2086 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

01. LF/RF Basil Kairns

I think many dislike him because he just fails the current eye test. However, even just factoring in his career window jump and he looks much more pleasing with; 80 speed, 70 arm, 80 range, and 72 fielding. His bat projects pretty well, too. It’s clear that he’ll have some nice power and his contact won’t be too bad either. His eye will be solid and he profiles to walk a good amount, but nothing too amazing.

 

Lastly, I do feel he’s best fit for LF, but I wouldn’t rule out RF. As Andy and others have pointed out where there are realistic baseball things to throw out the window with Mogul, I feel needing a good arm in RF is one of those things. Would I prefer a good arm in RF? Sure, who wouldn’t. But, I wouldn’t stress too much about that as I don’t think that having a strong arm in RF is a difference maker in the Mogul world.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 89 Con, 96 Pow, 81 Eye

Scouting File Rank: 3

Scouting File Score: 91.49

 

02. SP Brian Winright

He’s easily the best pitching prospect in the draft. He’ll have a nice blend of control, power, and movement. He only saw one year with high home runs (and that was only by a hair). In addition to looking like a pleasing and projectable build, his GB% and repertoire are appealing as well. The only drawback is being a lefty, but I’m not one to get worked up over handedness. Good pitchers will do well and the best way to combat the best lefty bats (that many seem to target) is by having a good lefty SP.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 88 Con, 79 Pow, 93 Mov

Scouting File Rank: 2

Scouting File Score: 92.04

 

03. DH/1B Matt Towe

When I was making an effort to trade up, I was hoping to get both Towe and Winright. Towe’s OPS potential is through the rough. Where his vitals are in relation to his overall are amazing. I do think the scouting file is a little too high on him, but I see him developing in that general build of enviable power and eye (walking ability).  His defense is certainly not great, but being so young his glove could develop better than usual. Even if not, his bat will make him more than tolerable at DH if you can’t slot him at 1B.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 79 Con, 100 Pow, 98 Eye

Scouting File Rank: 1

Scouting File Score: 95.08

 

04. LF Brent Brain

He’s interesting being so young and a lefty bat. However, I think his lack of speed keeps him out of CF and (like the projections have it) his contact eventually overshadows his power to the point where he ends up with just solid pop instead of legitimate middle of the order bat. Again, without speed (or walks) I don’t see him as a top half of the lineup bat.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 93 Con, 85 Pow, 74 Eye

Scouting File Rank: 14

Scouting File Score: 87.86

 

05. LF/1B Pat Swanston

When I did my initial quick scout early in the season, he wasn’t even one of my targets. But seeing his drop from 93 to just 92 caught my eye and looking deeper into him, he’s quite the unique build. It’s rare for FCM to see a lefty power bat that plays on the corners and has some speed. He’ll never be good enough at his “natural” position of 3B, but he’ll be league average in LF and with defensive edits, he’ll also have 1B added as well.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 90 Con, 94 Pow, 73 Eye

Scouting File Rank: 4

Scouting File Score: 91.49

 

06. CF Nomar Fernandez

He only has 8 upside, so time to develop with be a concern until we see how much his peak drops when he ages. On the surface, he’s a great looking CF prospect. He has speed to burn and is just fantastic on the bases. Defensive abilities certainly aren’t a question for him. At the plate, he basically averages 5 homers person, so he could put up quiet power numbers with a low power rating. I do question how good he’ll hit for average, but even if his contact doesn’t impress, he should walk a good amount. With his speed, he just need to get on first any way possible.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 93 Con, 65 Pow, 88 Eye

Scouting File Rank: 5

Scouting File Score: 90.57

 

07. SP Scott Nixon

While he doesn’t have an eye-popping opening build, his control is his best attribute, power is above movement, and all three are above his overall. The big thing I like is that beyond his freshman year, his HR/9 on that other years are all quite low and that pairs well with his 55% GB rate. Lastly, both his endurance and health are in the good, but not too good range.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 81 Con, 74 Pow, 93 Mov

Scouting File Rank: 11

Scouting File Score: 88.29

 

08. DH/1B Manuel Brondo

I’ll admit, I was campaigning for Brondo to be taken. I think people in mzy’s position get themselves to believe they shouldn’t take another DH/1B after having taken Towe just a few slots earlier for bad reasons. If either Towe fails to develop, you have Brondo. If both develop then you have two very nice options for 1B and DH or 1B/DH and trade bait (I know, everyone and everything – including the staplers are always available in Seattle).

