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2083 Nokes Draft Grades - mattynokes - 09-09-2018 Finally on a working computer for the first time since mine died during the 2078 Draft Grades. 01. CF Mark Matte Before I even started scouting, I figured the only way I wasn't going SP at #5 was to get an elite leadoff SS or CF. Matte is exactly that and the closet thing we'll see to Ivan Velasquez for some time. His contact will certainly be elite and he'll walk a lot. He's not only fast, but has elite base stealing ability. The only knock is that you'd like to see better range from a CF, but his speed will help make up for what will likely be slightly above average range in the end. He's supreme talent. Even if you had an elite leadoff CF, he should have been your pick at #1. Grade: Future Skills: 100 Con, 67 Pow, 90 Eye Scouting File Rank: 5 Scouting File Score: 92.84 02. 2B Jaykuam Brown My big question will be if mzylinski will start him in the majors out of the gate? Because I think he should. He's already jumped, so waiting for a jump isn't going to be a thing. His contact is already above 70 vs RHP, so only mild concerns of him struggling. We're past the super 2 cutoff (that's after Sim #3), so he'd be controllable through age 27 at a minimum, and Seattle is the perfect situation is just let a young guy battle through any early career troubles. Though I question how good he'll really be. He looks impressive now, but he reminds me of Angel Fernandes, who was a worthy starter, but despite the perceived good vitals was only a .750 OPS performer during his peak years. So, overall I think it's a good pick, but seeing what is probably going be a short development, it's tough to think Brown will be a franchise player and that he's actually just a safe pick. Grade: Future Skills: 81 Con, 89 Pow, 84 Eye Scouting File Rank: 7 Scouting File Score: 91.32 03. 1B Zack Winstanley Despite my file absolutely loving him, it should be no surprise that I'm just lukewarm on him. Those low K builds have a tendency to struggle to hit for the average that you think their contact would produce (think how a 90 contact might only hit like he has 80 contact). I have a hard time believing he'll be anything more than just an above average bat. Sure, that sounds good, but at 1B I want a big time bat as a simple "above average" hitter would barely get you 2+ bWAR (startable) value. Grade: Future Skills: 94 Con, 92 Pow, 95 Eye Scouting File Rank: 1 Scouting File Score: 95.99 04. SP Guillerme Sanchez He's good, but he wasn't my best SP on the board and I had Sanchez pretty even with a SP that went outside of the top 10. He should have solid control and good movement. His home runs could be high or they could be just fine. Being older and already a 65 overall makes that more of a worry than 50's overall 17 or 18 year old. In the end, I think he'll become a reliable starter, but I think you'll see others surpass his peak production. Grade: Future Skills: 87 Con, 78 Pow, 90 Mov Scouting File Rank: 12 Scouting File Score: 89.57 05. SP Tim Ford He was the second best player on my board and I was shocked that he didn't go within the top 3. Even though he'll be 20 soon (like Sanchez), I'm not as worried about his potential home run issues. Ford has 30 points of developmental upside (while Sanchez has 21). So, there's a good chance Ford has just as much time to develop as an 18 year old. If Ford has the time to develop - mixed in with his good repertoire, high GB%, and good control for his overall - he could be an Ace. But if those home run issues surface, then he'll become just a mid-rotation arm. Grade: Future Skills: 94 Con, 80 Pow, 93 Mov Scouting File Rank: 2 Scouting File Score: 93.35 06. SP Ricardo Santoino First off, I feel bad for him. He'll consistently have his name misspelled as SantonIo instead of SantoIno (much like Jorge VendEr). He was a guy that I was very high on. He's extremely young, doesn't show home run issues, has a good GB%, and a great starting build. Only having 22 developmental upside at 17 makes you wonder if he'll peak out quickly. I can also see some being concerned with him only having two pitches. However, to my knowledge there hasn't been any proof that only having two pitches hurts performance. Plus he can always develop a third pitch at some point. Grade: Future Skills: 85 Con, 74 Pow, 89 Mov Scouting File Rank: 23 Scouting File Score: 87.40 07. SP Alexis Diaz He's quite interesting. His power and movement are both above his control and he's already in the 60's overall, which would usually be enough reason to cross him off your target list. However, he's just 16 and won't turn 17 until the midway point of the season. Power pitchers have shown to have a high degree of success recently and being uber young, there's reason to think he could develop into a successful pitcher. All that said, I do think he was taken too early. I would've had him slotted for late (r ) 1st round value. Grade: Future Skills: 73 Con, 85 Pow, 90 Mov Scouting File Rank: 58 Scouting File Score: 83.34 08. 