2047 Draft Analysis

[hokeyrules]

1. :ATL: select SP Greg Jasinski
I feel like he is the clear cut number one pick in the draft. He has great vitals for his overall, good health, great high school numbers, and he is only 19. He doesn’t give up a great amount of home runs, and just looks like a very solid pitcher over all. It is probably the first time since 2043, that the best pitcher in terms of consensus was actually drafted with the first pick. Not to mention he can still jump, and if that is the case, he could be real good.
Rating: A+
Career Stats: 220-149 3.66 ERA 2637 K’s 1.13 WHIP

2. :MIL: select 1B Shane McGee
I think Shane McGee was either the best 1B or second best 1B depending on how you look. He should be fairly good, but will not have the power Redwine has, yet will have the better eye and contact, which is not the same type of player mold as has happened. However, when you look at Milwaukee, they have a 1B in Otondo Kodo, who is only 23, and a great 1B, so with the second pick, it’s hard to decide why you would want another one. With all this being said, the guy is 18 years old, and has plenty of room to grow which should definitely give him an advantage, including the possibility of jumping this year still. As well, he is a great fielder and has good health. More importantly his high school numbers are all over in contact and same as his eye, and in his senior year he dipped offensively majorly, and wonder if that could be a cause for concern.
Rating: B-

Career stats: .258 avg 1683 hits 300 HR’s 1099 RBI’s

3. :TEX: select SS Eduardo Alvarez
I personally think Alvarez will be a pretty decent pick, but I find that 3rd overall was a large stretch here. He has great defense, a great eye, and may get to an 80 contact, but he will not be a star, and with a rebuilding Texas team, they may have been better off waiting to see if they could get a catcher in a later draft and getting a much needed pitcher, versus this pick. He also seemed to have lost an overall point and dropped in contact, which could be a sign that he will not jump, and if that is the case that will hurt Texas even more.
Rating: D-

Career stats: .270 1356 hits 57 HR’s 516 RBI’s

4. :CIN: select SP Patrick Baker
Patrick Baker could end up being really good for Cincinnati. I would expect him to even end up being a potential if he can continue to jump well, but a lot can change that. The one thing that is bad for him is his pitching numbers, and I tend to stay away from that, but it does not mean he will be bad. His control jumped a lot with his jump and he’s probably more of a 91-92 peak player, but he has a lot of ground balls, and fits in with the young Reds staff. Whose future pitching could be the Killer B’s. So maybe next year Cincinnati will take a 4th SP whose last name starts with a B. :O
Rating: A+

Career stats: 202-107 3.38 ERA 1676 k’s 1.18 WHIP

5. :CLE: select SP Justin Neuenhoff
Well I am going to be biased here, and say I think he was tied for the second best pitcher in this draft with Baker. Essentially both players were very similar before Baker jumped during the year, the only thing really different is Neuenhoff has lower health, and had better numbers in high school. It should be interesting how he progresses, and Cleveland really needed a good pitcher for their future staff.

Nokes' Take
The great debate: do you take the guy who's already jumped or the guy who has yet to jump and has the potential to look just as good if he does? That's the question when asking, "Baker or Neuenhoff?" I slightly prefered Neuenhoff on March 1 and is why I liked Neuenhoff as the second best pitcher in this draft. His build has the right balance of repertoire to overall, power, and not having control too far above movement.
Rating: A+

Career Stats: 150-129 4.13 ERA 1425 k’s 1.30 WHIP

6. :MIN: select OF Fernando Palencia
I personally really like Palencia, and almost drafted him, but Cleveland did not need any more OF. Both his contact and power are over his overall, and with him being a lefty, his splits are very similar, meaning if he could reach his peak and potentially get close to 90 in either or at least high 80s, he could be quite good with his eye. The only thing is he cannot play D, and that may not be the best thing for Minnesota. The one thing though is that his high school numbers do not show much power, so it will be interesting to see if his power will actually progress or whether he may only end up with power somewhere in the high 70s.
Rating: A+

