2056 Nokes Draft Grades - Printable Version +- First Class Mogul (https://www.firstclassmogul.com) +-- Forum: General (https://www.firstclassmogul.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Draft Analysis (https://www.firstclassmogul.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=117) +---- Forum: Nokes Draft Reviews (https://www.firstclassmogul.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=113) +---- Thread: 2056 Nokes Draft Grades (/showthread.php?tid=32300)

2056 Nokes Draft Grades - mattynokes - 07-20-2015 The Rank and Score are from my Scouting File. The Future Skills is calculated based off of their perceived upside on draft dray. Below is a table of where the talent falls. Grade Score Criteria A+ 95.0 Elite A 92.5 A- 90.0 Well Above B+ 87.5 B 85.0 Above B- 82.5 C+ 80.0 Avg C 77.5 C- 75.0 Below D+ 72.5 D 70.0 Well Above D- 67.5 F 65.0 Poor 01. :sdp2: SP Peter Wilson I liked another pitcher slightly more, but it was really a matter of 1A and 1B for the top 2 pitchers on my board. Wilson will be fantastic with a great Control/Movement combo and has a nice assortment of pitches to choose from. Also, have to love the low HRs and it’s great knowing that the complete bust potential is non-existent since with just hitting his window, he’s major league material. Grade: Future Skills: 87 Con, 71 Pow, 93 Mov Scouting File Rank: 5 Scouting File Score: 89.35 02. CF Keith Oshel I feel he should’ve been taken first overall. I have a tough time thinking he’ll be an elite leadoff man, but he should be very, very good at it. His contact and on-base skills should be through the roof, it’s just without being faster, it’s where he falls just short of elite. And that range, man! Grade: Future Skills: 98 Con, 67 Pow, 89 Eye Scouting File Rank: 3 Scouting File Score: 92.34 03. :mia: SP Oliver Unicume I like him, but he’s a little older and he was 69/93 on Opening Day and then 70/92 on Draft Day while already having aged. But it doesn’t appear that his vitals changed, so it’s very ambiguous to if he’s already jumped or if that 92 peak is real. If this were an 18/19 age prospect, then it wouldn’t matter much, but we’re talking an 21 prospect and it could backfire if he technically jumped and giving him very little upside. He should be a good pitcher, it’s just a question of “how good?” and one I wouldn’t gamble on in the top 5. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 70 Pow, 89 Mov Scouting File Rank: 18 Scouting File Score: 86.76 04. :bos2: 2B James Hoffman Should I sugarcoat this? No. I do not like this pick at all. Sure, he’ll have wonderful Contact and a great Eye. But he has no power, no speed, and no defense. There’s no doubt that he could be a .300 AVG, .375 OBP guy, but without Power or Speed he’s Marc Ramming (There’s an old FCM reference for ya)! He’ll simply be stuck on base without the ability to score. Slap hitters need to do something else (Speed or Defense) or they’re basically the guys you start when you have no good options. Grade: Future Skills: 96 Con, 66 Pow, 98 Eye Scouting File Rank: 14 Scouting File Score: 87.90 05. :min2: RP Pete Miller Can we re-name him “Pete Mitchell”? I like the guy, but I still think it’s a bit early to take him. His Movement should be out of this world, but his Control will never catch up, so he needs to stay as a reliever. We really haven’t seen RP builds like him. RPs either look like sure-fire convert candidates or look so mediocre that you don’t even dare think they could one day be a Closer. I also think his Endurance could quietly be big blessing. If he ever gets into a jam while closing a game out, he won’t get tired like the low 20’s Endurance RPs would at 25-30 pitches. Grade: Future Skills: 81 Con, 74 Pow, 99 Mov Scouting File Rank: 4 Scouting File Score: 91.77 06. :tex2: DH Jeff Watson He may be the most interesting prospect in the draft. Can he play defense? He’ll have solid Range and decent Speed, but he has no Arm, and his Glovework is hideous. One thing is for sure, he has massive Power potential. With some of the guys picked above him, I think he might be a mini-steal. You don’t normally invest a lot into a DH, but when you get a guy that could hit around .270, hit 35+ HRs, and walk to a solid clip, that could be a .900+ OPS and it’s hard to pass that up even if he’ll never play the field. Grade: Future Skills: 81 Con, 95 Pow, 84 Eye Scouting File Rank: 20 Scouting File Score: 86.59 07. 