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2049 Draft Analysis
#1
I only looked at the draft file, so did not look at how players have progressed since the draft file.

All Florida and Kansas City picks are rated by your favourite Indians GM Sean.


1. :LAA: Select OF Peter Vaccari
I am going to say that Chris made a great pick and really whether you like to build hitting or pitching first would cause you to decide who would be the first pick. Either way Chris will be happy with how Vaccari comes along, although I doubt he will ever be Moffatt. One scary thing is he did drop between opening day and the draft, so whether that affects him jumping this season could be something that is worrisome. His steal tendency is also not super high, so it will be interesting to see whether he uses his speed at full potential.
Rating: A+

2. :PIT: Select P Nate Copeland
In this draft there was 1a, 1b, 1c, and possibly a 1d, and Pittsburgh got one of them with their pick. Copeland looks great, his control is so much above his overall and movement which is great, he has good minor league numbers and appears to keep the ball in the park. His GB% is high, and he has yet to jump, so although the pirates really wanted Vaccari, this may be better for them in the long run.
Rating: A+

3. :OAK: Select P Speedy Canamar
Here is your 1c, although I actually like him a little more than Copeland. The reason being that his ground ball% is higher, his fastball is already quite high in terms of its rating, his control and movement are both still above his overall, and when looking at his stats, he does not give up a lot of home runs. Now he is older, so it makes sense he is more along, but of course Andy was not going to let this guy go by, and the AL West should be scared to see Canamar, being at worst a number 2 starter for Oakland in the next few years.
Rating: A+

4. :SFG: Select 1B Greg Tyerman
This is where the A+ end, and this is not to say Tyerman is bad, just not someone who should have been drafted at pick 4. For one his contact and his eye is by no means amazing, so really the OBP may not be so good for him. He does have the benefit of being a lefty, and still being 17, but he also had already jumped this season, and he looks like a defensive nightmare, better suited for the DH role. To me he looks very similar to Verity, and if Verity had a higher peak, I would like him a lot more than Tyerman, and Verity went 20th, so really I think this early in the draft San Francisco, missed getting a couple better players in Starkey or Pinnick. At least the power looks very threatening here.
Rating: C

5. :SFG: Select OF John Theobold
The last pick by San Francisco was not bad, just not really what I would have expected when you get three picks in a row, but this one was a huge miss for me. For starters he does not have much power, his contact is lower than his overall, he as above average speed, but nothing great, and he has already jumped this season. Meaning he will likely peak somewhere in the 85-87 range, although depending on progression that could rise or fall. Either way, that means his contact likely will not reach 90 unless he does hit 90 peak, but his eye is really good, and fielding is great. To me in a league where there are a ton of outfielders now, this is the type of pick that if you do like him in the first round, you get him somewhere in pick 20-25. Starkey is a better OF, and is similar to the first pick, but not as good, yet you take Theobold.
Rating: D-

6. :SFG: Select C Max McGuicken
Now when I first saw McGuicken I must say I really liked him, but then I noticed his health was under 70 and so as a catcher I stopped liking him instantly. However, if his health is not a big issue for you, then he could be a good catcher. Defensively, his arm is very good, his handling is pretty decent (I believe in handling still), although his fielding and range are a little low, they do affect catchers a little less in my belief, but they can also improve as he develops. Offensively with the huge upside his eye could reach anywhere from 80-85 he has decent power, and his contact is a little low, but not terrible. The big bonus is he is 16, he has a ton of years to wait, and reminds me of my own catcher in Thorpe, where I felt like I waited an eternity for him to actually show he was going to be as good as he turned out. His high school numbers show an improvement in the last two years, and for their sake, let us hope that McGuicken can reach a balance of the last two years, and not his first two years.
Rating: B

7. :KCR: Select OF Mitchell Starkey
Has a decent sized ceiling and has very good speed and plays outstanding defense. He is only 17 years old, so there is a lot of time for him to develop. If his contact and Eye can reach anywhere near his peak, he can become a very good player.
Rating: B+

