2045 Draft Analysis

[hokeyrules]

1st :CHC: Select SP Alec Wigfall
For me although Wigfall looks decent, I would not have taken him first overall. His stats are okay, and his homer ratio is not that bad, but really his vitals are already showing he will have high movement and he does not have a lot of upside left. Now for a team that maybe will be competing in a few years, this could be good, as I think he was better than Lamdanay, but overall, I would have stayed away from the 22 year old pitcher in the first pick.
Rating: C-

Career Stats: 43-70 4.97 ERA 618 k’s 1.36 WHIP

2nd :MIN: Select SP Kevin Gully
Best pitcher in the draft in my books, drafted 2nd overall. Very good pick for TheNation, especially after me hammering his decision last year (which right now looks as though I was right) I overheard some people not liking him and others saying he could be like Corey Hill, and as of right now I would say he will be more like Corey Hill. I could be wrong, but I definitely think this was a wonderful pick, although his HR are a bit high.
Rating: A+

Career Stats: 165-187 4.31 ERA 2226 k’s 1.28 WHIP

3rd :TEX: Select SP Manuel Lamdany
He may be a slightly better pick than Wigfall, but overall, I am still not that fond of Lamdany. He is another one with great stats, and his vitals are similar to Wigfall where his movment will likely be his best attribute, and he does not have a ton of upside either. Like Wigfall, he will need a big jump for me to rescind my rating on him.
Rating: C-

Career Stats: 70-118 5.36 ERA 1125 k’s 1.51 WHIP

4th :TBR: Select SP Brian Jennings
He is like Wigfall and Lamdany, but in my eyes worse. Higher movement already, although he does have more upside, but he also seems to pitch a lot of home run balls. My guess is that if I am wrong on him, I will be wrong on the first and third picks as well. Because of these three pitchers I also would have gone with maybe a hitter, as overall I thought the hitting was strong in this class, and overall found the pitching a bit weak.
Rating: C-

Career Stats: 39-56 5.15 ERA 576 k’s 1.42 WHIP

5th :CHW: Select SP James Fleming
Cue Jose Seratos from last year, but not as bad. His high school numbers are atrocious, he gives up the long ball, he walks pitchers frequently. The best thing for him is that his vitals look like they could potentially be good, but it also looks as though he has jumped. He will be a long time away from being ready, and really may never be that great, but time will tell, personally once again would have went with a hitter over a pitcher in this situation.
Rating: C-

Career Stats: 284-196 3.73 ERA 2639 k’s 1.24 WHIP

6th :ATL: Select CA Jeremiah Felex
Finally not a pitcher! A catcher which happens to be one of the positions that is hard to find in this league. I would say Felex is probably the third best catcher in this draft, although the other ones are not that far off. Was this Atlanta’s best pick no, but the splits are not that bad, he has a great arm, pretty good eye, decent stats in the minors. The one thing that is difficult with catchers is their progression, and all the main hitting vitals are under his overall. His age also does scare me a bit with those vitals.
Rating: C+

Career Stats: .227 avg 220 hits 16 HR’s 110 RBI’s

7th :TEX: Select CA Marc Gagg
I would say that this pick is the second best catcher in the draft. His eye is a little weak and overall his vitals are not that great, but they are around his overall, and he is only 17. His arm is great, although his health is low which is scary. If he progresses well he should be a fairly good catcher, and at 17 has a lot of time to grow, but this pick also does not go with Lamdany, as by the time Gagg will be ready Lamdany will be closer to 30.
Rating: B-

Career Stats: .270 avg 1532 hits 207 HR’s 780 RBI’s

8th :ATL: Select SP Dan Baikalova
I personally think of the pitchers that were taken I liked him over the other ones. His HS numbers have been fairly good, his vitals are what I like with higher power and although his control is a bit low, he could be like an Iraldo. Overall I think this was a good selection here if you needed pitching, and am a bit surprised he lasted this long.
Rating: B+

Career Stats: 63-62 4.43 ERA 836 k’s 1.41 WHIP

9th :CIN: Select 1B Cornelius Sandaval
John Golia, Mickey Bailey meet Cornelius Sandaval. All three are very similar, and I was wrong on Golia, hope I am right on Bailey, and Sandaval looks destined to be the same. His defense is not that strong, and low contact, but lots of time to improve, great stats in HS and College, and plenty of upside.
Rating: A+