 

As for Brondo, he projects to some insane power (like Towe), but probably won’t be as good as Towe in the contact and eye department. Though, Brondo will be equally as underwhelming in the field. For the OPS potential, he’s quite the player to like.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 73 Con, 100 Pow, 84 Eye

Scouting File Rank: 4

Scouting File Score: 91.49

 

09. 3B/1B Gabriel Carbia

As a 3B, I like him. As a 1B, I think he’s someone who should be passed on until later in the first round, maybe not until the second round. So his grade all hinges on where Carbia is played. His starting build gives you the impressive that he’s a power bat, but I think eventually his contact overtakes his power and he’s more of the solid but not great 1B bat. Since his defense at 3B isn’t bad, he could be poised to start at the hot corner in the majors where he’ll be adequate in the field and a much better bat than is the norm at 3B for FCM.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 90 Con, 88 Pow, 82 Eye

Scouting File Rank: 13

Scouting File Score: 87.92

 

10. SS Tom Metz

Even though I’m all for attempting the natural position change (and Metz will need one to be tolerable defensively), I do not like taking those types in the first round when them being a success or failure of a pick hinges on just that. We’ve seen the build fail with Joey Davis and become a success with Jamie Avery. An interesting thing that I noticed on Davis and Avery is that even with mega elite speed and highly favorable baserunning skills, they’re basically ~35 SB threats. Not a 60+ SB guy like you get from other elite SB players in the league.

 

Grade:

Future Skills: 78 Con, 74 Pow, 76 Eye

Scouting File Rank: 22

Scouting File Score: 86.36

11. RP Josh Bunton
I mean he’s 16. But, I think that’s where the appeal ends. His movement is a good deal above his control and his power looks awfully weak (even for a RP). I can see his control beating out his projection a little bit and his movement not being as gaudy since the formula has issues with players who are on extremes of the development spectrum. However, I don’t see his control developing enough to become a SP and I don’t see him becoming good enough to be a reliable closer and justifiable this early in the draft.

Grade:
Future Skills: 72 Con, 63 Pow, 100 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 78
Scouting File Score: 81.48

12. SP Brendan Spry
He’s alright, but I’m worried how far his movement will end up compared to his control and while he hasn’t shown a ton of worry on the home run front, he has shown high OBAs every year. He’s also 21 and already jumped with just 18 upside remaining (before whatever his aging drop will be). He’ll undoubtedly have good control, but I strongly question if he’ll always be tagged for a lot of hits (regardless of defense) and may allow a few too many HRs in the process as well.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 69 Pow, 82 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 78
Scouting File Score: 82.00

13. SP Raphael Manrillas
This is another case of it not being good when movement is your best attribute on draft day. He at least has some hope of becoming rotation worthy with top end movement and control that could be considered “good enough”. He doesn’t pose any real concern in the home run department either. So, I think he could become rotation worthy, but more of a bottom of the rotation arm than a guy you can consistently rely on.

Grade:
Future Skills: 76 Con, 72 Pow, 97 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 45
Scouting File Score: 83.99

14. RF/LF Zane Callahan
He's not bad, but I think what looks to be a good starting build on first glance a switch hitter makes him more appealing than he really is. We know he dropped 4 points when he aged, so he has 17 upside and probably 4 years left to develop. His contact will overtake his power and he'll be more of an average bat than something special. Defensively, he'll have a strong arm, but will lack range or the speed to make up for it.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 84 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 29
Scouting File Score: 85.54

15. SP Salvador Vilela
I think this is a pick that you can justify more in a cloudy draft, but overall I think he's more of a tease than a true talent. He'll end up with very good control and quality power, but his movement lagging a good deal behind his control could pose problems - as made evident with higher home runs a few years. He will be a very interesting pitcher to watch develop and see how he performs in the majors for sure.

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 85 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 10
Scouting File Score: 88.42

16. SP Angel Arrendondo
Let's travel back to 2054... Arrendondo reminds me of when Sean took SP Manuel Poblano for the Indians before "bailing" and myself taking over. Poblano looked appealing, but his stats suggested he'd be snake bit by home runs (haha if you figure out who he played for) and it became true.