Career stats: .297 avg 2246 hits 185 HR’s 1082 RBI’s

7. :SDP: select SP Nat Manson
Nat Manson looks like he could be decent, but I am not sure he is going to be that great. His control is a little over the overall, but I feel as it’s so low to begin with, it may not end up being high enough for a top of the line pitcher. With that being said with other more dependable pitchers available, I feel like San Diego may slightly regret this pick. The good news is he is very young at 17 and still has a jump from the looks of it this year, but I feel for him to be really good he will need his control to boost high. The good news is he does not look like he gives a lot of home runs up in his high school stats.
Rating: B-

Career Stats: 117-97 4.14 ERA 1513 k’s 1.412 WHIP

8. :ATL: select SP Todd Hessenauer
I do like Todd Hessenauer, but the one issue is he looks like he just serves up home runs, and although his E.R.A. was decent, his DICE was terrible in high school. He did jump one overall from his birthday and his movement moved 4 versus his control that moved 2, and that means he may have something similar to Manson where he may just not end up with the control to survive being a major league pitcher. He is also 17 so lots of time to progress, but I feel like there were still some other pitchers that look as good if not better.
Rating: B-

Career stats: 100-139 5.00 ERA 1119 k’s 1.54 WHIP

9. :LAA: select SP Jayson Ogburn
Although Ogburn has jumped and probably will peak out somewhere around 90 unless he gets lucky or gets a good WB, I think he was better than the two pitchers taken before. His control was above his overall at the beginning of the year, but when he jumped, did not jump as high as his overall so he may never really be a great number 2, but if it can reach the high 80s, or even somehow get to the 90s, he should be quite good, and unlike Hessenauer he is able to not give up consistent home runs. Obviously he is 22, and that somewhat hurts, but he does not look like he will peak right away so if he can last 4 years before peaking, Chris should be quite happy with the pick he had. The downside is this could be like Chris Johns, and if he just never really jumps, it will be another miss.
Rating: A-

Career Stats: 62-55 4.12 ERA 566 K’s 24 SV’s 1.32 WHIP

10. :CHW: select SS Jason Bullard
Well overall I would say this is a terrible pick, and although he likely will jump and could go back to around 88 peak, I would say at best he will peak on his 23rd or 24th birthday which does not give him any time to really jump, and be great. Similar to Alvarez, it would have been better to wait and see what future years bring with short stops, rather than waste a top 10 pick on this guy.
Rating: D-

Career Stats: .212 avg 532 hits 54 HR’s 242 RBI’s 211 SB’s

11. :ATL: select SP Tom Gailbraith
I like Tom Gailbraith some, but not a lot, as the one issue I see is in the time that he jumped he went up one spot in control and 6 in movement, which means if that were to continue then he would not end up very good in terms of vitals. As well his statistics in high school are absolutely atrocious, and for most of the years in high school he could not keep the ball in the park and it was only the one season where he somehow pitched more innings than possible in 6 games where he did not give up home runs.
Rating: C

Career Stats: 14-14 5.21 ERA 283 K’s 19 SV’s 1.56 WHIP

12. :TBR: select 3B Clint Parker
I liked Clint Parker, at the beginning of the season, as he did look like he could be a very good 3B, and figured he would be a top 10 pick to be honest. He can field, he has power, he looks to have a decent eye, some speed, but lower contact. As well, he started the season at 72 overall, and now is a 71, and that is a scary thing. I still think Tampa Bay will be quite happy with him, but it will be interesting to see if he jumps or not, and that could affect him quite a bit with his birthday already passing. In high school he did hit well for contact, so maybe that will continue in the majors for Tampa.
Rating: A

Career Stats: .241 avg 1294 hits 188 HR’s 727 RBI’s

13. :COL: select SP Peter Sherborne
Essentially I think this was a really bad pick by Colorado and think this will set them down. At least at the draft he was an 85 peak, but he dropped from a 67/89 to what is now a 61/81 and I really do not see him becoming anything. He does have decent vitals where maybe he could end up being decent if he gets a real major boost in WB or gets a couple lucky jumps, but I doubt he jumps this season, and at 81, he may have been a player that could have made it through to the early second round.
Rating: D-

