2068 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

After a year off, we're back for 2068! Maybe at some point I'll double back and get some ratings for 2067, but for now, we'll jump in to 2068.

This draft looks like one of the weakest ever. A lot of builds are poor and the presumed potential is rather low for FCM standards. There does seem to be a bit of youth in the draft class and Mogul will be Mogul, so this just might be one where you look back and wonder how a player got so good from draft day. It's possible.

01. :min2: DH/RF Tom Rabbit
Not much a fan of this pick. I'd say he only reasonably plays the field in a pinch and his bat doesn't profile great. He should have good, but not great both contact and power. However, his eye is rather poor (it doesn't appear he'll walk much) and I don't see his contact and power making up for the lack of walks. He simply looks like an ordinary hitter that can't play the field.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 88 Pow, 73 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 39
Scouting File Score: 81.96

02. :phi2: 1B/3B Ray Weber
I think he's the best overall bat in the draft and am surprised that he wasn't taken #1 overall. I could see some hesitation since he's already 22 and how every jump is critical at that age. However, he's already jumped, so you get the peace of mind in knowing that it won't be a wasted year. Get a positive Winterball and he could be an elite hitter. He also quietly has decent vitals at 3B. If they hold up on the field, it only makes him even more valuable.

Grade:
Future Skills: 76 Con, 99 Pow, 78 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 28
Scouting File Score: 83.27

03. :pit2: SP Mike Hunter
He has a great build and his vitals are all above his overall, as well as having two pitches that are solidly above his overall. In a draft that's questionable on talent, I think you feel pretty good coming away with a guy like Mike.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 77 Pow, 93 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 1
Scouting File Score: 89.51

04. :tor3: SP Mike Cranstoun
He has the same exact vitals as Hunter, so that's good. However, his overall is five points higher and his home runs are a question. He does have two years of lower homers and a nice GB%, but it's the two seasons of high HR/9, one being significantly high (1.55 in '64) that concerns me. Even though it's his freshman year, Mogul generally doesn't put something like that in a player's profile unless it's something to take notice.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 75 Pow, 88 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 10
Scouting File Score: 85.45

05. :was2: SP Jacob Dunwitty
He's the pitcher that I'm most intrigued with. His profile is something I usually avoid since pitchers with control significantly higher than movement usually get shelled (usually high home runs). However, he doesn't have those issues. Having superb control is nearly a guarantee. Despite my scouting score suggesting he should have decent power, I question that since he's never showed that so far. He should be a quite solid and reliable pitcher down the road.

Grade:
Future Skills: 96 Con, 77 Pow, 86 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 33
Scouting File Score: 82.45

06. :bal3: SP James Carter
There's some things to like and some things not to like about him. The first notable thing is that he only has two pitches. Will he learn another pitch? How will he fare as a starter if he only ends up with two pitches? Next, his home runs are a tad high. Nothing too outrageous and his youth could allow him to grow out of them, but that doesn't always happen.

The good is that his Fastball will be very good and while being a power pitcher, his GB% isn't as low as Mogul usually generates for strikeout arms. In the end, I think this is a 50/50 pick where he'll either end up really good or really mediocre.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 84 Pow, 88 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 5
Scouting File Score: 87.60

07. :sdp2: RP/SP Lewis Hulsey
Despite poor projections, I like him. He can easily out-progress his Scouting File numbers. He'll at least end up with decent control and movement with power that's middle of the road for relievers. He's also got the chance to develop into a conversion candidate. Still, I would question if it's a little bit earlier to take him. Despite the praise and good looking build, there may still be some better pitchers, ones who you know are capable of starting still on the board

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 67 Pow, 80 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 34
Scouting File Score: 82.25

08. :tex2: SP Moreno Venardos
He's got a solid opening build. He's both aged and progressed. He's got amazingly mixed reviews on his home runs - some years around 1.5 HR/9 and others around 0.6 HR/9. That has me concerned on his overall production. Multiple very high home run years in the amateur stats usually spells trouble for the player in the majors. Though with that solid build, it's not the worst thing to chance.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 69 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 32
Scouting File Score: 82.53

09. :sea2: 1B Jon Mullinax
Why? It's not even about his build. It's a simple lesson in math and Mogul. We already know he fell 5 points when aged (82 to 77). We know every draftee has their Career Window jump in the future (+4), which shortens their true developmental upside. So, to recap, he went from 68/82 to 68/77 and essentially is now 72/77 when you factor in the Career Window jump.

