Peak Start

***AndyP*** · 11-15-2010, 10:38 PM

It's hard to do sims with our file as is...but in running some other sims I think the +10% on our peak start is throwing off some prospect development.

I'd like to see us go to 0 or -10%, preferably 0. I'm really annoyed by all the 22 year olds peaking and this adjustment seems to fix that.

Any thoughts?

***jps93*** · 11-15-2010, 10:44 PM

I think it sounds good because I have noticed that the younger players do peak earlier in some instances.

dejota · 11-15-2010, 11:02 PM

"Average Peak Start
By default, the average 'Peak Start' value for players available in the Amateur Draft is about 25 years of age. This setting can be used to lower the average 'Peak Start' to 21, or raise it to 29.
"

-MLB Help file

I read that as raise the value to result in a higher average peak start and why we have 10% and IIRC the sports mogul forums back this up. Just making sure we're all looking at this the same way before we consider adjusting it.

***AndyP*** · 11-15-2010, 11:14 PM

I ran some simulations and thought I saw a pattern, though it can be hard to tell sometimes. Running some more showed what you're saying too.

If it truly is the +10% that delays peaking, then maybe we should up it further to 20 or 30?

GoIrish · 11-16-2010, 12:23 PM

(11-15-2010, 11:02 PM)dejota Wrote: "Average Peak Start
By default, the average 'Peak Start' value for players available in the Amateur Draft is about 25 years of age. This setting can be used to lower the average 'Peak Start' to 21, or raise it to 29.
"

-MLB Help file

I read that as raise the value to result in a higher average peak start and why we have 10% and IIRC the sports mogul forums back this up. Just making sure we're all looking at this the same way before we consider adjusting it.

An easy way to tell which way the setting goes is to create a new file. Pick out a handfull of 22 and 23 year old prospects and put the setting to +100. See what their status is after the sim for a season, then run another sim with the same file and change the setting to -100 and look at the same handfull of prospects.

***AndyP*** · 11-16-2010, 01:31 PM

I think DJ's understanding was right, the question is - do we want to tweak our settings? I think a bump to 20% would be a smart move.

dejota · (This post was last modified: 11-16-2010, 04:21 PM by dejota.)

What impact would this truly have?

Wouldn't pushing peak start back without adjusting talent levels result in a more docile development environment? Instead of guys like Dyce going from 87/90 to 93/94 from ages 24 through 25 would there be a step inbetween and he wouldn't peak until 26? (for example)

I mean the math guys say the numbers indicate the average peak start of players as 27 years old. At only 10% we've not even bumped that to 26 yet. However if we do this I believe players will develop a lot more slowly and a lot more predictably, but that's just a prediction. I don't actually know. I'm anxious to hear other people's thoughts on this stuff though.

***AndyP*** · 11-16-2010, 04:49 PM

I am too, I'm hoping more people chime in. It's not the Dyce's of the world that this post is concerned about, it's the dozens upon dozens of guys that peaked at 22 that I'm concerned about. It's one thing if the guy just never develops - busts happen. My problem is when a guy is well on his way to developing and then suddenly, randomnly hits his potential long, long before it should.

I don't know how it would mess with our talent levels, it's hard to simulate our current status and test these things out, but I do know that adjusting that slider higher means that A) less 21 year olds go from 68/94 to 94/94 overnight b) Career paths are more normalized so you're not paying the first year of FA for a guy who is 23 and c) that you can better develop players because their development paths are more normalized. Right now we have 19 year olds coming out of the draft that spend a month in rookie ball, jump to AAA, and are ready for the bigs within a year of drafting. Does that happen? Sure, but not nearly as frequently in real life as our file does it.

I wouldn't want to change anything if it throws talent levels out of whack....but if it doesn't, it would be nice for player development to be more natural and progressive.

mike · 11-16-2010, 05:04 PM

I don't have much expertise in this area. What does changing this number really do? Does it make the draftees every year have a higher age that they peak at? Does it effect everyone? Or what

***AndyP*** · 11-16-2010, 05:11 PM

It adjusts the start of their peak year. For each player in mogul they have a programmed setting for what their career path will look like. Usually a date that they will be major league ready and then another date in which they retire. In between will be a time when they start their peak, which is when they will be at their best rating for a given amount of time. Basically, the start of this peak means the end of any further potential to get better. (In theory)

What I believe we're seeing right now is that the peak start time, which should happen somewhere between the age of 24 and 28, is happening closer to the age of 21 or 22. which is way off from what it typically is, even in simulation mode.