1B Timmy Smith As I said pre-draft, this guy has already jumped and either falls to 87, 86, 85, or 81 Peak – which would basically say whether he peaks at 25, 24 (86 or 85 Peak), or next January at 23. It’s true a Winterball could help propel him to greatness, but I don’t think you make picks with that in need since 1) it’s no guarantee and 2) you can do that with any pick and make them great. Seeing how much both his Overall and Peak jumped, I think there’s a very real possibility that he’s already cooked and the Scouting Score is wrong in thinking that he actually has upside. If it’s right, he’s not a bad player then, but still not what you want in the top 10. Grade: Future Skills: 82 Con, 86 Pow, 95 Eye Scouting File Rank: 25 Scouting File Score: 85.46 08. :nyy2: SP Kevin Shorter I know I was a little concerned with his HRs, but I really like the initial build. Maybe others were scared off by his upcoming birthday, but I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, and I’ll keep saying it in the future – It’s not the upcoming birthday that should concern you, it’s the one in his peak year that should concern year. We’ll assume it’s his age 25 season for arguments sake, so all Shorter has to do is have a jump in 2061 before June 23 and it’s the same as if he birthday wasn’t until November. If he gets his HRs worked out, he should be good and he has a chance to be dominant since all his skills should peak around the same level and make him truly balanced. Grade: Future Skills: 85 Con, 88 Pow, 89 Mov Scouting File Rank: 1 Scouting File Score: 93.28 09. :cin2: 1B Jim Hudson I really want to like this pick. He reminds me of Josh Corrigan, but with actual HR power. Both will never have a great Overall since Mogul weights Power very heavily in the ratings for 1B, but they are still very good. The problem is that Hudson already jumped, which makes him look like a 71/84 age 22 prospect and even if Mogul is slighting his Overall, there’s probably not enough time for him to be really great. Grade: Future Skills: 89 Con, 81 Pow, 81 Eye Scouting File Rank: 44 Scouting File Score: 83.04 10. :col2: SP James Baucom I had him as my best pitcher. I really like the initial build and the reason that I slightly like him over Wilson is that we’ve already seen Baucom age and he barely dropped. So, I would be highly surprised if Baucom peaks before 25 and I don’t think it’s out of the realm that he doesn’t peak until 26 or 27. I think the chance for him to develop into the 90’s is very good. With Wilson, he looks better right now and projects a little better if he has a standard 3 or 4 Peak drop when he ages. But if Wilson has those 5 or 6 Peak drops and Baucom looks better. Regardless of that debate, Baucom should be pretty good and him falling out of the top 5 is a shocker. Grade: Future Skills: 86 Con, 71 Pow, 88 Eye Scouting File Rank: 12 Scouting File Score: 88.54 11. :nym2: SP Burt Daughtery I really like this guy and feel he’s pretty underrated. For starters, his vitals will increase a bit as his Endurance continues to climb into the low 70’s, so that’s already a little extra bonus. At just 17, it’s hard to say where his true ceiling is, but it’s unfair to cap him at the 86 Peak he currently shows. The sky is really the limit for him and with the HRs, repertoire, initial build (especially the control), it speaks to a guy just waiting to become great. Plus his first name is badass and bold. Grade: Future Skills: 86 Con, 71 Pow, 88 Mov Scouting File Rank: 8 Scouting File Score: 88.84 12. :stl2: SP Adam Twistleton I usually don’t get too concerned with high Endurance or high Health, since there is value in either being very good. However, as in this case, when it’s both, it’s very concerning that it just drains the true upside a player has. Then when you consider he has some big home run issues and I don’t think he should’ve gone any earlier than the mid 20’s. He does have a decent opening build and should have a dominant Fastball, but I wonder if he’s anything more than an innings eater Grade: Future Skills: 82 Con, 83 Pow, 91 Mov Scouting File Rank: 2 Scouting File Score: 93.05 13. :hou3: SP Eduardo Gonzalez I’ll take to my draft note on him, “ People will love him (with that Control), but will struggle since he'll always lack Movement.” As I’ve said in the past, when Control is that much higher than Movement, it suggests Movement won’t develop quite on the normal path and always lag too far behind control. He’ll still be solid, but I think he’ll be like James Allen in the sense that he’ll always look better than how he’ll actually perform and get beat up. Grade: Future Skills: 89 Con, 82 Pow, 82 Mov Scouting File Rank: 15 Scouting File Score: 87.80 14. :chw2: SP Pat Metz Once again, what a dumbass JHC was. Ok, actually I like the pick. A lot. Despite the low GB%, HRs don’t look to be a problem and I love the opening build. His Control is good and he has the strikeout ability to not always have to rely on the defense behind him. Plus he should have