Career Stats: 12-15 5.61 ERA 180 K’s 1.49 WHIP

14. :SEA: select 1B Donny Redwine
Outside of McGee, this was the only other 1B that I thought was close to being considered as the best 1B in the draft. It all depends how you look at them (though as I said McGee is better in my eyes). Redwine has yet to jump, is a lefty, mashes the ball and has a decent eye, and is 18. If he gets a jump this year he could be real good, and add WB on him, and Matty could have found a mashing 1B who hits the ball. One flaw is his defense, and how much the contact or eye will actually go up. Look no further than his minor league stats to see how he mashes.
Rating: A+

Career Stats: .263 avg 832 hits 190 HR’s 577 RBI’s

15. :Was: select CA Jose Delarosa
So let’s just say he is truly the star of the draft. Clearly the best player ever, and that is why Peter picked him, because Peter knows who is good, and he is never wrong.
Rating in Peter’s view: A++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Now for the real ratings and not the ones peter wanted to see. To be fair I did have him on Cleveland’s list, but am glad that he was picked before Cleveland did, and as well I only did a list quickly as I did not realize I was going to miss the draft that night. His eye is terrible, his arm is not that great for a catcher, he has big split differences and more importantly he bats righty so he basically hits lefties well. His numbers in high school were average to decent contact for 2 years, one year he had a terrible OPS, and his power was average as well. Everything including his vitals show that he could just be average all around. As his contact against righties is lower than contact itself, even if he reached 90 overall, his contact against righties would not reach 90, so really Peter should be praying that he just magically jumps amazingly and poof all his problems go away. However, I doubt he ever really becomes anything substantial.
Rating: D-

Career Stats: .260 935 hits 112 HR’s 471 RBI’s

16. :CLE: select SP Nick Clevenger
I picked him for Cleveland as he had not jumped, he was 19, and had a lot of potential to grow. His movement is above his control, which could cause problems, but here is to hoping that because his power is high that both can jump and he ends up with low 70s control and high power and movement, if not this could be a potential wasted pick for Cleveland, but they did not have much in terms of pitching youth. He may also give up potentially to many home runs, but not as much as some of the other pitchers taken ahead of him, and his ground ball percentage was good, so I took the risk. Overall, time will tell whether this was not such a great pick, but even then he may have some good trade value if he does jump this season.

Nokes' Take:
I feel his control could really be an issue. The good thing is there's 38 upside to work with and his repertoire could yield a dominant curve with three other average to above average pitches. His power and movement profile as someone who could get by with just tolerable command.
Rating: C+

Career Stats: 11-14 5.72 ERA 230 k’s 1.66 WHIP

17. :DET: select SP Aaron Swanger
Swanger was another pitcher who was on my list, and I think he should be very good. That being said for him to be top tier, GB needs him to jump and get a good WB on him. He has great control and will be another one of those pitchers who has great control and great movement with no real power, and from the looks of it in the mid-80s overall like some of the others. He does give up home runs which is not such a good thing, even though he is a ground ball pitcher, but I really think Detroit did well in getting this guy, and should be quite happy with how he becomes. This will either help propel Detroit’s rebuilding or knock him back another year. Up until his senior year he also pitched pretty well in high school which is always a bonus.
Rating: B+

Career Stats: 127-79 3.74 ERA 914 k’s 1.21 WHIP

18. :HOU: select SP James Penick
To be honest I do not think I saw Penick at all until he was traded, and he looks like he could be quite good. His control, power, and movement are all above his overall, he already has a great fastball, and high school and college numbers were great. The one thing for him is he likes to give up the long ball a lot, and it will be interesting to see whether 2046 was something we will see more of or whether it was just a bad year in terms of what he gave up. He is 20, and has not jumped this year so this also helps him, but he will need a jump in order for him to be useful, and I think he is already now one of the better prospects on his new team Boston.
Rating: B+

Career Stats: 2-10 7.09 ERA 87 K’s 1.71 WHIP

19. :WAS: select OF Al Bryde
I like his eye, and his contact and power are above his overall, I just really do not like the splits he has with a difference of 11. Although sometimes there is not much you can do about splits if you like the player, and Peter usually does well on outfielders, so let us give him the benefit of the doubt. In high school he hit the ball really well, and should be interesting to see if he progresses, he also is only 18 years old, and has yet to jump, so if he can do that for Peter, than I feel like Peter has a solid young player, which is something he needs after his previous pick. He does however remind me in some ways to Delarosa, and his fielding is a little below average, but obviously can improve and that makes me somewhat wary.
Rating: B-

