2098 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

Since I have no picks in this draft, let's give this a try once more...

01. SS Ben Kuehl
There's already been plenty of talk about this pick. Let's face it, he's fast, will get steals, and can handle SS in FCM. It's already been questioned if he was an area of need, but that's dumb. MLB draftees are not (usually) ready right away and you can never have enough desired builds. Once he's developed, even if he "isn't needed", he'll be a very strong trade chip. The thing to question about him is his health and his few (and poor fielding %) amateur stats at 2B will mean he's truly limited to playing SS. If he's played at 2B, it drops his grade a star.

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02. SP Mark Dittmer
He looks to be Jason Ogg 2.0. So, he'll be solid, but likely snake bitten by large amounts of homers. And sure, I get it that some of Ogg's home run issues are because of his home park. Some. He still plays a lot of other games elsewhere and even if he were in a low home run park, his home runs allowed won't magically evaporate.

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03. SP Lee Loughlin
He has that good build of Power>Control>Movement with a nice GB%. He also has nice (but not too high) endurance and health. You could certainly question if his first two years home runs will sneak up on him, but given his age and where his movement currently sits, I think he'll be fine.

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04. 2B/3B Brian Morant
He should end up with a solid bat and be quality defensively at either position. I'm hesitant to think that he'll be a big time offensive threat, but with our state of infield production, getting .775-.800 OPS production is pretty nice.

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05. SP Adam Grindley
He has a very interesting profile. He's a finesse arm with all low OBA numbers and a tad high home runs. Generally these builds have fairly high OBA numbers. These numbers are what you generally see out of the more polished power arms. The home runs are a bit of a concern, With him being more developed, it may be an issue that creeps up. And finally there's the health. If you're consistently missing a month every season, it naturally takes away from your value. Still, the control, GB%, and low OBA numbers make him quite compelling.

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06. SP Arturo Soto
At best he has 11 upside and that's before he ages. He's a safe pick to be useful, but I don't see him becoming a true building block.

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07. CF Tomas Sopena
He has speed and range, and that's really great. However, he has very drastic splits and an eye that will produce low walks and low strikeouts. With relatively limited upside, I really question if his contact can develop to the point where his low K's won't hinder him and then of course the drastic splits will only exasperate the problem.

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08. 1B Leo MacMurchy
OWM and the Defensive Dude Strikes Back. I'm not much of a fan of MacMurchy. He'll walk a good amount, but I think his power will be rather pedestrian and his contact/eye is not of the good variety with pretty low K's. Basically, look at him as if he had high 60s contact and high 70s eye, then how much do you like him? I think that's where his performance has him playing.

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09. SP Curt Anderson
17 home runs in 83 innings? Yeah, he sucks. Although, the build isn't bad. He'll end up with great power and the movement is at a good spot in relation to his control and power. I think he'll end up like Jason McVean. A solid 3.75-4.00 ERA arm, but the high home runs keep him from being truly dominant.

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10. SP Alex Valdez
Super cool control+movement combo to go along with a nice GB%. All besides one year showed very low home runs. I would be surprised if he's dominant, but I'd also be surprised if he weren't a very reliable arm.

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11. RF Luke Vinyard
At least he doesn't have low K's. He'll walk a lot and I actually don't think that he'll be complete ass in the field. I fear his contact and power will fall short of middle of the order quality. It also wouldn't surprise me one bit if he's another Joseph Orth.

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12. C Jose Pineda
Low K's, low walks, and a subpar arm. Color me not impressed. It's great that he's a switch hitter, but so was Michael Martinez.

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13. RP Eric Killick
He should be good, but I'm guessing he was taken with the thoughts of being a top Closer like a prime Reggie Tugby and Ramon Arujo were. The problem is Killick's power is too low to start out. He's probably young enough to see it develop into the 60s, but it'd take some impressive development to see if get into the 70s.

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14. 1B Alex Sanchez
I see him a lot like MacMurchy - low K's will hold his productivity back. Though with Sanchez being younger, he should see both his contact and power develop better than MacMurchy.

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15. RP Brian Mullock
This is a RP to circle the wagons around. He already (and pre-window to boot) has quality MLB power. As long as his control gets to solid levels (75+), he'll be a very good Closer.

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16. 2B Fred Cantrill
I like this guy a lot and then I'm highly concerned about him at the same time. We know the speed, range, and power will play. It all comes down to contact. He's a 3-drop vs RHP and that's a concern when your base contact starts at 58 on a power/eye build. If his base contact gets to ~75, he'll be very good. If he falls short, I fear he's only a bench guy. The margin for error is very thin.

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17. 1B Matthew Delaney
We know he'll hit home runs and walk a good amount. Like with Cantrill, it comes down to contact developing enough. Delaney is an even more power-laden build and it sincerely begs to wonder if he can develop to ~75 contact.