8. :ARI: Select P Ken Pinnick
Pinnick was the fourth best pitcher in the draft, and was drafted eighth, and for Arizona, who really needed to replenish their future pitching, he landed a golden nugget. Arguably he and Canamar are very similar, and the only big difference is their age and how far they have developed. Pinnick also has more upside, and had not jumped, and really should have been pick 4 or 5, depending on how you view Starkey. If Starkey did not look like he was just a little below Vaccari in terms of how he could be, then Pinnick would not have made it to Arizona, but either way there is no reason why Pinnick made it out of the top 5. Already his fastball is almost a 70, his stats show how he does not give up that many home runs, and his gb% is at 45%, but still in relation to home runs, is a very good thing.
Rating: A+

9. :TBR: Select OF Ken Plowman
I feel like Plowman was a pick that maybe Steal Third rushed on, as he was hoping to get Pinnick. When I see Plowman, I see a guy who has a great power and good power, but will never make contact with the ball, and who has great fielding, but may struggle throwing from CF to 2B. He is just one of those outfielders I hate, and is the type of player that usually is drafted by the White Sox. His college and high school numbers definitely show he has great power, and apparently makes good contact there as well, but I do not see it continuing in the majors. I could be totally wrong, but these are the type of players I always tell people to stay away from, and the only way to ever pick him is in the very late 1st or 2nd.
Rating: D

10. :PHI: Select OF Max Zambrano
Zambrano could be a good DH, but that is about it. He does not have a great eye, but his contact and power are both above his overall, unfortunately because of his splits they are barely above. The good news for Zambrano is he has not jumped, but from the looks of it his eye may only ever really be average, his contact and power may equal right around his peak or overall, but unlikely to be higher, and the fact he can only DH because his fielding is atrocious, puts him in a really tough position for a lot of teams. His splits also hurt, as he should be very good against lefties, but it will be interesting to see how the splits equal out as he progresses. His high school and college numbers show that he does make good contact and has some power, but the strikeouts are not good, which will be a really large weakness for him.
Rating: C

11. :CHW: Select OF Reggie Horton
I feel like this is the second year in a row I can say something nice about JHC’s pick and this makes me happy. Also the third best OF drafted so far is also a good thing when he was actually the sixth drafted. His splits are almost even which is great for a switch hitter, his contact and power are very close to his power, which is also good, but what he will need is for him to get a jump so that he can actually reach the 90s in contact and power. His fielding is not bad in terms of throwing the ball and moving towards it, however his issue is apparently catching the ball or picking it up off the ground. So it will be interesting to see if he improves defensively, well enough for Chicago to be able to put him in the outfield without causing harm to their own team. Either way I think this was a much better selection than a few of the other OF’s drafted before.
Rating : B-

12. :FLA: Select SS Omar Zelaga
I thought he should have gone in the top 10. Very surprised he fell out of there. He plays very good defense, has a very good eye. If his contact can at least become average, he will be a very good back of the lineup SS.
Rating: A-

13. :MIN: Select P Nat Langpap
Nat Langpap is one of those pitchers that has a whole lot of questions and could be a gigantic risk. However, Minnesota has made a bunch of these and some have worked out. Overall I like him less than some of the pitchers taken later, but he at least has a huge upside and is very young. His high school numbers are terrible, although he does not let up a lot of home runs which is a good thing. His control is above his overall and movement, but not a lot and with being that young and a lot of time to progress, it may end up being below it, or it could stay above and he become a really good pitcher. As good as he could become, I still do not think he will be as good as Minnesota is hoping, and to me he is as risky as some of the other pitchers taken later, but if they progress the way they are thought to, then those other ones will be better than Langpap.
Rating: C