some very good breaking pitches. Grade: Future Skills: 83 Con, 88 Pow, 87 Mov Scouting File Rank: 10 Scouting File Score: 88.78 15. :phi2: C Marquitz Urquijo I’m really wondering how he fell this low. People often complain at the catcher talent in drafts and after his jump, he was clearly the best catching prospect in the draft. Now sure, he already jumped, so you can’t believe that 92 Peak, but we also already saw him age and he only dropped 1 Peak! I don’t expect him to only drop 1 Peak going forward, but he should stay in that minimal 2-3 Peak drop range and have plenty of time to develop. This guy will be a future All-Star. Grade: Future Skills: 83Con, 86 Pow, 88 Eye Scouting File Rank: 9 Scouting File Score: 88.83 16. :col2: SP Glen Ashbaugh His Control is a little concerning, but his HS stats, vitals to his overall, and pitches are nice. He might need some luck getting that Control to appropriate levels, but regardless, he’s rotation material and good value at this spot with him being so young. Just a matter of how good he’ll be. Grade: Future Skills: 77 Con, 79 Pow, 86 Mov Scouting File Rank: 37 Scouting File Score: 83.83 17. :sfg2: LF Matt Desforges I’m not sure this guy was worth trading up for, but he’s not bad either. Despite already turning 22, he has enough upside that you shouldn’t worry about him peaking out early – there’s even a chance he doesn’t peak until 26. I’m just not sold on him. He should have a solid bat, I just have a hard time trusting him in the field (though I did list him as a LF). His Range is so poor that I’m not sure his good Arm makes up for it. Again, I like him, it’s just a feeling of if he can’t play the field, then there were better DHs on the board. Grade: Future Skills: 89 Con, 84 Pow, 85 Eye Scouting File Rank: 26 Scouting File Score: 85.17 18. :pit2: RF Arnold McPhillip I like the Arm and Power potential, but he’s already jumped and I think his current Peak makes him look more valuable than he really is. He’s probably more of an 84 or 85 peak value and likely peaks out before 25, so there’s not much time for him to improve. I think he winds up a “startable” guy rather than someone you strive to have in your lineup. Grade: Future Skills: 75 Con, 88 Pow, 81 Eye Scouting File Rank: 31 Scouting File Score: 84.46 19. :sdp2: SP Mario Coss He doesn’t look bad, but he’s already jumped and he’s a bit older. I think the projections on him are about accurate. He’ll have solid Movement with near-80 Control. He’ll be that guy the bounces around from rotation to bullpen and never has a set role. Plus seeing how Decker now wants to trade pitching prospects from positional ones, it makes me wonder why he didn’t get a position player here . Grade: Future Skills: 78 Con, 76 Pow, 85 Mov Scouting File Rank: 57 Scouting File Score: 81.86 20. :chc2: 1B Jeff Verhulst This was a savvy move by Jason – trading down and still getting your guy. He’s risky with that low Contact, but if he gets to 90+, then he should be very good. He should develop good Power and walk a ton! Even though 1B isn’t a major concern defensively, not many have 80+ Range like he’ll have and are worth starting. Grade: Future Skills: 76 Con, 95 Pow, 93 Eye Scouting File Rank: 11 Scouting File Score: 88.78 21. LF Terry Moffitt He’s a lot like Desforges. He has better Range, but his Arm and Fielding make him a borderline candidate to play the field. His Power too, will eventually drop behind his Contact, not making him an idle DH. Still not a bad hitter to get at this point, and bonus points for switch hitting ability. Grade: Future Skills: 87 Con, 81 Pow, 87 Eye Scouting File Rank: 38 Scouting File Score: 83.65 22. DH Chris Stripling Unless he gets lucky and Mogul suddenly gives him an Arm (which does happen here and there), he’s going to have to DH. He has some rougher splits and they don’t like all that inspiring vs RHP. He should knock the crap out of LHP, but that’s a platoon in the wrong direction and a crummy (likely) auto pick for the Rays. Grade: Future Skills: 74 Con, 91 Pow, 88 Eye Scouting File Rank: 48 Scouting File Score: 82.54 23. :bos2: DH/RF Neil Beach Despite his low Fielding, his Glovework suggest he could play the field. He’ll have a solid arm, but the Range is still a question. You can probably find better fielding options, but he would be tolerable since he has an arm. Offensively his Eye is great and could be an even more balanced DH than Jeff Watson. I understand people not wanting to put a lot of stock in DHs since defense is important in Mogul, but when you could be getting an .850+ OPS contributor, so what? As long as you have strong defense up the middle, you may be able to bash your way to wins even if you have DH types starting in the field