2084 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

01. SP Thom Faux
Granted with not having a pick until the mid-2nd, I didn't put any amount of time into looking at the 90's peaks, but Faux looked like a no-brainer first overall selection. He projects better than possibly any other pitcher ran through my system. His control to movement starting point is in that territory where you wonder if HRs or OBA will be an issue, but he had no season over 1.00 HR/9, so that's not a concern. If Mogul is kind to his peak years, he's a future HOFer.

Grade:
Future Skills: 98 Con, 82 Pow, 95 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 1
Scouting File Score: 100.21

02. RF Josh Kifer
He's what Alberto Recendez would've looked like as a 16 year old prospect. To have an uber-young prospect look like what Kifer does is amazing. It's simple, he should tear the cover off the ball. He'll hit a lot of home runs and walk a lot all while sporting a nice batting average. Oh, and he can play defense too.

Grade:
Future Skills: 95 Con, 91 Pow, 92 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 2
Scouting File Score: 96.17

03. SP Homer Jones
Despite his name, home runs don't look to be an issue. He only showed one season above 1.00 HR/9 and he's just 17. He has a good starting build, a great GB%, and with 66 endurance he could see his vitals naturally increase once he adds endurance into the low 70's.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 71 Pow, 95 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 12
Scouting File Score: 90.00

04. 3B Gabe Tinker
On first glance, I was rather unimpressed with him due to his defense, but at 3B, he's more than capable. It's 2B that drags him down. He already jumped, but didn't see much movement in overall or peak, so he could have plenty of time to develop in what is already a safe bet to at least become MLB worthy. He could be an OPS monger with his power and eye combo. Now, if he's slated to play 2B, it would knock my grade down a notch.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 92 Pow, 94 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 9
Scouting File Score: 90.45

05. SP Rich Whitson
I would usually pan this pick, but being so young, he should turn out pretty solid. Though, even being 17, I think his HRs will be an issue. He'll rack up some strikeouts for sure and I think his control will get to a solid level, but I think, like some other STL pitchers of the past, his home runs will hold him back from being consistently good (I'm looking at you James Gabbard).

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 92 Pow, 92 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 4
Scouting File Score: 92.45

06. SP Adam Crofoot
I like his build better than Whitson, but he runs into similar problems. He gives unsure marks on his home runs. One season ('82) is very low and another ('83) is very high. Couple the uncertainty with three high OBA seasons and I think one will show through. He'll either always struggle with homers or struggle allowing a high OBA. He does have a solid repertoire and a build that is exciting. I think he'll probably fall into the same category as Whitson. Some seasons will be very good, but (with either high HRs or OBA) he'll struggle to find consistency and be mediocre in other seasons.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 84 Pow, 92 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 3
Scouting File Score: 92.82

07. SP Kevin Tucker
I'm surprised he wasn't the second pitcher taken. Like the others, Tucker is very young and has a nice starting build. He'll certainly have a very good Fastball and will add another pitcher (his Slider) that should be solid as well. He doesn't show the home run issues that the other impose and also has a good GB%. Plus being just a 61 endurance, he could see a little bump to his power and movement as he approaches the low 70's endurance mark. I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a dominant Ace (we'll see if the Pittsburgh curse continues though).

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 81 Pow, 97 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 7
Scouting File Score: 91.45

08. DH Henry Keown
I'm not sure if this is an auto-pick or an actual planned Hokey pick that could actually net Florida a true on-base + slugging threat. Keown should obviously hit for some power, but he'll shock the Florida fan base as he educates them on what drawing a walk is. He won't be someone you ever want in the field, but his hitting carries a lot of weight. I'm am interested in seeing if his power becomes disproportionate (the dreaded 15 2B to 30 HR). Not that homers are bad, but I'll take a more normal 30 2B/25 HR power over that 15/30 guy any day. Also, I'm simply curious to how he does on the base paths. His steal is ultra low, but his aggressiveness and decision making skills are quite solid.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 100 Pow, 94 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 8
Scouting File Score: 91.35

09. 3B/1B Paul Collopy
He'll put up some nice numbers, but I question if they'll be nice enough to deal with his middling defense at 3B. He'd be fine defensively at 1B, but then the offense needs to be even better. And that's pretty much that. He's a simple player to diagnose. He'll hit for some power and walk a good amount. I just question if it'll be enough to not make this feel like Arizona got late 1st value.