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18. SP Jerry Pendle
Yes. Lots of yes! Despite not having good power, this is a guy who could wind up a top of the rotation stalwart. His control should be good and his power will be decent. He has the right build to see movement take over late in his development. That mixed with a good GB% and he'll be a very reliable pitcher.

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19. SP Adam Marreon
He has a peculiar profile. He's a power build with a low GB%, yet no years with high home runs. If you're looking for a comparison, it's Jason McVean on Seattle, but with low home runs.

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20. SP Tim Weidemeyer
He should be a pretty good. A nice control+movement combo with a great GB rate. What I question is if his health will limit his effectiveness and if his limited upside means he won't develop long and he could be seen like a 21 year old who peaks out at 25. However, if he has at least until 24 to develop, then he'll be phenomenal.

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21. SP Vladimir Hernandez
It's interesting that a pick after Weidemeyer has the similar control+movement build, is older, but we've already seen a (low) aging drop. I think he can end up just as good and effective as Weidemeyer.

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22. 1B Tim Fitch
I can't say I'm surprised that he fell this far, but I think he should have gone much higher. He reminds me a lot of Heath Fitzgerald with the power and ability to draw walks. Now, Fitzgerald certainly developed to amazing perfection, but even if he fell a little short from what he is, he'd still be a very nice bat. I don't think Fitch will have a problem hitting .260+ with 30+ homers and adding a good amount of walks as well.

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23. RF/CF Aaron MacBeath
Despite the low Ks, his contact should reach the point where it won't matter. It's a shame that he probably won't steal much, but then again he'd have gone a lot higher if he did. Even with poor power, his high school stats suggest that he could be a doubles machine. Pair that with his solid speed and baserunning skills and it'll make up for some of the missed stolen bases.

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24. 1B Eduardo Guddado
Let's see, what's working against him; he already jumped, he shows low Ks, and he's more of a contact build than power build. His drastic splits do help him maintain some value. But overall, I see him as a guy that you're always looking to upgrade.

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25. RF Joe Hebert
He's a solid all-around player. Unfortunately, I also don't think that's a glowing thing to say. Being a lefty and only having 4-drop spilts vs LHP will help him stay in the lineup everyday. The big thing that hurts him is that we've already seen his aging drop and it doesn't look promising for him to develop very long.

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26. SP Jeff Marbini
I don't really know what to take of him. He has a somewhat intriguing build, but his GB% is anything but ideal. I feel like these are the builds that Mogul could do about anything with. I'm not too worried about his higher endurance and health, but it could zap his development a little. The projections also suggest could also turn out along the lines of Jason Wells.

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27. SP Henry Kettler
This is a great build and very encouraging to see him drop only 2 points when he aged. He has a nice balance of endurance and health to go along with a good GB%. Clearly the hope is that he beats his draft day peak. Even if he doesn't, he'll still be a rotation worthy arm.

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28. SP Jahquil Harris
While he doesn't show anything highly concerning for HRs or OBA, he's still the control build that I'd be concerned with. He advanced, so I think his stats are a project of him being better than the average amateur talent rather than proving how good he can be. In the end I don't think there will be enough development time for his movement to close the gap on his control and that will limit his effectiveness.

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29. SP Nat Harris
He looks like the all-around balanced pitcher. His build projects to be rather balanced. Considering his advanced vitals, I don't see anything in his stats that overly impresses or concerns me. I think that's what his future will hold. He'll be a nothing flashy, but consistent bottom of the rotation arm.

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30 2B Bud Lang
He's already jumped and aged. When you factor in his window boost, he has 3 upside. I don't see him developing past his next birthday. He's not totally useless. He does have good defense, but his bat doesn't profile as a starter. He's a good bench option of a competing team or a filler starter a rebuilding team.

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31. 3B Matt Healy
While not ideal, he's solid enough defensively at 3B. Offensively, he should fit into the norm at 3B. He should end up with solid contact and power to go with an eye that'll draw a few walks. However, the lack of a true position is clearly why he fell this far.

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32. SP Eric Halls
He's interesting. Let's say that. He's aged and already had his jump. He fell from 93 to 92 peak, which suggests that he actually should have a decent amount of time to develop. With a potential 3-4 years to develop, this could be a quite solid pitcher. He likely won't be a top of the rotation arm, but he could easily end up solid mid-rotation arm and at least end up as a 5th starter.

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33. SP Kevin Dorton
I'm a little concerned with his home runs, given his advanced movement. However, he projects to have exceptional movement and if his control can get into the 80s, he could end up a solid enough starter.

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34. 1B/DH Charles Miller
He's 16, so that helps him a lot. Otherwise, he has a pretty uninspiring build. I don't think his power gets to where he'll need it in order to settle in as a good 1B or DH. Even being extremely young, I'm not confident in him being more than a platoon guy.

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35. SP Hendrick Basham
He's got some concerning home runs, but doesn't have a low GB% and is just 17 with 52 movement. I like his power being above his control. These builds are mightily intriguing and could make for a pitcher who can do a little bit of everything in the future.

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