Mogul is also consistent when aging players. You won't see a guy drop 7 one season and then only drop 2 the next. If a player has 9 true upside remaining, he may drop 5 one year and then 4 the next due to rounding, but the drops will always be within +/- 1. So, this points to Mullinax only having 2068 the progress (unless by some miracle he's able to jump in Sim #1 of 2069). With such bleak upside at a position that you can always find a replacement level player in Free Agency for nothing, I'm not sure he was worth drafting period. Not until the 6th round in the least.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 78 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 52
Scouting File Score: 80.58

10. :pit2: SP Clark Scott
He's got an interesting power build. However, like seemingly many pitchers in the draft, he shows some serious home run problems. If the home run issues didn't exist, I'd say he's a real nice pitcher. But with all seasons except 2067 above 1.0 HR/9, it's real huge concern. Enough for me to not even have him on my draft list.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 90 Pow, 89 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 3
Scouting File Score: 88.80

11. :laa2: SP Will Streit
Yeah, home run issues...blah, blah, blah. Though, he is just 18 and I'm not as concerned about them when a pitcher is this young. With more time to develop past those issues, his solid build projection is more appealing.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 85 Pow, 88 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 4
Scouting File Score: 88.56

12. :chc2: SP Corey Crocombe
I can understand why he dropped. He doesn't have a great build and he's about to turn 21. Though, I'm intrigued. His only high home run year was his only college season and sometimes pitchers will see a random spike in home runs in their only collegiate season without it effecting their future. We've also seen these builds that are poor to their overall have some good jumps and eventually develop into an expected build for the overall. Even if not, his build is quite solid and should at least give him good movement.

Grade:
Future Skills: 82 Con, 72 Pow, 90 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 14
Scouting File Score: 84.95

13. :chw2: RP Jose Miamo
Terrible control, home runs galore, and a day away from turning 20. This is an auto-pick that everyone wanted to stay away from. I imagine he'll have to be a reliever in the majors. Starting out with sub-55 control is nearly a death sentence on your starting aspirations.

Grade:
Future Skills: 72 Con, 76 Pow, 91 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 92
Scouting File Score: 76.87

14. :mil2: SP Brent Wilson
Those home runs... His control being tit for tat with his movement isn't a great way to start out a build either. He projects rather solidly, but I question how productive he'll be. I see a Tom Little 2.0 in the making. Some very good years (when the ball stays in the park), but overall a poor showing.

Grade:
Future Skills: 76 Con, 89 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 29
Scouting File Score: 83.24

15. :nyy2: DH/2B Oscar DePaulo
Even with good speed, I have a hard time feeling that he can stay at 2B. Some of the concern is in his weak arm as well. Realistically, you'd think a weak arm at 2B isn't a concern, but in Mogul in seems to be a high factor in double play scenarios. Though, I don't completely write him off as being able to play the field since FCM drafts have seemed to be lacking many good middle infielders. If this continues, his type of future range may do just fine. His bat should be rather solid. It won't be the typical DH slugger, but with his speed you can probably justify DHing him.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 81 Pow, 84 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 17
Scouting File Score: 84.46

16. 3B Samuel Viland
He projects reasonably well offensively and defensively. He's not great on either side of the ball, but should be starter worthy.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 81 Pow, 77 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 15
Scouting File Score: 84.65

17. :sfg2: LF Kevin Creegan
I think his defensive makeup profiles better in RF, but with his lack of (good) predicteds there, I question how he'd actually perform there. As it stands, his lack of speed or range is a bit of a liability for LF. He should have great contact and may have solid doubles power. He'll walk to a solid clip, but without great home run power or speed, I can't see him being much more than just a startable player.

Grade:
Future Skills: 92 Con, 83 Pow, 83 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 8
Scouting File Score: 85.68

18. :bal3: LF Gene Wood
He's a fairly interesting player. He's not overly fast or have good power, but he's a switch hitter with reasonable defense and he's not a complete base clogger. There's reason to believe his contact could take off more than he projects and that would make him a very enticing player to have.