Career Stats: .286 avg 796 hits 75 HR’s 332 RBI’s

20. :PHI: select SP Andy Hare
I really like this pick by Philly, and this shows why DLee’s team almost always is competing. He has great control for his overall, and power, and his movement will hopefully catch up to that. The one issue is he is 21, and not a ton of room to move in terms of upside, so I really think for DLee’s case, he needs a jump out of him this year in order for him to be of big use in the future. Throughout college and high school he had relatively good numbers, but he too also looks to give up his share of home runs, which is not good when he is a fly ball pitcher. Still a very good pick for Philly, and as always I trust in what DLee does with Philly.
Rating: B

Career Stats: 135-119 4.15 ERA 1803 k’s 1.25 WHIP

21. :LAD: select OF Chris Fullerton
When I look at Fullerton, I think of Oses from last year. Not in terms of his vitals, but the fact that he probably would have been taken in the first 10 picks, if his health was not 64, but teams did not want to risk it. So for the Dodgers, I think they will be quite happy, although his contact will be his worst attribute outside of his health. He also has not jumped, and that could really help him, he definitely shows the power from high school, but his contact was not great then.
Rating: A

Career Stats: .258 avg 828 hits 214 HR’s 591 RBI’s

22. :PIT: select SP Orlando Rivera
In terms of vitals Rivera looks decent with his power and control above his overall, and he has a high ground percentage which is great, however there are a few scary things. One based on his numbers in A and in high school, he seems to give up a lot of home runs for a ground ball pitcher, and two overall his stats in high school were poor. His walk to strikeout ratio is really bad as well, and I feel like he may not become much at all.
Rating: C

Career Stats: 84-72 4.33 ERA 832 k’s 1.42 WHIP

23. :OAK: select OF Tom Veilleux
Reminds me of Joe Gray, who everyone said was a bad pick. The only difference is Gray has an eye and Veilleux does not, but Veilleuax has the health which Gray does not. Veilleux can definitely hit the ball and run and field which is great. Do not expect any power from him, but last season Andy was down on Gray, and went with a similar player, so it is quite interesting to see that.
Rating: B+

Career Stats: .296 avg 2051 hits 128 HR’s 807 RBI’s 358 SB’s

24. :DET: select OF Jeff Barnes
Overall Jeff Barnes looks pretty decent. His contact and power against righties are above his overall, and his eye is a little weak, but nothing extraordinarily terrible. He may not because a big outfield stud, but he definitely looks like he could play in the outfield, and still do pretty well. For a rebuilding team he could be a nice piece to eventually get more pieces for. He cannot hit lefties at all though, which does hurt some value, but not a lot. He also hit pretty well in high school as well.
Rating: B+

Career Stats: .291 avg 1300 hits 149 HR’s 623 RBI’s

25. :DET: select SP Tim Reid
I think Tim Reid can have a pretty solid career as a pitcher. His control is over his overall, and as he jumps if that continues to be the case, his movement and control will be very good. He will have no power, although that might be a glitch as well from his stats, so he may end up doing well. I am throwing out all stats he had in high school or in any future level until the MLB, either way great pick up for Detroit. He also has a high ground ball percentage which is good.
Rating: B

Career Stats: 82-78 4.08 ERA 909 k’s 1.30 WHIP

26. :DET: select RP Mitchell Truman
Mitchell Truman will be a good pitcher regardless if he was stretched out as a starter or remaining as a reliever. He may never be the closer type, but I could see him with his control and movement to be a good set up man. His high school numbers are very good, and he does not seem to give up a ton of homers which is good with him being a ground ball pitcher. I think for Detroit to really be happy with this pick he definitely needs to have a jump, and he has not jumped yet so that is a possibility. The one issue is his health, which is why I will assume he will remain as a reliever.
Rating: B

