2060 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

Well, here we are. Still going strong after 5 seasons of reviews. I know I said I would starting re-reviewing classes after 5 seasons, but it's going to be something of waiting 8-10 years and doing just 1 re-review per class, rather than the multiple looks back, like I had planned. I'll say, overall, I think this was the worst draft class since my return to FCM (2054). However, this review probably won't reflect that, since there were some nice talent to be had early on.
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01. CF Ray Vizcaya
Generational talent? I believe so. He profiles a lot like Dylan Moffat, who by all means should be headed for the Hall of Fame. Vizcaya does lack the range you'd want from a CF, but the way I figure true range is (speed x .4 + range x .6), which puts him at 83 and still plenty of room to grow. Offensively the lower strikeouts are a little concern that his contact is inflated a bit. However, it looks like he should walk a good bit and he should be very dangerous on the bases. So, even if his low K's hold him back contact wise, he should make the most of his time on the base paths.

Grade:
Future Skills: 100 Con, 69 Pow, 92 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 1
Scouting File Score: 97.23 (Might be the highest score since I've been doing these)

02. SP Joe Schultz
I like him. I just like a couple of other pitchers better. A big thing that pops out at me is his high health. You'll find later on the pitchers that I like still have mid to high 80's health. But, YES, going even that little bit means A LOT! Think of the normal 93 overall in our file and then think of the normal 89 overall in our file. On the whole, the 93 is vastly better than the 89.

So, I believe Schultz' true potential will be curtailed by his high health. Though he still projects well and should be a very capable pitcher. Still another problem is that projection is based on him reaching his current 93 peak. That doesn't leave much room for growth to hit higher than his current peak, like others. There are others who project about the same with a decent amount less current upside. So, if all hit a 93 peak, other pitchers will look considerably better than Schultz.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 71 Pow, 91 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 3
Scouting File Score: 91.04

03. :sfg2: SP Martin Dutko
Yeah, DLee's back with his good picks. Here's already 1 of the pitcher's I like better than Schultz. Now, he doesn't have a lesser peak (with more room to grow), but I still feel he's a better pick. He's a very safe pick in knowing that even if he ultimately fails, with just 1 jump, he's MLB quality. I also took notice in the fact that he only has 65 endurance. When starting, pitchers tend to have at least low 70's endurance. And with how Mogul 14 works, if Dutko's endurance increases 5-7 points, it could mean that his power and/or movement see a boost without actually progressing.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 68 Pow, 91 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 14
Scouting File Score: 88.24

04. :phi2: SP Le'tron Harris
Here's a guy who projects about the same as Schultz while having a lesser peak. Harris should have amazing movement with solid control and power. He also looks like home runs off of him will be limited. His Fastball could be quite good and even though he won't have a second great pitch, his Splitter and Change should be quality.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 75 Pow, 92 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 11
Scouting File Score: 88.89

05. :tor3: SP Aaron Prather
What a real sneaky, good pick by Corey. He another of the arms I was talking about as being better than Schultz. Prather projects similar at just an 88 peak. If he reaches in the 90's, he'll be damn good. He has a beautiful repertoire, his initial base build is quite good, the HRs check out, and even the GB% is something you like to see. It just all adds up for a guy that you grin ear-to-ear and nod about.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 78 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 7
Scouting File Score: 89.70

06. :stl2: DH Eric Ivory
I've already reviewed this type of player, so I'm not going to spend more time coming up with new ways to say I don't like it. I'll just quote my James Hoffman review from 2056:

Should I sugarcoat this? No. I do not like this pick at all. Sure, he’ll have wonderful Contact and a great Eye. But he has no power, no speed, and no defense. There’s no doubt that he could be a .300 AVG, .375 OBP guy, but without Power or Speed he’s Marc Ramming (There’s an old FCM reference for ya)! He’ll simply be stuck on base without the ability to score. Slap hitters need to do something else (Speed or Defense) or they’re basically the guys you start when you have no good options.