3B Neil Tussey He's an excellent pick. An elite fielder with some pop at a position where you tend to get one of the other is nothing to shy away from. I usually hate on picking infielders early, but this is a guy to circle the wagons around since he's a multi-faceted performer. He should have went earlier. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 91 Pow, 72 Eye Scouting File Rank: 15 Scouting File Score: 89.41 09. SP Rich Haven Despite what some nitwits who can't read think I said, I didn't say the build is bad, I said they're a tease for being elite. I think back to Jacob Dunwitty, who was put on a pedestal and thought as a pitcher who will dominate. Now (speaking on Dunwitty), a career 3.67 ERA is nothing bad and he's had some great seasons. However, he's been inconsistent and Haven could struggle with the same as many with the build that ends up with control a good amount higher than their movement. Which is being susceptible to high home runs and/or high OBAs. When it all comes together (like Dunwitty's 2074), Haven can be great. It's the juggling act of will he turn in a 3.00 season or a 4.00 season? Grade: Future Skills: 96 Con, 77 Pow, 87 Mov Scouting File Rank: 17 Scouting File Score: 88.69 10. 1B Brian Highbarger Probably not the guy you want auto'd. While he is a lefty, he likely won't have all that great of power and his BB+K numbers suggest he has a low BB/low K eye. Sadly that's just a bland hitter and a position that you can put a monkey on defense and come out alright enough. Grade: Future Skills: 98 Con, 88 Pow, 84 Eye Scouting File Rank: 4 Scouting File Score: 93.15 11. SP Chris Waterston GB sucks. Now that we got that out of the way, Waterston is the kind of SP you look for. When he aged, he only dropped 2 points and he has a nice starting build. He does have one high home run season (and even just one high season could spell problems), but being 17 and only dropping two points basically renders home runs a moot point. He projects well and I would not be surprised to see him go far beyond the projections, especially with an early WB. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 80 Pow, 87 Mov Scouting File Rank: 8 Scouting File Score: 91.28 12. 1B Jeff Thirtle I really had no business adding yet another 1B (with three 1B prospects in the minors and a rookie in the majors), but a lefty bat with his power potential was too good to pass up. And that's pretty much it. He's a mega power hitting lefty. A lot to like there. Grade: Future Skills: 79 Con, 100 Pow, 79 Eye Scouting File Rank: 10 Scouting File Score: 90.06 13. SP Sean Untalan On first glance, he's nothing special. Comparatively to his overall, his build is behind the eight-ball. While his build isn't great, it's not bad either. If you treat him like he's a 66/88 (-5 from his overall and peak), then his build makes sense. He likely won't have control beyond the low 80's, but his movement could be very good. 2081 was a very high home run season for him, but he has some low HR/9 years as well, so overall I wouldn't be worried. This has the screams of an auto-pick, but it's not the worst of situations to be in. Grade: Future Skills: 82 Con, 71 Pow, 93 Mov Scouting File Rank: 28 Scouting File Score: 86.64 14. DH/LF Seth Blakey While (aside from injuries forcing the issue) he's a DH, he has a pretty good bat. He's got a chance at 90 contact, power, and eye. Plus his splits are nearly that of a switch hitter. Grade: Future Skills: 92 Con, 90 Pow, 88 Eye Scouting File Rank: 16 Scouting File Score: 88.84 15. RF Dustin Hall There were a lot of corner outfielders to like and Hall is one to really like. He's got what you want going for him. He's a lefty with loads of power and a big arm for RF. The only concerning thing about him is that he'll likely never be good enough to hit LHP. Some might say his fielding is poor, but his glovework is 80 and that's something I'll care more about that overall fielding for an OF. Grade: Future Skills: 74 Con, 98 Pow, 78 Eye Scouting File Rank: 24 Scouting File Score: 87.28 16. 2B Raphael Salazar I like Salazar, but I think it's far too early to take him. He certainly has the contact/speed combo you salivate over. And really, personally I wouldn't be worried about his defense if I had him. But, I question how his defense will be handled. As-is, his defense is bad. He needs to be handled just like I did with Tommy Cake, Martin Trevor, and (started on) Albert Rumbo. PCing Salazar to another position and then playing him at 2B once in the majors will get him to PC back to 2B after 2 years. Now it's never guaranteed to be a magic fix (see Garrett Dobbins), but it's the only way Salazar will ever have a chance of being considered useful in the field. For that kind of risk, I think he was taken a round (if not a little more) too early. Grade: Future Skills: 80 Con, 62 Pow, 78 Eye Scouting File Rank: 60 Scouting File Score: 83.16 17. RF/LF/DH Justin Tunnicliffe I know some will claim he's a DH and even if he can play the field, it'll