I think Arrendondo will be in the same boat. He'll have very good control, but it won't matter with all the whiplash he'll endure. He does have some nice pitches and nice strikeout ability to boot. However, the home runs issues might render him to effectively become FCM's Josh Tomlin.

Grade:
Future Skills: 92 Con, 84 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 7
Scouting File Score: 89.77

17. RP/SP Rod Denoon
He's a tough cookie to figure out. On one hand, he has a pretty solid build and shows no home run issues. On the other hand, you have to question whether the Mogul Gods are not pleased with his advanced skills and are hinting that even close to high homers means he'll have issues. The low GB% could be a clue, but it could also be Mogul trying to get cute with his 97 MPH, 85 rated Fastball as well.

Then there's the fact that after his window boost is factored, he only has 7 upside. Time is probably not on his side to develop. What's good is that even if he never jumps again and only has his window jump, he'll be major league quality. Maybe that's not all cherries and sundaes (being a mid-1st rounder), but that's a better absolute floor than the majority see. Oh, and he could be a convert candidate down the road.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 67 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 33
Scouting File Score: 85.29

18. SP Pete Witheycombe
It's jmaine, so naturally he reached and made a poor pick...

He has an interesting profile. He's a power build with a not so low GB% with low homers (and 3 of the 4 years are very low). His movement being above his control isn't ideal, but he should rack up some K's and keep the ball in the park, so he can probably get away with mediocre control. He has the profile that makes me believe he'll develop better than his projected vitals and is a very good value pick.

Grade:
Future Skills: 78 Con, 84 Pow, 89 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 16
Scouting File Score: 87.63

19. 2B Carlos Agamez
I go back and forth if I think he's alright vs not liking him. He has some noticeable talent with his power, ability to draw walks, range, and speed. Overall defensively, I'm not sure he's ideal with a lesser arm and fielding than the norm. However, the back and forth game creeps up with his high quality range and plus speed. The real concern is his contact. He's already jumped this year and only has 7 upside. Being that he'll age before he jumps again, it'll be even less upside and could only be in line for 1 or 2 more years to develop. Will that be enough to get his contact good enough vs RHP? He's a borderline grade for me, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Grade:
Future Skills: 71 Con, 88 Pow, 86 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 83
Scouting File Score: 81.12

20. SP Tom Bakker
He has mixed reviews on his home runs, which is a concern for being as advanced as he is. He has limited upside and his opening build doesn't scream someone to covet. He should useful, but I think his potential is just that of an upper tier bottom of the rotation starter. I think there were still pitcher with a higher ceiling to get at this point.

Grade: Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 78 Pow, 89 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 19
Scouting File Score: 86.49

21. SP Barry Elliott
He's a peculiar pitcher. He has a couple seasons with slightly high home runs, but nothing crazy and has a nice GB%. He's young, but more advanced than most 19 year old and doesn't have great upside. He does have a decent starting build with control as his best skill and above his overall. His 14 upside is concerning for how much time he'll have to develop. If Mogul is kind, this could end up a very good pick.

Grade:
Future Skills: 80 Con, 74 Pow, 83 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 43
Scouting File Score: 83.99

22. RF/LF Samuel Miller
I think Miller looks a lot like Dave Harris. Which might not be a great with Harris' numbers to date, but peaked out he has the vitals to put up some numbers. Being a lefty bat helps Miller, who should have some nice power potential and already plays fantastic defense. He'll be top notch on the corners and could play CF in a pinch (but not to be relied on with his speed). For as poor as the draft was claimed to be, I'm surprised he was on the board this late.

Grade:
Future Skills: 85 Con, 86 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 6
Scouting File Score: 89.90

23. RF Ian Dyer
Immediately I think he could be Recendez-lite. He has some good projections and is a lefty bat. The power is obvious and he'll walk a solid amount with higher K's, so his contact might play up a bit. Defensively, he has a great arm and will end up with quality range. The health is a concern, but he might be a platoon candidate or if he develops well enough vs LHP, he can be DH'd (like I did with Recendez) to help protect him from injuries.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 88 Pow, 80 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 9
Scouting File Score: 88.70

24. SS Joe Wright
He profiles decently with the bat in his hands and will have some speed for steals, but his defense is just so-so. A natural position change could certainly be in order to turn him into a capable fielder, but Stang hasn't shown to do that nor am I high on that being relied on for future value so early in the draft. He's close to an average pick grade, but I think falls just short with defense hanging in the balance.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 75 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 26
Scouting File Score: 86.05

25. SP Shinjo Kitao
He has really good control, a very good GB%, and doesn't show any home run issues. But he's Asian.

Grade:
Future Skills: Con 90, 72 Pow, 82 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 19
Scouting File Score: 83.17

26. 3B Nate Gentry
I guess with the current situation at 3B, this isn't a bad pick. He'll be great defensively, but I question his offensive output. Though I think he'll be pretty lackluster at the plate, he did show solid HR numbers, so it'll be interesting to see if there's some hidden power in his game.