Career Stats: .205 avg 653 hits 174 HR’s 565 RBI’s

10th :ATL: Select 3B Fred Major
Best 3B in this draft by far, great vitals, in defense and contact. His eye is a little weak, but could be like Musgrove. He may never have much power. The one thing that is scary is his splits, but I am sure with the upside he has he will be one hell of a 3B. Best pick by Atlanta so far in this first round.
Rating: A+

Career Stats: .268 1684 hits 137 HR’s 729 RBI’s

[hokeyrules]

11th :ATL: Select SP Matt Trott
Previous pick by Atlanta, I loved, this one, hated. He has great stats in the minors, but his vitals are terrible. Already such high movement, for some reason the game has him set as a closer in the usage, really I do not think he will be very good at all. I would say he may never be more than a 4/5 in terms of rotation.
Rating: C

Career Stats: 18-24 5.87 ERA 271 k’s 23 SV’s 1.75 WHIP

12th :COL: Select 1B Salvatore Valensia
Vitals wise, Valensia looks like he will be good, but then you see his splits. 13 different from righties to lefties to me spells trouble. His power and eye may help him a lot, and he has a lot of upside, but he really needs to see an improvement over time in his right handed hitting, in order for him to be anything more than a backup or platoon. At 12th pick, I would want something more than platoon, especially when the steal of the draft to me is coming up.
Rating: C

Career Stats: .178 avg 31 hits 1 HR 19 RBI’s

13th :SDP: Select OF Manon Freydel
To me the steal of the draft was an OF, just not this one. Overall he cannot particularly field well, although his hitting vitals are good, and his splits are not that bad either. He also has a lot of upside, which makes him better than some OF drafted previously, but I would have went for a type of player not found on most teams and that would be the next pick.
Rating: C

Career Stats: .233 avg 91 hits 10 HR’s 38 RBI’s

14th :SEA: Select OF Steve Liggett
To me this pick was the steal of the draft. He is no Enrico Romero, or Moffat, but he will be a very good leadoff. The one thing is his eye, but that is okay, as well he is not a lefty, but I think he will still do fine, his splits are not terrible. He also does not have high health which can always be a problem for speedy players, but everything else about him shows he will be a clear cut top of the line leadoff hitter. He also has high steal tendency which is quite important.
Rating: A+

Career Stats: .292 avg 167 hits 7 HR’s 72 RBI’s 22 SB’s

15th :MIL: Select SP Joe Thurber
I do like this pick, and he was one of the better pitchers remaining. He has good numbers, and his vitals look like they will come around once his movement catches up with the rest of his vitals. He has a lot of upside, and definitely needs some WB, or some good jumps to make him a very solid 2/3 but I do still think this is a good pick at this spot.
Rating: B-

Career Stats: 73-79 4.83 ERA 723 k’s 1.40 WHIP

16th :CHW: Select CA Mike Paulus
Of the four catchers I think he is the worst. His splits of a difference of 9 are huge when your contact is only 55 against righties. He is 17 so there is a chance it can even out a bit more, but his eye is not particularly strong, either, which to me makes this a very big risk in him being a stellar catcher. As of right now I see him nothing more than a backup catcher, but this could change.
Rating: C

Career Stats: .231 avg 760 hits 159 HR’s 446 RBI’s

17th :ATL: Select SP Max Combs
I am a little curious how Rocky passed him for Thurber, as I think Combs has the potential to be a solid 2/3 jus t progressing the way he is. He has very solid HS numbers, and is not giving a lot of home runs up. His control is higher than movement right now, although it will end up likely being less, but overall I think he has the potential to be a fairly good starter for Atlanta. Especially with the crazy amount of upside he has. I see him similar to Baikalova.
Rating: B+

Career Stats: 6-13 4.67 ERA 284 k’s 1.52 WHIP

18th :ATL: Select RP Travis McHalfey
Stang should stay away from back to back picks. Once again last pick I loved. This pick, not so much. Sure he is 16 and has a lot of potential, but his HS numbers are repulsive. That may also be due to the fact of him starting a bunch of games and having no endurance, but I do not really like him that much. His movement is also already his highest vital, and I just do not see him being all that effective.
Rating: C-