Grade:
Future Skills: 91 Con, 78 Pow, 79 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 6
Scouting File Score: 86.76

19. CF Neal Madewell
He's a great speed threat and profiles as someone who can see their contact really skyrocket. He's got a good chance at becoming a reliable top of the order bat.

Grade:
Future Skills: 81 Con, 73 Pow, 75 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 26
Scouting File Score: 83.31

20. :oak2: RP Alejandro Castro
He should have fine movement, but his control may never reach major league material. The end.

Grade:
Future Skills: 68 Con, 78 Pow, 91 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 103
Scouting File Score: 75.74

21. :lad2: RP Ramon Manuel
With movement already ahead of not-so-good control it'll be tough to see him in a rotation. His home runs a bit high, but he has enough upside to develop through them and at least be a decent bullpen piece.

Grade:
Future Skills: 73 Con, 78 Pow, 95 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 64
Scouting File Score: 79.21

22. :stl2: SP James Gabbard
He has a great build and will have a dominant Fastball and a very good Cutter. The problem is he's allowed quite a lot of home runs, nearing a 1.5 HR/9 average in high school. He's got a shot to be in the rotation, but I'm not confident in him being more than a guy you eventually upgrade.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 83 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 7
Scouting File Score: 85.81

23. :bal3: 1B Miguel Deduesada
Despite being a terrible catcher, he has some skill at first base. He should have great power and his contact should be enough to get him in the starting lineup. While I'm a little perplexed as to why my Scouting File ranks him so well, there certainly is value in a guy who could have 30+ HR power.

Grade:
Future Skills: 76 Con, 91 Pow, 74 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 2
Scouting File Score: 88.81

24. :nym2: LF/DH Rob Beiser
He's got decent contact and power, but his eye is bad and his glovework is poor. Being a lefty may help his future starting possibilities, but without a better eye or defense, I can't seem him being great. We'll see if his contact can carry him.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 80 Pow, 72 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 37
Scouting File Score: 82.01

25. :tor3: DH Ed Service
He'll never be good enough to play the field, but he's got a solid enough bat to become a reliable DH. With some luck, he could be a very good bat with potentially top notch OPS ability.

Grade:
Future Skills: 83 Con, 86 Pow, 86 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 30
Scouting File Score: 83.01

26. :nyy2: DH/2B Daniel Peay
See Oscar DePaulo. Peay is a spitting image of DePaulo, another speedster who lacks quality range up the middle.

Grade:
Future Skills: 86 Con, 80 Pow, 85 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 23
Scouting File Score: 83.58

27. :bos2: LF Kevin Boles
He'll have great power, but probably not enough contact to be more than a platoon vs LHP. In addition to struggling to hit for average, it doesn't appear he'll walk much either.

Grade:
Future Skills: 70 Con, 98 Pow, 71 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 94
Scouting File Score: 76.58

28. :was2: RF/CF Tom Schaub
He's got some speed, but his offensive skillset doesn't add up to a reliable hitter. Defensively, he's got a great arm, but without better speed or range, I think he'll be better suited for right field.

Grade:
Future Skills: 79 Con, 74 Pow, 70 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 57
Scouting File Score: 80.23

29. :cin2: CF Todd Kruszewski
He's another big speed threat and has great splits vs RHP. He should easily wind up a starter and someone who should've gone earlier, considering the other options.

Grade:
Future Skills: 78 Con, 66 Pow, 84 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 19
Scouting File Score: 84.05

30. :det2: SP Brian Lowe
He's got a great build for his overall and two pitches well above his overall, which should stand to stick as quality offerings. He should develop into a quality middle rotation arm.

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 71 Pow, 84 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 42
Scouting File Score: 81.83

31. RP Adam Cannon
Maybe his control comes around, but starting out sub-55 has its obstacles. Even if it does hit 70+, he seems to give up a decent amount of home runs, so I can't see him being more than a third tier reliever.

Grade:
Future Skills: 66 Con, 63 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 84
Scouting File Score: 77.47

[mattynokes]