Grade:
Future Skills: 99 Con, 66 Pow, 100 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 25
Scouting File Score: 85.91

07. :bal3: RF Clinton Borlase
He's an interesting draftee. He'll have amazing power potential, but I think he'll largely be a one trick pony. Certainly his contact won't get to any great levels and it doesn't appear a lot either. He may walk an above average amount, but I don't think enough to make you feel comfortable that if he has a down power year, he has something else to add offensively. His defense is quite good for RF. He'll have good range to go with decent speed and a pretty good arm as well.

Grade:
Future Skills: 75 Con, 94 Pow, 80 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 20
Scouting File Score: 87.03

08. :min2: SS Rafael Marzan
This is a great heads up pick. First, we already saw him drop and he only lost 1 peak point. Like I've said in the past, that's not something I'd bank on to happen every year. However, it suggests he probably won't peak out until at least 25. He's almost MLB ready. In FCM SS has turned into a defensive position. Marzan should be very quality in the field. Probably not elite, but certainly above average. He has solid speed and looks like he could walk a lot. How he'll hit for average is an unknown, but regardless, he'll still have value both offensively and defensively.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 65 Pow, 92 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 19
Scouting File Score: 87.09

09. :pit2: SP Demaine Harris
So, someone whined like a bitch about me missing this pick. But I have a question, does he look like a bitch? Either way, I think Harris plays like a bitch. He looks appealing, but probably has HR issues that will always hold him back. He'll have very good control and movement, but I feel the HRs will be a major obstacle for him.

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 80 Pow, 90 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 2
Scouting File Score: 93.70

10 :mil2: 1B Salvatore Urritia
I feel like this may go down as the Trojan-Enz Boner of the Week Award. He looks good, but I don't think his progression was taken into consideration. He jumped 4 overall and 5 peak already, so unless there's some luck involved, he's going to drop (likely to 83 or 84 peak) before he gets any better. By all means he'll have good power and should be startable, but there are still better 1B on the board, even ones that have already jumped as well.

Grade:
Future Skills: 78 Con, 91 Pow, 83 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 67
Scouting File Score: 79.84

11. :chw2: 1B Noah Steger
This guy may be the best all-around bat in the draft. His power and walk potential are sky high. Yes, he's already jumped, but his peak should still hold up quite well. Being a lefty bat is great. Some will claim it means he can't play against LHP. I don't think that's the case. If he reaches the heights of his upside, he'll either still be viable against southpaws or good enough to deal with it since he'll still likely face a righty reliever 1 or 2 times anyways. Even if he isn't viable vs LHP, it's easy to find a 1B that crushes them. Steger falling helps make up for JHC's miscue on trading down. If he has generous peak years, Cooperstown could be in his future.

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 99 Pow, 93 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 9
Scouting File Score: 89.46

12. :min2: SP Noah Ashe
This is about where the pitching talent falls off the table. Ashe does have a little home run issue, but he's just 17 and there's plenty of time to grow out of that problem. He should have some pretty good secondary offerings to go with what I imagine will be an average Fastball. His build should be quite balanced and will make a good, but not great rotation arm.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 80 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 4
Scouting File Score: 90.88

13. RP Miguel Bueno
Michael Good no es bueno. I'm leery of his control developing and while he is just 17, his home runs looks awfully high. The projections have some faith in him, but I feel his control will come up short and he'll be a reliever if he makes it to major league quality.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 75 Pow, 88 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 13
Scouting File Score: 88.61

14. SS Okura Takahashi
Well, he's fast and can walk a bit, so that's good. He also should have good range. But I think that's about where the fascination with him ends. He's not a great base runner, so his speed doesn't mean as much and overall defensively, he's maybe an average SS. While his arm and range project at slightly above average, but he'll always be plagued with miscues. Offensively, he doesn't give a confident projection. Maybe his contact develops more than the projections, but without either comforting defensive vitals or assuredly good offense in the future, I'm not sure he's a risk you want to take this early.

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 71 Pow, 80 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 35
Scouting File Score: 84.75

15. :mil2: SP Nick Davis
These type of players are always interesting. Given his initial base, he doesn't project to have good control. However, his amateur stats don't suggest he has control issues that he won't overcome. And then there's the times when Mogul is Mogul and doesn't follow the normal progression paths, so his control could progress to solid starter levels. If he doesn't, he's probably a reliever or a bottom of the rotation SP. But he'll have great movement and should easily find a role somehow.