Grade:
Future Skills: 77 Con, 94 Pow, 90 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 14
Scouting File Score: 89.18

10. CF Dennis Badman
Some seem rather high on him, I'm just not so high on him. Judging by his Spring Training aging drop, he'll only have 3 or 4 years to develop. He should be a solid player, I just question if he'll be good enough to justify a top 10 pick. He'll hit for some power, walk a good bit, and steal some bases. Though I think his base running skills suggest a guy who'll also getting caught stealing a decent amount and his defense will be that of someone you'd rather at LF than patrolling CF.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 82 Pow, 83 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 20
Scouting File Score: 86.72

11. 1B Bryan Capezzera
There's a reason why he was left to be auto'd. He sucks at being a catcher and won't hit enough for an ideal 1B. He should turn in some good contact, but that'll be inflated with his already low K's. His power will just be middling. I see someone who may hit for a solid batting average, but only turn in ~20 homers. Hey, at least he's no Mullinax!

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 83 Pow, 86 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 41
Scouting File Score: 83.74

12. 3B/1B Chris Donnelly
He's basically a younger Paul Collopy. Even though the projections like Collopy more, I like Donnelly better. In three years I think Donnelly will look better at 20 than Collopy does (right now). With more perceived time to develop, I think Donnelly can exceed Collopy and be the type of bat that you're alright with sitting at 3B with so-so defense or may be able to slide to 1B.

Grade:
Future Skills: 75 Con, 95 Pow, 88 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 17
Scouting File Score: 88.20

13. SP Kelly Dixon
Other than the low-low home runs (and the high GB%), I don't see his big draw. There's just not enough other things going for him to have me thinking he can become anything more than just a serviceable starter. I basically see Todd Fritsch without the solid control.

Grade:
Future Skills: 77 Con, 63 Pow, 93 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 65
Scouting File Score: 81.77

14. C Martel Smith
I feel his value hinges on if there's really a shift in average catcher defense or not. As it stands, his arm will still be below average. The rest of his defense will be solid, but as a catcher you earn your keep by throwing runners out. Offensively, he looks rather bland right now, but in time he should progress into a solid hitter with good contact and decent power and eye.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 83 Pow, 78 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 19
Scouting File Score: 87.22

15. SP Kellyn Hamton
Like some of the others before him, I have concerns about his HR/9. However, we've already seen him age and he fell just two points. So, there's some founded hope that he develops out of those home runs issues (and he has one season of real low HR/9). He's got a nice repertoire to go along with what should be a rather balanced build in the end.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 84 Pow, 89 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 7
Scouting File Score: 92.04

16. RP Dave Wilner
I like him and he was probably on a lot of people's lists, but I don't think anyone else was eyeing him this early. He could make for a SP convert candidate, but nothing should be concrete until he's rated 60+ (too much kooky stuff can happen in the 50's overalls). In the least, he'll be an above average reliever, but this is just far too early for that kind of RP or what could be a pipe dream of him being a true SP convert candidate.

Grade:
Future Skills: 61 Con, 55 Pow, 51 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 25
Scouting File Score: 85.98

17. 2B Mike Walker
I feel like this could be a hugely wasted pick. I think Milwaukee's 2nd round pick (Jeff Dokken) is a better speed guy to go after. At least Dokken shows the knack for elite base running ability. Walker will get his steals, if he gets on base. I think it's a real question mark for if his contact vs RHP gets above 70. He only has 12 true upside and is that enough time for it to get into the 70's? He'll at least walk a good amount and have solid pop. But without contact, he's on the wrong side of a platoon.

Grade:
Future Skills: 68 Con, 81 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 144
Scouting File Score: 73.49

18. 1B/RF Wesley Daniel
I'm surprised Hokey didn't take him with how little he'll walk. The best thing about him is that he can play 1B or RF. After that, there's not much to like. He's the poster child for a guy that will hit below what you think he will due to how much his eye type inflates his contact (low BB, low K). Basically, he bobs for apples in the toilet, and he likes it.

Grade:
Future Skills: 92 Con, 83 Pow, 68 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 44
Scouting File Score: 83.57

19. SP Dane Meeligan
The build is pretty good and he hasn't shown any home run issues. The problem is that he already jumped, so his perceived potential is better than his actual potential. It'll all depend on how much drops when he ages. If he falls too much, then this would certainly ding his grade.

Grade:
Future Skills: 76 Con, 80 Pow, 81 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 59
Scouting File Score: 82.55

20. RF/LF Jamin Basurto
He reminds me of the build of Giuliano Nabarrete. And if Nabarrete peaked out in the upper 80's to low 90's, I think he'd have been a real nice player. I assume Basurto's "93 Peak" in the pre-season was really 94, so he only dropped 2 when he aged. If he follows that pattern (or even if he drops 3), he'll have plenty of time to develop and could be a very dangerous bat. Some will crab about his range, but I'm not so worried. He has a good arm and profiles just fine in RF.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con, 87 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 6
Scouting File Score: 91.58

22. 1B Rich Kean
Maybe you could hope for a lucky natural position change back to 3B to make him solid defensively, but I'm not keen on that being a good bet. Offensively he'll walk a lot, but we've seen high eye builds detract from player's development on contact and power. Even if it doesn't, he doesn't have the fanciest of projections for a 1B. But, he is a step above some of the other, "You move to 1B" prospects that have been drafted.

