can hit and field than it is to find a mid-rotation arm. Whitelaw should bring pretty good contact with decent power and a decent eye to the table. The defense is obvious, though with middling CS%, I wonder if it means something. Either way, this is a great get for the Mets.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 80 Pow, 78 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 9
Scouting File Score: 87.57

21. :was2: CF Brian Tryon
He reminds me of Bradley Lamp - a guy who doesn't look mega appealing now, but when you look at the big picture, you'll see that he'll develop into a dynamic bat. It's tough to predict how good his defense will be, but his speed will definitely help what is probably going to be only average range.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 86 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 10
Scouting File Score: 87.42

22. :laa2: RP Andy Porch
Porch will certainly have quality movement, but his control is lacking. He also has shown a little home run issues. He may grow out of them, but that with his control issue will render him to bullpen duties.

Grade:
Future Skills: 76 Con, 77 Pow, 92 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 49
Scouting File Score: 82.25

23. :bal3: DH Bart Stacy
He'll have great contact and good power, but doesn't walk much and his defense is suspect. He'd have good value if he could convincingly play field, but being limited to DH makes him just average.

Grade:
Future Skills: 97 Con, 87 Pow, 76 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 17
Scouting File Score: 85.84

24. :lad2: C Lowell MacDade
He'll be pretty good offensively, but rather mediocre defensively. He should hit for a solid average, have good power, and walk a good amount as well. By FCM standards, his arm is below average and it takes from his value a bit. With a strong arm, he might have been the best catcher in the draft.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 83 Pow, 85 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 19
Scouting File Score: 85.58

25. :nyy2: C Matt Spoon
Much like MacDade, Spoon should be good offensively, but lacks the defensive skills to be considered good in FCM. He will be good at limiting miscues, but he'll have a poor arm and someone who opponents can run on all day long.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 81 Pow, 85 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 27
Scouting File Score: 84.88

26. :det2: SP Jeff Summerlin
He should turn into a very reliable middle of the rotation starter. He should end up with quality control and potentially elite movement. So, why not say he'll be a top of the rotation arm? Without better stirkeout ability, it's tough to say that he won't get nickle and dimed for hits allowed.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 62 Pow, 91 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 22
Scouting File Score: 85.30

27. :lad2: LF Tim Wolf
He's alright, but lacks some pretty important skills. With his lack of speed or really good range, he has to move to LF. He also doesn't project to walk much at all (maybe 20 times per season), so he's relying on batting average and power for his value. Being a lefty helps and at this point in the draft, it's not a bad pick. I just wouldn't expect much more than an average starter out of him.

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 84 Pow, 73 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 30
Scouting File Score: 84.51

28. :nym2: SP Charlie Buchanan
He'll have great control, but movement is the lifeblood of pitchers and Buchanan's movement will just be middle of the road. He'll be a fine pitcher to slot at the bottom of any rotation, but not someone you want to rely on in a playoff series.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con, 70 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 59
Scouting File Score: 81.50

29. CF Justin Shope
Without real good speed or projecting to walk a lot, it's tough to get too excited about him. He should wind up with good looking contact and will be useful defensively with his top notch range, but his offensive production won't be much more than a bottom of the order bat.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 67 Pow, 81 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 14
Scouting File Score: 86.32

30. :bos2: C Fernando Estero
He's basically Matt Spoon v2.0. He just doesn't have much true value defensively without a good arm. Offensively, his power won't be that great, but he'll walk a lot and has solid speed for a catcher. Again, it's just that he'll give up a ton of steals, which takes away from his overall value.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 77 Pow, 91 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 20
Scouting File Score: 85.46

31. :cin2: C Nelson Sediles
It's tough to project him offensively. We know walks will be a rarity. His power might be decent, but I would doubt it's anything spectacular. He should wind up with good contact, but how much of that is tied up into what looks like low strikeouts? The good news is he has a strong arm and because of being worthy behind the dish, he's probably the third best catching prospect in the draft.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 80 Pow, 71 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 16
Scouting File Score: 86.23

['PR']

It's was getting weird without a draft grades bashing.

[mattynokes]

Finally completed!