14. :SDP: Select P Beau Bush
Really love the pick, really the biggest issue with him is his age birthday and upside. If he does not get a jump in this season, with his birthday coming up, he will need this last WB to give him any sort of shot of being anything more than a 5th starter or long relief pitcher. The good news is San Diego needed some more pitching prospects to replenish what they traded, and he could be very good in the future for them. His later high school and college numbers are very good, for the most part he does seem to keep the ball in the park, he has a great fastball already, and has a high ground ball percentage. He has many things that make me think he will end up being serviceable for the Padres, however, there is always a chance he flames out like Jonah Smith from last year.
Rating: B+

15. :BOS: Select C Alan Herschler
Really terrible pick overall. Offensively his splits make him so bad that he the power is barely above his overall on righties, and his contact is below, his eye is really low as well. It just smells of an offensive disaster, and his defense is not good either, with an average arm. His handling is decent, which is probably the best thing about Herschler. His stats show that he is not a huge power threat nor, one for contact or OBP.
Rating: D

16. :TBR: Select P Tracy Dearman
Due to the age, I actually liked Dearman more than Bush, and also think he will end up being better. His control is higher than Bush, he is younger, and they give up about the same amount of home runs. The one issue is he had already jumped, but if he gets a couple more good jumps during progression, and a good WB then he could easily make it as a number two starter. His fastball is not dominant, but his other pitches look like they are going to be what he uses, and really overall Tampa should be happy with this pick.
Rating: A

17. :PHI: Select P Paul Tubbs
I really think Philly hit the mark here, although really a lot of the pitchers drafted in the first round were good. His control is above both his movement and overall, he has a high ground ball percentage, his numbers in high school and college were very good, and he does not give up a ton of home runs. He still has the potential to jump during the year, and he looks like his cutter is going to be really special. I think he has the chance to be a real star for Philly, especially if he gets the right progressions over the next few years, and I think outside of Dearman was probably the best pick of a pitcher after Pinnick.
Rating: A

18. :LAD: Select P Shaun Murray
Shaun Murray has the potential of being a good pitcher, but I do not think he was as good as other pitchers selected after him. The big thing is that his control is below his movement and overall, and I have yet to see real good progression from these types of players. His high school and college numbers were also good, he keeps the ball in the park, and he has yet to jump which are all big benefits, however his upside is not huge at only 20. Either way by no means was this a terrible selection, just potential better options.
Rating: C+

19. :DET: Select P Vince Poulson
This is one of a few other pitchers that I thought were better than Murray, and Detroit should be happy to get him at this spot. His control is well above his movement and overall, and as his movement and overall grows his control and movement should be similar which should make him a good option for a number two or three starter. He looks like he will have a decent fastball, and he has a high ground ball ratio. He did drop which is a little scary, but I think this will work out better than Jonah Smith for Detroit.
Rating: A-

20. :CLE: Select 1B Geoffrey Verity
I actually think in the long scheme of things that Verity will be better than Tyerman. Verity is going to have trouble with lefties, but he has tremendous power and a great eye. His defense is lacking, which will likely make him a DH, but with the team that Sean currently has, he will fit right in with all the power. He is still pretty young, and has mashed at the lower levels, and I think if he jumps he definitely has the potential to put it to Tyerman who was picked 16 picks before him.
Rating: A-

21. :HOU: Select P Brant Legg
Legg is another one I like over Murray, and although he is farther away than some of the pitchers, there are just so many things that look good about him. His control is only slightly better than his overall, but he is young, he has a really high ground ball percentage, his circle change looks like it will be his dominant pitch, and he keeps the ball in the park. His numbers in high school are not great, which is something to watch for, but with what looks like a rebuild soon happening in Houston, it may be best for them to get a nice young prospect who needs some work.
Rating: B

22. :WAS: Select P Greg Millett
This is the player I really wanted in Florida, as he looks pretty good, but as always with a 16 year old there is a lot of risk. He has a great control for his overall which is a lot above his movement, he has a high ground ball percentage, he is only 16, all of which are great things about him. One downside, might be the fact his numbers are not that great in high school, and the fact that the growth of 16 year olds can sometimes be very random. I see him either becoming someone who could be a really strong number two pitcher, or someone who ends up being a fringe player.
Rating: A