Grade:
Future Skills: 90 Con, 85 Pow, 96 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 10
Scouting File Score: 90.38

22. SP Justin Powell
He's one of the more intriguing arms in the draft. He has a very low GB%, but doesn't show the home run issues that Mogul tends to associate with low GB%. He also has some of the best power you'll find on high school arms. It'll all depend on how long he has to develop, but if he doesn't peak out until he's 25+, I think his potential is sky high.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 89 Pow, 86 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 13
Scouting File Score: 89.34

23. RF Joe Vogel
The projections have his contact taking off and while it might, he also shows the low K's and low walks Eye, so it'll be inflated. Without some power, speed, or some really fun defense I can't say I like him too much.

Grade:
Future Skills: 95 Con, 89 Pow, 86 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 18
Scouting File Score: 87.85

24. 2B Eli Casis
As some know, I'm not afraid to attempt a natural position change (and it's what Casis needs), however I'm not as open on them as I used to be. It's because, 1) You have to wait 2 years, 2) You're forced to play a poor defender at a key defensive position, 3) A positive position change is not guaranteed. For those things, I would reserve the natural position change for a player that looks like they can be a very special talent (i.e. superb steal threats) if they have passable defense. Casis looks like he can be good, but not like the type that will be a 60-70 steal threat He also starts out with much lower range than players that have had success with the change in the past. He'll probably be solid, but nothing to really covet.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 75 Pow, 80 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 50
Scouting File Score: 83.20

25. 1B Jared Brodie
At least he's a lefty. That's about the most I can say about him. He has a low walk, low K eye, so I fear his solid projected contact won't mean as much. He also doesn't look to have more than just decent power. So, again at least he's a lefty.

Grade:
Future Skills: 90 Con, 82 Pow, 78 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 27
Scouting File Score: 85.63

26. C James Cofield
He looks like Pat Krigsfeld, a slightly above league average bat (which is solid for a catcher), but absolutely terrible defensively. For whatever he could add offensively, he'll hurt his overall value with his pathetic defense. Even if stashed at 1B, I don't think his bat is going to be enough to comfortably start him.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 77 Pow, 78 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 84
Scouting File Score: 80.36

27. RP Guy Marriott
I don't see a lot to like about him. Sure he'll have some very good movement. And maybe he beats his projection for control, but I still doubt he's anything overly special. Without better control, I don't see him being better than a 3rd or 4th RP.

Grade:
Future Skills: 68 Con, 57 Pow, 100 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 139
Scouting File Score: 74.26

28. SP Baron Soltanovich
I think he's got an excellent build considering he doesn't have even one year that gets close to 1.00 HR/9. Usually Mogul associates low GB% with a pitcher who'll have home run issues, but in Soltanovich's case, it looks purely based on him being a power pitcher. He looks like he'll have an amazingly balanced build. If the low HRs stay true, he'll be very good.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 84 Pow, 81 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 26
Scouting File Score: 85.82

29. CF Dan Brinker
He has a pretty good build for a guy who'd make a fine centerfielder. Good contact, good speed, will draw a lot of walks, and plays good defense. However, with shaky health, it diminishes his value.

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 73 Pow, 94 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 11
Scouting File Score: 90.06

30. 1B Dustin Welch
He's a little okay-ish, because he looks like he'll actually have some good power. He'll have some solid contact as well, but it'll be the inflated kind. At first base, he just seems like the kind of bat you settle for, rather than what you strive for.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 92 Pow, 78 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 39
Scouting File Score: 84.19

31. DH Rob Meltzer
He'll never be good enough to be relied on in the field, but he should have a fine bat. Good power, a good amount of walks, and enough contact to get the job done.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 90 Pow, 85 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 23
Scouting File Score: 86.20

32. SP John Jacobs
He has the type of build that reminds me of Dana Balota. Compared to his overall, it's nothing amazing, but with a great GB% and a fantastically low home runs it's the type of build that can blossom into something great.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 65 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 63
Scouting File Score: 81.96

33. 2B/3B Justin Verbeck
He's already jumped and he's already aged. He dropped 5 points and that clouds things. With 7 true upside remaining, it's tough to know if he'll peak out next April or have 2085 to develop as well. He'd obviously look better with another year to develop. Even if he doesn't, being left-handed helps him. Hitting his career window, he'd be 72 contact, 80 power, and 78 eye. Not great, but in FCM he may be good enough to play. However, without a better outlook, it's tough to validate using a Type A pick.

Grade:
Future Skills: 73 Con, 80 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 38
Scouting File Score: 84.29

[mattynokes]

And that's it.