Grade:
Future Skills: Con 87, Pow 79, Eye 74
Scouting File Rank: 21
Scouting File Score: 86.38

27. RP Justin Skylark
His control compared to his other vitals and overall isn't bad. However, 54 control is not what you want to see from a pitcher, no matter how young they are. He should have tons of time to grow and different development paths can happen to 16 year olds as well as relievers, so the projections could be way off. Overall, in the late 1st round, I don't think he's a terrible guy to roll the dice on. If his control develops, he could be a SP convert candidate.

Grade:
Future Skills: Con 69, Pow 66, Mov 92
Scouting File Rank: 129
Scouting File Score: 74.63

28. RP Tom Wideman
He is pretty young, but I don't think his control has a chance to develop like Skylark's could since Wideman's power is a good deal above his control and he'll likely blossom into a power arm. He has some home run concerns and at the rates that he's shown, I'd be a little concerned (even with his age).

Grade:
Future Skills: Con 70, Pow 81, Mov 90
Scouting File Rank: 117
Scouting File Score: 76.92

29. SP Nat Wescott
When was the last time the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes on the gridiron? That'll probably be the same year that the name "Nat" was appropriate. Anyway, despite having the dreaded "movement above everything else" build, he has some appeal. His home runs have been pretty low and he has a nice repertoire to go with a good enough GB%. All that with what should be great movement and I can dig the pick.

Grade:
Future Skills: Con 81, Pow 75, Mov 93
Scouting File Rank: 15
Scouting File Score: 87.78

30. RP Rob Wright
Not a fan. His control is bleh and, even if slightly, his movement is above his control. He's a pure upside grab and I'm just not confident in him becoming much more than a long man or middle man. I don't see him being rotation worthy.

Grade:
Future Skills: Con 67, Pow 70, Mov 91
Scouting File Rank: 161
Scouting File Score: 69.82

31. 3B Nelson Catchpole
Being that he dropped 4 points when he aged and already has limited (14) upside concerns me. I think it's very possible that he only has 3 years to develop and 4 years at best. Despite what the scouting file suggests, I have my doubts on whether that'll be enough time to get his contact to 70+ vs RHP and that'll he'll just be a platoon vs LHP option.

Grade:
Future Skills: 75 Con, 76 Pow, 82 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 53
Scouting File Score: 83.27

32. CF Billy Hanes
He's not the worst gamble to take, but I just don't see him panning out. He's certainly got the power and defense to create some intrigue, but I think his contact has too far to go to make him useful vs RHP. He'll certainly be useful vs LHP, but you hope for better for a pick this high. We'll see though, if his contact can get to 70+ vs RHP, he could be a pretty solid CF.

Grade:
Future Skills: 68 Con, 95 Pow, 86 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 113
Scouting File Score: 77.46

33. 2B Angus Evans
There's just something about him that I like. He looks to be a low K / low BB guy, which is usually don't like. Plus his defense looks like it'll just suffice enough, rather than being the type of defense that's sought from middle infielders. His contact should be solid, he'll have some power, and he'll steal a few bases. In the end, I don't see him being the prototypical 2B, but quietly can be a solid performer (especially with the pop) for the league.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 75 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 23
Scouting File Score: 86.33

34. LF Yasumori Hamada
By way of how his build projects, I want to like him a bit. But by how his opening build looks (and being Asian) makes me want to heed caution. He'll rarely walk and his build just looks like one of those where his power might not develop as anticipated. Being a lefty bat does help his cause and keeps some hope for him. Defensively, he certainly won't be good enough for CF, but he'll have fine enough range to make up for his lack of speed in LF.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 83 Pow, 72 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 37
Scouting File Score: 84.70

[mattynokes]