have to be LF. Now certainly I don't think he's an ideal candidate to play in the field, but I think he'll be good enough if you have bats elsewhere that you cannot play on the corners (he projects to end up around 70-75-75 defensively). And despite his lack of an arm, I would rather him be in RF than LF, because in Mogul, I feel it's best to treat LF like Little CF and would rather better range (and speed) there. The big knock on him offensively is that he may not do any one thing real great. He's got a well-rounded bat and should hit for a solid average, some power, and walk a bit. Quietly, I think his health is a nice bonus. A lot of people stay away from the high health guys, since usually it does detract a little from their peak, but that's not always the case. Plus the difference in a 90 health and average health (75) in terms of games played is probably around 150-155 vs 140-145. To me, an extra 10 games with your regulars is a big deal. Grade: Future Skills: 90 Con, 86 Pow, 82 Eye Scouting File Rank: 26 Scouting File Score: 86.84 18. DH/LF Jim Smith I wouldn't have taken him. Probably ever. He's Jon Mullinax v2.0. Smith dropped from 94 to 89 on his b-day. Which remember BM14 counts by 2 for Overall or Peak above 92. So, that means a 94 is really 95 or 96. Smith dropped 6 or 7 when he aged. The good thing is that he hasn't jumped, so if he sees enough development with his 2083 jump, all will not be lost. However chances are he peaks out next April 30th. His power will be his saving grace, it could get into the 90's. But there's the risk that if he doesn't jump (or it's very minimal) that you're stuck with a platoon OF. There were much higher ceiling COF options left on the table. Grade: Future Skills: 79 Con, 92 Pow, 77 Eye Scouting File Rank: 45 Scouting File Score: 84.69 19. SP Adam Thompson While he does look like he could be a low home run guy, his control just looks terrible. It's already well behind his power and movement, so with limited upside, he'll have a hard time developing his control to anything respectable. With his movement (and low home runs), he'll have the talent to stick at the bottom of the rotation. However, that's just too low of a ceiling to take at this point. Grade: Future Skills: 75 Con, 80 Pow, 91 Mov Scouting File Rank: 53 Scouting File Score: 84.03 20. 3B Frederic Arribi If you couldn't land Tussey, this is a great consolation prize. Arribi's defense is some of the best you'll see at 3B. He also didn't drop very much when he aged. So, despite what looks like limited upside, should be plenty of time to develop. He probably won't ever be a great bat, but he can run a little bit and will draw walks. If he can end up a league-average OPS bat, he'll be a great selection with his elite-plus defense. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 78 Pow, 92 Eye Scouting File Rank: 3 Scouting File Score: 93.33 21. RF Scott Booth While he almost assuredly will never be good enough to hit LHP, I like him. It's not tough to find a righty bat who can hit LHP and you see RHP about 75% of the time, so the fact that he's a platoon guy isn't much of a worry being that he's on the correct side of the platoon. His power potential is sky high, he can play defense (even in CF to fill-in), and he shouldn't be injured often. There is slight concern about his contact, but considering his career window, he's already a 67 contact vs RHP. Grade: Future Skills: 92 Con, 90 Pow, 88 Eye Scouting File Rank: 40 Scouting File Score: 85.11 22. SP Peter Williams He's alright, outside of one year, nothing too crazy for home runs allowed. Still, with guys who project to have control a good amount above their movement, home runs could be an issue. Either that and/or high OBAs. He doesn't seem like a poster child for those issues, so it's a solid pick. I still think there were higher ceiling pitchers on the board. Grade: Future Skills: 89 Con, 69 Pow, 83 Mov Scouting File Rank: 64 Scouting File Score: 82.94 23. SP Matt Wall He's got a nice starting build and a fantastic blend of good, but not too good endurance and health. His home runs do look high, but being just 17 and having a high GB%, it's nothing to be overly concerned with. I think he has a great chance of beating his projections and becoming a very good starter. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 74 Pow, 84 Mov Scouting File Rank: 32 Scouting File Score: 86.02 24. 3B/1B Sean Stanton He could have nice power and eye, but this is probably not the auto-pick you want. His defense is just so-so at 3B and might make more sense at 1B. While projections have his contact being alright, it's still troubling being a righty and that if he falls short of his projections, he could be a platoon vs LHP only hitter. There's a good reason he fell to being an auto-pick in the late 1st round, but this could also be a pick looked back on and seen as a missed opportunity for earlier picks. Grade: Future Skills: 75 Con, 93 Pow, 89 Eye Scouting File Rank: 18 Scouting File Score: 88.43 25. 