23. :CLE: Select P Jeff Putnam
I feel like I could just copy and paste one of the other people’s analysis from him. He is literally almost the same, high control, good ground ball percentage, only 19, fairly decent high school numbers, has a great curve, and with his movement so far above his overall, I think he will be great. His big downfall is he is 82 peak, so he really needs to get that jump in order for him to be a serious future contender for Sean’s team.
Rating: A

24. :KCR: Select C Alex Stark
I think there were better players on the board. He is another long term project with his age being 17. He does have a high ceiling but I don't think in the long term he will project as a catcher unless his arm improves significantly.
Rating: C+

25. :TOR: Select P Gordon Zimm
I like him about the same as Murray, but possibly a bit less. One downside is that his control is lower than movement and overall, these types of pitchers do not really progress as well as they did in 2014 or 2011, his high school numbers and college numbers are not that good, and he is a lefty, and a lot of people hate lefties in this league. I tend to think they are not quite as good, but there are the odd ones that do pitch fairly well. Regardless, not a huge fan of this pick with Austin Johnson still available.
Rating: C

26. :SEA: Select OF Matt Strype
This is one of the worst picks of the draft. Contact is lower than overall, he has slightly better power than his overall, his defense is average, his eye is slightly above average, he is one of those OF’s I hate for the most part. The odd time they actually become good, but to be honest would not be surprised to see Strype be a major bust. He does have relatively good high school numbers though.
Rating: D

27. :OAK: Select P Austin Johnson
I think Andy made the right selection here with Johnson, he has high control, is only 17, good ground ball. Basically he is like a few of the other pitchers before that have the high control vital. Now the one downside is his high school pitching numbers, but not everyone takes into account that, and so I still think Johnson is a very good pitcher like the ones drafted before.
Rating: A

28. :STL: Select C Jeremiah Vinaja
Defensively love Vinaja, offensively not so much. His arm is never going to be amazing, but his handling and fielding are great. As well, if his arm is just average that is okay, if he calls a good game behind the plate. Offensively, he is a righty, and so his splits are not that great for against right handed pitchers, putting both contact and power against righties below his overall which could spell trouble. He does have a good eye, and he is 19 so lots of time to grow, but he may just end up being a bench catcher when all is said and done.
Rating: C+

29. :FLA: Select P Jeff Corliss
With what was on the board he was a pretty good and safe pick. He is a player that is on a fast track and should be a good back end of the rotation type of SP. If Hokey gets lucky and his fastball gets a boost, he could become a much better SP.
Rating: B

30. :KCR: Select 2B Miguel Martinez
There were 2 middle infielders taken within 10 picks of this pick that would have been much better choices. He does not field well, he does not hit well. I don't think he becomes anything other than a future bench player or AAA emergency type of player.
Rating: D
Florida GM: 2010 - 2032
Texas GM: 2033 - 2040
Florida GM: 2041 - 2103
Toronto GM: 2104 - ?
World Champion: Florida: 2015, 2027, 2053, 2059, 2062, 2064 Texas: 2037
NL Champion: 2014, 2015, 2020, 2027, 2030, 2037 2048, 2050, 2053, 2059, 2062, 2064
Best Season Record: 117-45 (2060)
2011 - 2032: 2263 - 1359 .625%
2033 - 2040: 617 - 679 .476%
2041 - 2103: 5156 - 4888 .513% 
2104 - ? 0-0 0% 

Total Record: 8036 - 6926 .537%
Best Pitcher Ever: Donovan Pace
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Messages In This Thread
2049 Draft Analysis - by hokeyrules - 10-12-2014, 02:10 PM
RE: 2049 Draft Analysis - by hokeyrules - 10-13-2014, 10:17 AM
RE: 2049 Draft Analysis - by decker91 - 10-13-2014, 01:55 PM
RE: 2049 Draft Analysis - by gillyd - 10-13-2014, 11:06 PM
RE: 2049 Draft Analysis - by Geaux Blue - 10-13-2014, 11:07 PM

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