Career Stats: 6-11 8.27 ERA 62 k’s 2.10 WHIP

19th :PHI: Select SP Antonio Maddera
Dlee drafted a decent pitcher, but he is another pitcher that I see being near the end of the rotation if he makes it because it looks as though his movement will be the highest over the others and probably by a lot as it is the highest vital already. The one good thing about him is his stats are good in HS and college.
Rating: C

Career Stats: 24-32 4.82 ERA 319 k’s 1.33 WHIP

20th :NYM: Select RP Peter McCliverty
I think this pitcher will be a decent pitcher in terms of being converted from a closer to starter. His vitals may not end up being that great as his movement is highest, but that may also be due to him currently being set up as a reliever. I do like his stats in HS and I think he does have the chance to be a solid pitcher in the long term.
Rating: B

Career Stats: 62-54 3.98 ERA 758 k’s 92 SV’s 1.35 WHIP

[hokeyrules]

21st :TOR: Select OF Jeffrey Honeyfield
I think Honeyfield is going to be quite an amazing outfielder. If he had more speed, than I would expect him to go in the top 5. He is a lefty and in my eyes a 3 tool OF, and if his speed goes up more than 4 tool. He will never be a big home run hitter, but his eye and defense, just make him so good. He will likely end up being a trade piece for Andy, but best selection this late in the draft.
Rating: A+

Career Stats: .291 avg 2447 hits 18 HR’s 740 RBI’s 173 SB’s

22nd :BAL: Select CA Paul Stott
So here is the best catcher in the draft in my eyes. The one thing that scares me some are his splits, but otherwise he basically looks like a Dean Thorpe in my opinion. He has average contact, great power, great eye, and great defense. What more can you ask for in a catcher. He may end up being more like Vallepando except with handling and arm swapped. Which is a good catcher, and teams should probably start looking at him.
Rating: A+

Career Stats: .251 avg 523 hits 79 HR’s 310 RBI’s

23rd :BAL: Select OF Mike Purdy
Terrible name we all know Mike is not Pretty. Beside the point, I think Purdy is an average OF with big power and eye, and being a lefty may even hit for contact. However, I see him nothing but a DH, and he reminds me a bit of Wrayford. I think if he becomes like Wrayford, than G$ will be quite happy with this pick.
Rating: B

Career Stats: .306 avg 1860 hits 239 HR’s 1080 RBI’s

24th :STL: Select SP Gaetan Carralero
I kind of like him, but once again he falls into the trap of many pitchers in this draft. Highest vital being movement, if it is the only one that greatly improves, he will not be that great. He has a great fastball already, and great HS and decent college numbers, so time will tell how he turns out. Much better pick than last years.
Rating: C+

Career Stats: 26-23 4.28 ERA 256 k’s 1.37 WHIP

25th :CIN: Select SS Jay Amery
I think this is a semi-horrible pick. Mainly because I hate SS without contact, and his splits are atrocious. He is also a righty. His saving grace is his eye and defense. So maybe if he reaches his peak he will end up being a worse version ofBallederes (who I thought was garbage but I was wrong), or even Gallegos (who I may also be wrong on, we will wait and see), or he could be total trash. Time will tell.
Rating: C-

Career Stats: .222 avg 1209 hits 317 HR’s 893 RBI’s

26th :ATL: Select Javy Olazabal
He is another one of those hitters that have the vitals that could be good, but such terrible splits. He hit fairly well in HS, but with his contact under his overall currently, he may only end up with mid 80’s contact, and that might put him in the high 70’s against righties, which to me is not that great, and may be a miss in the first round like a few of the other players drafted.
Rating: C-

Career Stats: .239 avg 369 hits 35 HR’s 188 RBI’s

27th :TEX: Select 3B Steve Palmer
I like Steve Palmer, he just has no eye, or defense. He may work out as a very good DH and with his splits minimal, he could have a very solid career with high 80s if he reaches it. If he ends up getting big jumps, and reaches the 90s even with a low eye (Musgrove) he could still be very good. Eye can sometimes be overrated. Still, his lack of defense makes him either only ever a 1B or DH which limits a lot of value, but in Texas, a slugger is always good.
Rating: B-