1B Matt Washington Being a clone of Winstanley and only have 6 upside doesn't excite me in the least. He should have solid looking contact, but like with Winstanley, I fear it'll be fluff and he won't hit up to that number. In the end, he may be a startable player, but nothing exciting. Grade: Future Skills: 86 Con, 87 Pow, 95 Eye Scouting File Rank: 9 Scouting File Score: 91.26 26. 1B Luc Walters He's a solid balanced bat, but with how close his contact already is to his power, I question how good he'll be. I think his contact will eventually overtake his power and he'll wind up ~mid 80's in all three contact, power, and eye. Not the worst player to have, especially being a lefty. But also not what you strive for. Grade: Future Skills: 87 Con, 85 Pow, 82 Eye Scouting File Rank: 33 Scouting File Score: 85.98 27. SS Jeff Smart On one hand I think it's too early to take him. On another hand, I realize that this draft is very weak on middle infielders and this isn't reaching into the top 10 either. He'll obviously be good enough defensively. He does take a -3 drop vs RHP and that will hamper his value most of the time. We know he dropped 3 when he aged and with only 7 true upside, it's likely he peaks out at age 23. A good thing for him is that he'll walk a good amount and is a decent base stealing threat. So even if he struggles to hit average-wise, he'll still add some value to the lineup. Grade: Future Skills: 80 Con, 67 Pow, 90 Eye Scouting File Rank: 6 Scouting File Score: 91.64 28. SP Bryan Chapman I really have a tough time getting over his poor control. He is very young and he only shows minimal home run issues which (being this young) aren't really a cause for concern. It's just the doubts of where his control ends up. If it ends up in the low 70's then he'll be unspectacular, but if he can get into the upper 70's, he could be a pretty solid bottom of the rotation starter. Grade: Future Skills: 70 Con, 84 Pow, 88 Mov Scouting File Rank: 121 Scouting File Score: 77.52 29. 1B/DH Jason Benjamin On my initial look, I didn't like him, but after a little math and I had him as my 2nd 1B in the entire draft. So, let's math... Benjamin dropped from 94 (95 or 96) to 92 when he aged. So a 3 or 4 point drop. He's really 65/92 when considering his career window jump. So he has 27 points of upside and with dropping 3 or 4 points every year, he'd have at least 7 years to develop. Back to the initial look, he doesn't look impressive on draft day. He's a righty bat with a poor eye and poor defense. All he has is power. However, it's realizing the time to develop where his value comes from. He projects out to have great power and contact and defense that will be tolerable. Any other position and I'd still be down on his defense. But if you have predicteds at 1B, then you'll probably suffice. His ceiling is MUCH higher than some of the other 1B taken ahead of him. Grade: Future Skills: 91 Con, 96 Pow, 78 Eye Scouting File Rank: 11 Scouting File Score: 89.98 30. SP Will Broam Stymied by Warpriest! Broam was my pick at #31. However, it did send Peter into a tiffy since I had too look elsewhere for a pick (and was setting up my Comp A picks), so it wasn't all bad to miss out on Broam. He's got a very nice draft day build, doesn't show home run issues, and has a nice GB%. He could end up with very nice control/movement combo. Warpriest don't trade this guy! Develop and hold onto a good SP for once! Grade: Future Skills: 86 Con, 74 Pow, 89 Mov Scouting File Rank: 22 Scouting File Score: 87.67 31. SP Eric Dyer He's got a nice build where his control and movement are higher than his overall. Even being older, he should have plenty of time to develop since he only dropped 2 points when he aged. He's also got a nice GB% and nothing to be overly worried about in the home run department. I doubt he'll ever be an exceptional pitcher, but he projects to be a reliable contributor. Grade: Future Skills: 82 Con, 72 Pow, 88 Mov Scouting File Rank: 19 Scouting File Score: 88.06 32. SP Gaetan Carposo Much like Bryan Chapman, Carposo's outlook hinges on his control. We'll also get a good idea of how long he'll have to develop soon enough and that'll largely tell the story of control's development. He'll certainly rack up strikeouts, but it'll circle back to questions about his control. If his control gets to a suitable level, he could be pretty good. Grade: Future Skills: 73 Con, 89 Pow, 85 Mov Scouting File Rank: 80 Scouting File Score: 81.57 33. SP Quinton Lobenstein - Through Minnesota There was a deal set up before the draft, so by all accounts I made the pick. He has the control questions that a couple of the others above have. Though, Lobenstein has more perceived upside, so I have more faith in him developing his control. If he does, he'll added it to solid power and good movement. Having over 30 upside is good start to get there. Grade: Future Skills: 72 Con, 83 Pow, 88 Mov Scouting File Rank: 91 Scouting File Score: 80.54 RE: 2083 Nokes Draft Grades - mattynokes - 09-16-2018 It's all done!