on the corners. Just acquire talent and let the rest figure itself out. Grade: Future Skills: 88 Con, 85 Pow, 96 Eye Scouting File Rank: 16 Scouting File Score: 87.80 24. :oak2: RP Efrain Moreno Quietly one of the “how did he fall?” and for myself (not that it mattered), but I think I ranked him too low. With coming to the realization that you must leave him as a reliever, you understand you have a guy that should have elite Movement and should have 2 very good, if not elite pitches. He’s a lesser version of Peter Miller, but should contribute earlier. Grade: Future Skills: 78 Con, 75 Pow, 98 Mov Scouting File Rank: 6 Scouting File Score: 89.36 25. :laa2: SP Garrett Tolbert He’s a guy that I was hoping would fall to me at #49. He’s like Pat Metz with the build. Good Movement with good Power that should turn into a very balanced build. He too, has a chance to be elite if things go well. Tolbert was good in Major League so naturally, this Tolbert will be good too. Grade: Future Skills: 83 Con, 83 Pow, 83 Mov Scouting File Rank: 19 Scouting File Score: 86.67 26. :was2: DH Brian Wood If his Range were better, I think you could tolerate him in the OF. But he’s what I just preached with Boston’s pick of Neil Beach. Just acquire talent and if you happen to have to start him, so be it. It’s not at a premium position and he could hit his way out of making you care about his defensive inadequacies. His splits are very kind and a real nice starting build that should definitely provide all 85+ vitals. Grade: Future Skills: 88 Con, 88 Pow, 87 Eye Scouting File Rank: 22 Scouting File Score: 86.18 27. :kcr2: SP Luke Mawdesley Has some concerning Control issues with his Movement already being a good bit higher, and does have a little HR concerns. But is just 16 and looks like he could have a dominant Cutter and it’s possible the Circle Change stays above his Overall as well. I tend to think he’ll have to become a reliever, but for now it’s worth seeing if the Control gets on track and he can start. Grade: Future Skills: 76 Con, 79 Pow, 93 Mov Scouting File Rank: 28 Scouting File Score: 85.08 28. :chw2: SP Dustin Archer He’s not terrible, but he just doesn’t do much for me. He should have a very good Curve, but his other pitches will eventually fall behind his Overall. The Control is a little concerning and the HRs are all over the place, so he’s a real wildcard. Plus it wouldn’t be a draft review if I didn’t rip one of JHC’s picks. Grade: Future Skills: 79 Con, 83 Pow, 86 Mov Scouting File Rank: 24 Scouting File Score: 85.72 29. :cin2: SP Mike Cassedy There were still some pitchers that I liked better available here, but Cassedy is still good people. Plus he was a “green guy”. I thought he was 2nd round material, but he was highlighted, so I can see why you go after him. His Fastball should be dominant, the HRs are in check, and his build is quite solid for a 57. Grade: Future Skills: 83 Con, 74 Pow, 86 Mov Scouting File Rank: 26 Scouting File Score: 85.16 30. :sea2: SP Peter Hill When this pick was made, I really wondered if Mike was purposely trolling Seattle. Hill has solid vitals and should have a couple of real good pitches, but his home runs are crazy high and it doesn’t look like a stat glitch either. If it weren’t for the crazy high HRs, I’d like him, but I just don’t see him being anything reliable and really just a waste of a pick. Grade: Future Skills: 81 Con, 79 Pow, 87 Mov Scouting File Rank: 5 Scouting File Score: 89.71 31. :stl2: SP Keith Kilby His HRs weren’t an issue until his senior year and while he’ll only have 1 real good pitch, the other 3 should all be solid. His build is good and I think better than the last 4 pitchers taken. Grade: Future Skills: 80 Con, 81 Pow, 85 Mov Scouting File Rank: 17 Scouting File Score: 87.54 32. :stl2: LF/CF Terry Davenport Not a bad player, but it doesn’t seem like his ceiling is very high. He should have good Contact to go along with a good Eye and defense, but with average Speed and Power, I think he falls into the friend-zone of Mogul and just being “startable”. Grade: Future Skills: 84 Con, 79 Pow, 85 Eye Scouting File Rank: 21 Scouting File Score: 86.26 33. :sea2: SP Ric Zimmerman I’m not much of a fan of this pick. His build isn’t inspiring for his age and I doubt there’s much time to grow. His pitches are very bland and he could have some HR issues. There were simply better options with higher upside than him. Grade: Future Skills: 78 Con, 78 Pow, 83 Mov Scouting File Rank: 47 Scouting File Score: 82.59 RE: 2056 Nokes Draft Grades - mattynokes - 07-20-2015 All done RE: 2056 Nokes Draft Grades - cadmus2166 - 07-23-2015 I couldn't believe Baucom was still there for me at pick 10!! It made that pick an easy one.