Career Stats: .290 avg 1465 hits 127 HR’s 643 RBI’s

28th :ATL: Select OF Eric Dalby
To me reminds me of Mike Purdy, but far better eye. I think Stang did a really good job getting this guy and really should have taken him over Olazabal. He may never do anything but LF/DH, but he looks to be a slugger, who can get on base without just hitting. Maybe he will be more like Wrayford than Purdy, only time will tell.
Rating: B+

Career Stats: .083 avg 2 hits

29th :ATL: Select SS Marc Wilson
And the trend does not continue, I cannot say I love this pick, but neither is it terrible. To me everything relies on whether Wilson can reach decent contact numbers, and for that to happen he needs to hit his peak or jump even higher. I do really like his speed, and maybe his defense can get even better which would help solidify the pick here. He could end up being a worse version of Justin McQuistan which is not all that bad.
Rating: C+

Career Stats: .261 avg 528 hits 4 HR’s 144 RBI’s 99 SB’s

30th :ARI: Select SP Jeff Noke
Vital wise, think he looks good, and pre-birthday he was 92 peak, so he did drop a lot in peak, but if he jumps it should be very interesting to see where he goes. The thing that scares me about him is his stats in HS, and so far I have yet to see a real good pitcher come out of the draft who had terrible HS numbers. (IF you see someone who has please let me know) I think Rhendricks took a chance on a guy who had a high peak previously, and with 30th pick why not, after all he is the defending WS Champions, and you cannot win a championship without risks.
Rating: C

Career Stats: 13-12 5.07 ERA 183 k’s 1.51 WHIP

[rockybull]

Good article man, I enjoy reading these.

I was pretty high on Combs as well, and if Thurber wasn't there when I picked, I likely would have taken Combs. I absolutely believe that there was more risk in me taking Thurber over Combs, but I also think Thurber has a shot to be better down the road than Combs. No question in my mind that Combs was the safer pick. I like to take risks sometimes, and we'll see if it pays off or not. I try to project when I draft players, and Thurber has a shot to have better vitals (other than power). Thurber and Combs are both 55 overall, but Thurber has better endurance, health, 30% better GB ratio, around 1 year and a half younger (which may or may not matter), 10 points better control, 2 points better movement, and only 4 points lower power. Combs does have 6 points better peak, which def can make a difference. I think Thurber can be special if he can can get some solid jumps (which you could say that about a lot of guys), which may or may not happen, I guess we'll find out. I liked both pitchers a good bit, I just like Thurber more.

[Steal Third]

I always look forward to the draft review by Hokey!

Ok, so once again (see Balledares), Hokey is not enamored with my selection. I have to admit that I really struggled with this pick. I did not see any hitter that I wanted. I wanted a lefty bat and the best one was a 1B, which is a spot I can't pick at #4....especially, since I already have too many power hitters with lower contact ratings...which Sandaval may end up with. After that, I think the best ones did not warrant that high of a pick in light of my needs. There are good hitters, but when in doubt I always default to a SP.

I don't see why Jennings is a bad pick. What is wrong with a high movement rating? He is not a young spec at 21 so his movement should be better developed. Gully was who I wanted, but he did not drop to me. I am also partial to guys who have a strong breaking pitch in their arsenal. Jennings is just turned 21. He has an 85 fastball, 67 curve, 64 circle change, and 62 slider. So he has the potential for 4 decent pitches - 2 of which are breaking balls. Compare to the 2 22 year olds you mentioned - Wigfall (1yr 4 months older): 91 fastball, 77 sinker, 60 change - 4 points less than Jennings #3 pitch - and no breaking ball and Lamdany (11 mos older): 84 fastball, 76 circle change, 65 slider (2 points behind Jenning's curve).

Baikalova's breaking pitch is his 4th best and only a 44 rated curve. I like Combs and considered him, but the 59 control rating concerned me.

I enjoy these conversations and, hopefully, I learn by hearing how other people see things. Thanks again Hokey!!!

[GoIrish]

Hokey, nice write up. I obviously disagree with you on Amery. He will not be a high contact guy but he has good power numbers and real good on base numbers with a gold glove caliber defense. He will also be a good compliment player to Sandaval in the lineup that hits from the left side of the plate. We already have our future top of the table setter in Romero. We wanted to get a couple of guys in this draft that fill the 3-4-5 role that will be able to knock in some runs.