Career Stats: 106-71 3.80 ERA 749 k’s 161 sv’s 1.17 WHIP

27. :CIN: select OF Pat Warrender
I think Pat Warrender has the potential to be a great outfielder if his peak can get up over the course of the years, because his vitals are good for his current overall. It will just be whether he peaks in the mid-80s or not that might make him not quite as good. I will give Sean and JPS the benefit of the doubt as Warrender has not jumped yet and who knows what he will look like. All his main vital stats are above his overall, and he has a pretty good arm, although his range is atrocious. He would probably end up as a DH, but they may use him in LF. He demolished the high school pitching in terms of contact, but was not a huge slugger, so it should be interesting.
Rating: B

Career Stats: .268 avg 637 hits 43 HR’s 303 RBI’s 43 SB’s

28. :CIN: select 2B Nick Williams
Nick Williams has some similar qualities compared to the 2B I drafted, who will likely not end up being as good as I had thought. I feel like Williams is going to be the same. His contact is under his overall, which is something I try to avoid, although it is only 1 under, it will just be interesting to see if they progress the same or whether it will go under more. He has a pretty bad eye, although that might be more with the lack of walks. I expect he will end up being decent because of his defense, and his hitting may not be atrocious, but he will probably not end up as being a long term starter in Cincinnati.
Rating: C+

Career Stats: .266 avg 1003 hits 119 HR’s 495 RBI’s 37 SB’s

29. :STL: select SP Vernon Riddle
Vernon Riddle’s best attribute is the fact he gives up a ton of ground balls. His control is over his overall, but not by much, and he did jump since the draft, but his control moved 4 and movement moved 9, which will likely mean his movement is going to grow by a lot consistently, and then GD may be stuck with a pitcher who has real high movement, and not as high in the other. I also am not too fond of his high school statsistics, and this does not always mean something, but he never really seemed to pitch that great even though he may not give up a ton of home runs.
Rating: C+

Career Stats: 102-82 4.03 ERA 979 k’s 1.38 WHIP

30. :TOR: select 1B Ryan Blake
I do not like Ryan Blake, and the main reason is his eye. His contact and power are above his overall, which is great, but one thing I have found is that the best 1B have great eyes, and Blake does not have that. He may end up still hitting well, but likely will not even be close to some of the other 1B drafted over the last couple years with the high eye. He also cannot play defense, so he will likely be a DH through his career. He has yet to jump, and so this may be good, and he smashed the ball in his last year of high school, and also hit fairly well, so maybe his eye will not hurt him as much as I think it will.
Rating: C

Career Stats: 30. 1B Ryan Blake .268 avg 489 hits 91 HR’s 306 RBI’s

[rockybull]

just wanna say, good job so far with this, i always like to read these, even if i disagree.

so, is mcgee a B- pick because he isn't that good or is it because i should have went in a different direction with the pick, since you said i have kodo?

i've been playing mogul since 2010 came out, i've never seen a 1b like mcgee in a ammy draft, and i've played in different leagues as well. the guy has solid speed as well and a pretty good baserunner for a 1b. he should be a pretty good hitter, have elite defense (best 1b defense in the file), and above average baserunning. you add all that up and he'll be quite valuable. mcgee has a shot to destroy righties and still be able to hit lefties competently. he has some of the best speed and baserunning ability for a 1b in this file, very few other starting 1b is close to him in this regard. he does it all, not just one aspect. no offense to redwine, i think he'll be a nice player, maybe even a better hitter (arguable) but he plays no defense, and you see a 1b like him in almost every single draft, low contact, good solid power and eye and doesn't have good defense. granted, you don't have to have an amazing defender at 1b, but when they do have it, gotta take notice, definitely a plus.

no idea how palencia can be a A+ rating and Mcgee a B- rating. mcgee looks better right now. mcgee was basically 17 his last year in HS with those numbers, and his overall numbers in HS were better than palencia. palencia is 1 year older. they both have same contact, mcgee has better power, better speed, much better eye, better health, and elite defense over palencia. mcgee also has better baserunning ability.

i took who i thought was best player avail, maybe it turns out others will be much better, which is fine, it happens. my plan is to have mcgee at 1b and kodo at dh. kodo doesn't have the greatest of health, so maybe i can protect him some and have him as a big time dh. montilliano will play LF, his HS and minor league defensive stats (it's very volatile, so i'm not gonna put a lot of stock in it, but i'll put enough in it to think he'll be fine) leads me to believe while he won't be a great defender, he shouldn't be horrendous, maybe a negative defender in the majors, but probably not as bad as people think, and if he is bad defensively, whatever. there were other good players avail, but i felt mcgee was best left on the board and could probably help me pretty soon as well. only time will tell i guess.