Grade:
Future Skills: 77 Con, 83 Pow, 92 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 44
Scouting File Score: 82.94

16. :sea2: RP Chris Harris
I'm a little unsure about some of the others on whether they can start or not, but I would be more than shocked if Harris actually ends up with starter worthy control. He looks like he's built for the bullpen. I don't see his control getting higher than the mid 70's even in a best case scenario. Though, he should have quality power and movement. As long as his control gets above that 70 threshold, he should be a usable arm.

Grade:
Future Skills: 72 Con, 85 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 51
Scouting File Score: 82.09

17. LF Ron Roddis
This is probably good value for him at this pick, but there's good reasons why he fell. His range and speed aren't very good as well as having less than optimal power for when those first two skills aren't up to par. It's a big question of how much value he'll actually add. He does have a pretty good arm, so it makes up for some of his lack of range. He should have a pretty good eye and if his power doesn't develop a ton, his contact should be good as well. I think he'll become a starter worthy player, just not one that you'd rely on as a heavy hitter.

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 84 Pow, 86 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 22
Scouting File Score: 86.47

18. :col2: SP Mike Salem
Consider me a fan. He shows low HRs, vitals that are all at or above his overall, and endurance + health that are good, but not too high. He should have a high quality Fastball and a Change that's a good enough secondary pitch. I don't think he's a guy who'll become a top of the rotation, but he should be a good arm in the future. He's that I feel his scouting file projection doesn't quite do him justice.

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 76 Pow, 83 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 48
Scouting File Score: 82.52

19. :was2: DH Josh Ahrens
I feel he was overlooked by some, and probably because he doesn't look like a good option in the field and will have to DH. It's not terribly bad to slot these types down on your draft board a bit, but I think he fell too far. He should have a killer eye and walk a lot. Both his contact and power should be in the mid to upper 80's ranges, so he should be a guy that's gets on base and does the other things enough to be a pretty valuable bat. If I had to guess, I'd say around .275 AVG, 25/20 Power, and 80 BB - which makes him around a .825-.850 OPS hitter.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 85 Pow, 96 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 15
Scouting File Score: 88.08

20. :chw2: LF Rick Velchev
He certainly has the power profile, but I question hie eye. He won't be great defensively, but he will suffice. It will all rest on how his contact comes around. But if it does, while still being a one trick pony, he could be good. I just don't think he'll be a reliable and consistent bat

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 98 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 27
Scouting File Score: 85.82

21. :cin2: RP Derek Wallbank
I can't help but feel this pick is turrible, just turrible. His vitals are behind the eight ball and he has high health. RPs do sometimes have crazy development paths, so he may progress considerably better than his projections, but even still, I don't see him being a top reliever that you want to rely on in the 8th or 9th inning. Best case scenario, he's in that 3rd or 4th RP tier.

Grade:
Future Skills: 76 Con, 68 Pow, 77 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 103
Scouting File Score: 75.14

22. :mil2: RF Travis Stanely
He's not a bad player, but I feel he's certain 2nd round talent. He's pretty good defensively, but he doesn't have anything that sets him apart offensively. If he were faster, had contact that looked, or even looked like he'd walk a ton then I'd be more on board. He looks the part of a guy who will be startable, but someone you don't hesitate to upgrade.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 76 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 36
Scouting File Score: 84.69

23. SP Tim Robertson
I want to say I like him, but I have a hard time liking a pitcher whenever Mogul gives them any amateur years with very high HR numbers (2059 and 2057). His vital projections are good and ones that you feel if he exceeds his peak, then he'll look very good. The big question will be if the HRs do indeed haunt him. If he develops out of the HR problems (or doesn't have them at all), then he'll be solid with a great Curve and a good enough Fastball and Cutter.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 86 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 6
Scouting File Score: 89.93

24. :sfg2: CF Ervin Thomas
He's quite intriguing. He has good speed (but a relatively poor base runner). He has a good contact + eye combo, but show both walks and strikeouts. He then has phenomenal range, but a terrible arm. He's basically the ultimately ying and yang prospect. His vitals shown turn out very pleasing to the eye, but how he'll actually perform is an uncertainty. I figure he'll certainly be starter worthy, but he'll probably look like a .300/.375 and 40 steal player, but may produce more like a .275/.325 and 20 steal player. All that said, he's more than worth the price of admission and I'm surprised a guy who has vitals like him lasted this long.

