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2066 Nokes Draft Grades - mattynokes - 10-05-2016 I'm not sure if this was a good or bad draft. And I mean that without any hidden messages. I didn't scout the draft since I dealt away all my picks and other than briefly looking over a few players when I was asked, my first look at the draft class was when I decided to review the class. Unless you needed a middle of the order 1B, I tend to think it was bland. There's usually some surprises, so maybe other positions will develop well, but it seems (save a few players here and there) other positions are just uninspiring. Simply based on where the scouting scores lie this year, this was not a draft to be heavily invested in. 01. SP Ryan Chesney Admittedly, I'm a little worried about the higher home runs he showed in a couple seasons, but other than that, he has a very promising build. He should have quality control and movement, while being able to actually strikeout a few batters. His repertoire should very solid with a potential dominant Fastball. If he can overcome to home run issues, he could be an Ace. Grade: Future Skills: 88 Con, 84 Pow, 91 Mov Scouting File Rank: 3 Scouting File Score: 91.01 02. :phi2: 2B/3B Ivan Vargag The middle infield in FCM has basically turned into a shit-show offensively, so when you can get a guy who looks like he might actually be able to produce at the plate a bit while playing very good defense, you take him. His poor fielding is a bit of an issue, but he'll have pretty good range to go with an elite arm. And yes, I know we have a handful of 20ish HR guys, but overall their production is still only around .700-.725 - which is not ideal. Grade: Future Skills: 87 Con, 78 Pow, 77 Eye Scouting File Rank: 11 Scouting File Score: 87.88 03. 1B Kevin Webster Despite charming projections, I'm not much a fan of his. While he's not the same build, I still see a big similarity is his strikeout numbers and can foresee similar underwhelming results as Shane McGee and Alan McGaw displayed. Grade: Future Skills: 98 Con, 88 Pow, 82 Eye Scouting File Rank: 5 Scouting File Score: 89.93 04. :col2: SP Adam Agee Even though my formula didn't rank him high, I like him better than Chesney. However, my formula did it's job. These control builds will usually struggle. It's not that I don't like control. It's that more times than not, having control project to peak higher than movement suggests the pitcher will have trouble with home runs and/or hits allowed. Tony Norris is a great example in FCM's past. Agee does not have those same red flags (all seasons under 1.00 HR/9) and even if his control does stay higher than his movement, he should be very good. If he doesn't develop into an Ace, then he'll be a great #2 who you can always rely on. Grade: Future Skills: 92 Con, 77 Pow, 90 Mov Scouting File Rank: 8 Scouting File Score: 88.36 05. :hou3: SS/2B Greg Riggle I have mixed feelings on this. I think this may be from seeing how Eric Lindsay turned out and I would still question how much of a success the Lindsay pick was. Sure, he had a great showing in 2065, but as of June 4th this season, his numbers are much different and show what I stress about low strikeout players. It's far too early to know exactly where Lindsay's production sits, so I'd hope the pick of Riggle wasn't influenced much by him. With Riggle's defense, if he can put up a .733 OPS, it'll probably be a successful pick. So, then where do I see fault in the pick? In my experience, draftees jump at a much lesser rate than prospects that have been in your system for an entire season. Much of Lindsay's development was predicated on him jumping during that first season, just like Riggle's will. If Riggle can't jump, this could be a disaster. It's simply a huge risk and not one that I'd want to make in the top five. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 63 Pow, 88 Eye Scouting File Rank: 14 Scouting File Score: 86.79 06. :pit2: SP Rafael Goyochea First off, WOW that repertoire! It's tough to say if his overall will eventually develop over his pitches, but you'd have to think he'll still have three very good, potentially even dominant pitches. I normally would hate on these builds, but I'm always open to any type of build that I think can be successful. Power build can sometimes make you a little uneasy, but that's when they allow a lot of homers. Save one season, his HR/9 has been pretty low. He could potentially turn in to that pitcher you always expect to be good (good K/9, low HR/9) in Mogul and actually be good. Grade: Future Skills: 80 Con, 88 Pow, 89 Mov Scouting File Rank: 7 Scouting File Score: 88.63 07. :pit2: 1B/DH Javy Hernandez He shows great potential, but I do have to agree with his projections that (with contact being decently close to power) his power likely won't become great. However, showing double digits in