[GoIrish]

Rocky,

I think you did a fine job with the 2nd pick. On my draft board, I viewed this as a 4 player draft at the top of the draft. I thought there were 2 players that were capable of going #1 overall in Jasinski and McGee. They were my top tier of players my 1A and 1B. The next tier on my list was Baker and Alvarez as my 2A and 2B.

I don't have the file infront of me right now and I am going off memory but the only concern I think there is on McGee was his Senior year stats. They really did not play up to his vitals and I think that is why Matty and others did not view him as being an elite player. Time will tell but I think you got a good player and my line of thought is very similar to what Andy said about him on the podcast and what you said above. It is not often you get a player that can play good defense at 1st along with being a good hitter.

[AndyP]

McGee was the second best player in the draft. In my opinion, you're looking too hard at sketchy data to come to any other conclusion.

[Steal Third]

McGee was the second best player in the draft. In my opinion, you're looking too hard at sketchy data to come to any other conclusion.

Redwine is extremely nice, but I don't usually like taking a 1B that high unless he is really special. McGee is an unusual looking 1B.....speed and defense = that is rare combination. I think he was worthy of the number 2 pick whereas I don't think Redwine was.

[rockybull]

appreciate it goirish, andy and steal third.

like i said, i enjoy reading hokey's draft analysis every year, i disagree here, which is fine, but i do appreciate the effort that hokey put into this, he very well could be right with this. mcgee just looks unique to me, which maybe since nobody has really seen a 1b like him before, maybe some people thinks he's not gonna be that great, which is possible. i understand the senior HS stats may have worried some, but he was actually 17 years old during that time, and before that he was rock solid at very young ages. mcgee was just too dang interesting to pass up.

[hokeyrules]

I gave him the b- because he took a 1B when he had Kodo, when they could have used another pitcher or something who I think is better than the 1B. After all I said he was the best or second best 1B........... I just said selecting a 1B at 2nd pick is not what I would have done.

[mattynokes]

I gave him the b- because he took a 1B when he had Kodo, when they could have used another pitcher or something who I think is better than the 1B. After all I said he was the best or second best 1B........... I just said selecting a 1B at 2nd pick is not what I would have done.

I don't exactly like the McGee pick at #2, but basing it off of who a team already has at the position should hold no baring on liking our not liking the pick. That's just silly.

The best value is the best value. You can DH one, trade one, or have the young guy as a backup plan in case the other guys fails.

And just for the record. The reason I'm not high on McGee is because he profiles as a very low strikeout player, which suggests both his contact and eye are quite overrated.

[Steal Third]

keep 'em coming Hokey.....always a fun read and creates chatter!

[rockybull]

I gave him the b- because he took a 1B when he had Kodo, when they could have used another pitcher or something who I think is better than the 1B. After all I said he was the best or second best 1B........... I just said selecting a 1B at 2nd pick is not what I would have done.

i just think you should be giving out grades based on how good the player is at the spot they took the player. for the most part the gm's here knows their needs and plans better than other gm's.

last sim brino - 1b of the orioles was a 88/94 and already jumped, and he was looking like a stud, now this sim he got an injury and is now a 80/90, so he's going to drop some peak on his b-day. sure, he still has time to get good, but i don't think he'll be as good as what he looked just 1 sim ago. thing is you never know what the next sim holds, you'd be pretty foolish to have just 1 guy at each position and be confident that they will all develop good/great and never drop or get any injuries. you need back up plans. and if all goes well, and your other guys do develop, you can use a guy for trade bait.

i just think you should keep that in mind. i hope that kodo can stay healthy and be great, but a lot can change before he peaks, and it's possible he could have a quick peak end, so i don't know, but it's good to have options. i took who i thought was best player available. there are just never guarantees in mogul when developing specs. i'd be very happy if both kodo and mcgee develop into good starting players, but i also realize that is no guarantee, no matter how good they look today.