Grade:
Future Skills: 92 Con, 65 Pow, 84 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 9
Scouting File Score: 89.59

25. 1B Joel Blake
He projects as having near-elite to elite power and eye, so I'm a little surprised he lasted this long. I understand that his contact is a little shaky, but as long as he gets above 70 vs RHP, I'd feel confident in his hitting. He walked at least 30 times each of his high school years and if you don't know, that's a lot! He looks like he'd already walk at an above average clip in the majors. I usually stay conservative in grading my picks, unless there's a generally consensus that the player was very good, but I can't help but think I got a middle of the order bat.

Grade:
Future Skills: 75 Con, 94 Pow, 93 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 26
Scouting File Score: 85.91

26. C Dustan Spolsino
I fail to see much value here. He's got a weak arm, he's slow, and he doesn't have power much. I don't see a scenario where he can either be a defensive stalwart at a premium position, enough power to be a DH, or speed to give him something when the other offensive vitals are lacking. He does have a good eye and I think he'll walk to a good clip, but nothing like what the previous pick, Blake, projects. He seems like Jose Delarosa in a new form.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 79 Pow, 90 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 16
Scouting File Score: 87.60

27. :laa2: 1B Logan MacComie
I'm probably being a little unfair to him, but I just can't seem to like him. He projects decent enough and he's under 21, but there's still just something about him that makes me uneasy. He should have solid contact and power to go along with a decent eye. I'd hesitate to even call him a #5 hitter, but a solid #6 hitter is well within reach and he should become a starter. Though, another thing working against him is his defense. He's capable enough to play 1B, but he's easily the type that you hope you don't actually have to play in the field and can DH.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 84 Pow, 80 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 50
Scouting File Score: 82.44

28. SP Armando Aquino
He looks the part of a quality pitcher with good control and power, but I always get a little worried when their projections have them as peaking with higher control than movement. It can suggest HR or OBA issues. These type of starters look really, but leave you wondering why they fall short of expectations. Some of these types make, so there's hope. He'll also have a nice repertoire. No pitch will be great in the end, but I'd expect for all 3 pitches to stay be above average.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 76 Pow, 83 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 17
Scouting File Score: 87.55

29. SP Jace Stites
I think he may be looked back as one of the steals of the first round - I like him better than the previous 5 pitchers taken. He should have a very good Fastball and a solid repertoire overall. He looks like he could be a pretty decent strikeout pitcher and doesn't look to have home run issues. If he gets into the 90's, he could be very dangerous.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 80 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 18
Scouting File Score: 87.13

30. :mia: RF Adam Shaffer
I'm not sure if this was a mistake, but hokey actually took a player that projects to walk. A lot. I think he, too, is another steal. Again, people are probably scared off from his fielding, but it's glovework that's more important for OFs and Shaffer's glovework will be fine. Plus he's got a good arm and decent enough speed that he isn't a rock in the outfield. Other than walking a lot, he should eventually develop good power. That is a great value pick and a bat at 18 years old that should have gone off the board before this.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 84 Pow, 95 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 21
Scouting File Score: 86.91

31. :chw2: SP Rocky MacCalmont
I'd rather his control be a little higher on draft day and he has a couple of seasons of rather high home runs. He should have a couple of pretty good pitches and his projected vitals aren't terrible. I'm just that worried about a guy who shows a 1.79 HR/9 in their amateur stats. However, given the circumstances around the pitching depth in this draft, I can't fault someone too much for getting a guy with the kind of projected movement Mac should have.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 80 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 5
Scouting File Score: 89.99

[gillyd]

:PIT: took Demaine Harris at 9.

Your dead to me matty!

[mattynokes]