both 2B and HR is encouraging for a balanced power attack (potentially 30-35 2B and 25-30 HR). Still, his contact should be great (with high strikeouts) and his eye should be decent enough. He'll be a very interesting player to watch develop. Grade: Future Skills: 94 Con, 90 Pow, 79 Eye Scouting File Rank: 4 Scouting File Score: 90.35 08. LF Lovell Robinson This was a guy that I was asked before the draft and I was very impressed with him. Every important vital is above his overall, his HR display is quite impressive with only 71 power, and he put up great numbers every season. I think he may end up the best bat in this class and have many people looking back, going, "Damn, I let him fall to #8!?" Grade: Future Skills: 96 Con, 83 Pow, 91 Eye Scouting File Rank: 1 Scouting File Score: 91.90 09. :fla2: RF Brian Fenn I used to love on these type of builds, but after seeing some fail (notably Josepth Orth) to produce, these builds are a "Pass" for me when scouting. He'll undoubtedly walk a ton and should hit for some power, but will he hit for average? That's been the undoing of most of the players with this build. 80-90 walks, 20-25 HRs, but only a .240 AVG. With being slow and just so-so defensively, that's just not a great offensive line to look forward to. Grade: Future Skills: 85 Con, 86 Pow, 96 Eye Scouting File Rank: 18 Scouting File Score: 86.61 10. :nyy2: RP Tom William This is just a waste of a pick because he has a high peak. I don't care that he's 16. He has shitty control and has shown high home runs each year. He's a guy that you just pray his control gets 70+ so that you can throw him in the bullpen. Grade: Future Skills: 72 Con, 83 Pow, 100 Mov Scouting File Rank: 39 Scouting File Score: 83.04 11. RP Kevin Lester He's just another Tom William. His home runs were high 3 out of his 4 years and despite his youth, his control is shoddy. He's a future non-leverage situation reliever. Grade: Future Skills: 70 Con, 85 Pow, 94 Mov Scouting File Rank: 61 Scouting File Score: 79.67 12. :tor3: CF Raul Aramburd He's quite a dynamic bat. He likely won't be great at any one skill, but he'll likely be above average across the board. He's simply one of those players that on draft day is tough to see the value in his build, but once your project his probable development, you get a very good player. Grade: Future Skills: 86 Con, 85 Pow, 81 Eye Scouting File Rank: 10 Scouting File Score: 88.21 13. :sdp2: SP Loren Hogan He's ok, but he appears what I warn about with high control pitchers. In two seasons he showed high home runs and in all but one season, his OBA was pretty high. For the home runs, even though he has three other seasons that are fine, one of the two bad seasons is really bad (1.87 HR/9 in 2063). He will have great control, but I suspect with his potential home run or hits issues, he'll pitch more like a bottom of the rotation arm than top of the rotation or even a mid-rotation arm. Grade: Future Skills: 97 Con, 71 Pow, 88 Mov Scouting File Rank: 45 Scouting File Score: 82.20 14. 1B Brian Wynch I'm a big fan of his and I think his March birthday helped allow his perceived value to slide a little bit simply because he now shows a sub-90 peak. He projects pretty well and if he gets close to his initial 92 peak, then I think he's potentially an elite bat. If not, and he peaks out around 88, then I think you're still getting a middle of the order bat. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 86 Pow, 87 Eye Scouting File Rank: 13 Scouting File Score: 87.01 15. :pit2: RF Julio Patron He has about the ideal defense for RF and should have great power when he's done developing. His contact and eye likely won't look great, but with high strikeouts, I think they'll both be solidly productive vitals. A good bet on him being a #5 hitter, potential the cleanup guy. Grade: Future Skills: 79 Con, 93 Pow, 79 Eye Scouting File Rank: 26 Scouting File Score: 85.22 16. :chw2: 1B Eric Dunseith I'm a little surprised that a 16 year old with his power and walk potential slid this far. Maybe it was because many saw him as a DH with his sub-70 fielding? However, I wouldn't hesitate to play him in the field. His range is much better than the normal 1B and so is his arm. How much does a good arm add for a 1B? That's tough to say, but it's Mogul, so I think it matters more than we'd realistically presume. I can easily see a good arm 1B starting a lot more 3-6-3 double plays. Again, it's Mogul and it's been apparent that strong arm 2B are solidly more productive than weak arm 2B in FCM, so I can't see a reason to think it'd treat 1B any different. Back to Dunseith. He projects to be a well-rounded, above average hitter. With him being just 16, it's easy to see him beating his 90 draft day peak and becoming a star. Grade: Future Skills: 90 Con, 89 Pow, 89 Eye Scouting File Rank: 2 Scouting File Score: 91.11 17. :pit2: 2B/DH Jace Flanaghan Meh. Just not too much of a fan of his. His offense looks like it'll be decent, but he's also already jumped, so buying on his 90 peak is a little bit of fool's gold. He's also not great defensively to the point where I'd question if he'll even be good enough at 2B for FCM standards. And if he's just a DH, I think you can do considerably better. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 81 Pow, 77 Eye Scouting File Rank: 43 Scouting File Score: 82.36 18. :bal3: 1B/LF Justin Pavlov In no way will he ever be good enough to face LHPs, but he could rake against RHPs. The projections have him at near-elite power and eye and being +3 vs RHP, his contact will certainly be good enough. With a solid arm, he adds a slight benefit to also be able to play the outfield as well. Grade: Future Skills: 79 Con, 94 Pow, 93 Eye Scouting File Rank: 6 Scouting File Score: 88.87 19. :phi2: SP Omar Marcano He's a very peculiar arm. He has a few high home run seasons, enough to where I'd say to stay away from that type of pitcher. However, he's also posted very good BB/9 and K/9 numbers while posted very good ERAs every season. It could mean nothing, but it could mean something. He'll have two very good pitches to boot. For me, it comes down to if he'll be snakebit by home runs. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 85 Pow, 82 Mov Scouting File Rank: 28 Scouting File Score: 84.66 20. :stl2: 1B Ken Bonney Despite very low strikeouts and walks, I'm actually somewhat intrigued with him. With his build, his contact should shoot up very high and he may be a guy who can sustain a .325 AVG (which is what'll be needed for him to put up a good OPS). Though, he did already jump, so it takes a little away from his true upside (a positive winterball would go a long way for him). He also shows surprising power at just 73. In a way, I see him like Benito Carsolad. Their builds are different, but like with Carsolad, his production hinges on hitting a lot of home runs. Just like with Bonney and needing a very high batting average. It's the difference in those two being just an ordinary 1B and a good 1B. Grade: Future Skills: 91 Con, 82 Pow, 78 Eye Scouting File Rank: 33 Scouting File Score: 83.54 21. :phi2: DH/LF Gary Danielson He's got a decent enough power and contact combo, but his eye is bad and his overall defense is not good at all. With his range, he can suffice in the outfield, but is not the type you gun for. Grade: Future Skills: 91 Con, 82 Pow, 73 Eye Scouting File Rank: 25 Scouting File Score: 85.24 22. :pit2: RP Enrique Valle His control is dangerously low, but I do really like the home runs mostly being all very low. Though he is very young, I'm not sure he's worth the risk just yet. Grade: Future Skills: 69 Con, 67 Pow, 97 Mov Scouting File Rank: 68 Scouting File Score: 79.10 23. ::fla2: RP Ron Nagel He has a build where he'll be lucky if his control reaches 70+. He'll certainly have some strikeout ability and high quality movement. Though his senior season was downright embarrassing with a 1.77 HR/9. Grade: Future Skills: 71 Con, 84 Pow, 100 Mov Scouting File Rank: 44 Scouting File Score: 82.31 24. :oak2: RP Jason Baker He'll get his strikeouts and will have decent movement, but his control is behind the 8-ball and will be tough to see it develop where it needs to in order for him to remain a rotation option. It's hard to see much upside with him. Grade: Future Skills: 70 Con, 82 Pow, 82 Mov Scouting File Rank: 125 Scouting File Score: 73.41 25. :phi2: SP Roberto Bertot He projects fairly well and his home runs aren't anything a 17 year old doesn't have the time to develop past. It's a question of how Mogul treats a 5th pitch, but his Sinker should become a very, very good pitch. His upside is pretty high and a great get, considering the arms that just went ahead of him. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 78 Pow, 86 Mov Scouting File Rank: 17 Scouting File Score: 86.66 26. :min2: RP Socorro Valdez Grade: Future Skills: 73 Con, 90 Pow, 86 Mov Scouting File Rank: 73 Scouting File Score: 78.69 27. :nym2: SP Brian Iacona Grade: Future Skills: 87 Con, 74 Pow, 87 Mov Scouting File Rank: 9 Scouting File Score: 88.19 28. :bos2: RP Lemark Jackson Grade: Future Skills: 65 Con, 64 Pow, 98 Mov Scouting File Rank: 126 Scouting File Score: 73.29 29. :det2: SP Aaron Wells Grade: Future Skills: 83 Con, 82 Pow, 85 Mov Scouting File Rank: 12 Scouting File Score: 87.57 30. :tor3: SP Dana Watson Grade: Future Skills: 83 Con, 82 Pow, 84 Mov Scouting File Rank: 22 Scouting File Score: 85.56 31. :chw2: DH Matt Denning Grade: Future Skills: 67 Con, 100 Pow, 83 Eye Scouting File Rank: 28 Scouting File Score: 76.58 32. :bal3: SP Chris Rice Grade: Future Skills: 80 Con, 80 Pow, 81 Mov Scouting File Rank: 37 Scouting File Score: 83.30 RE: 2066 Nokes Draft Grades - mattynokes - 12-19-2016 2066 Scouting File