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2048 Draft Analysis - hokeyrules - 08-25-2014
I am using the Post Draft File for this.
1. :CIN: Select SP Tony Norris
Tony Norris looks like a real stud, and I thought the best player in the draft. He kind of looks like a Maclewis type player, who I think Cincinatti will be quite happy with. He has yet to jump at the draft, and when he does he could be one hell of a player. He is also only 19, and already 72 overall, which can be a good sign. His high school numbers look good as well, and does not seem to give up a ton of home runs. The one issue with him is he is a lefty, which is not always the best thing, but time will tell whether he remains the best pitcher in the draft.
Rating: A+
2. :DET: Select SP Carlo Bongard
I think Carlo Bongard is a big risk. I also think there are two other pitchers who will most likely be better in the long term, unless Bongard is able to somehow not give up a ton of home runs. His high school statistics show he gives up a ton of homers, and does not have a high GB% to begin with. His E.R.A. also would have been super high without all the unearned runs. He does have the high power which shows he could be an ace, and with control above his overall, he does still have the chance to be a great star, I just do not think he will with those home runs. He does already have a great fastball though. The next jump he has should determine a lot on him.
Rating: B-
3. :SFG: Select SP Tony Beard
Love the name, but I am really curious how he ends up being. Looking at his last high school season he had 13 unearned runs against him, which is a ton, so is he not clutch or something? Either way he does not give up a ton of home runs which is really great. He also only has 3 pitches, with one being great, and to me, I think he would be a much better closer than starter. His control is above his overall, so it should be interesting to see whether it will continue to rise or whether his movement just goes nuts like a lot of pitchers. He is also a lefty, so I feel like this is riskier than Bongard. I feel like the next jump on him should determine a lot in terms of his vitals and how he will be.
Rating: C+
4. :SFG: Select 3B Ryan Travis
Ryan Travis reminds me a lot of my own player in Sebastien Musgrove. Great defense, lower eye, and good contact and power, however his contact is the same as his overall, and the splits are really bad. So if he does hit the 91 contact, his contact against righties will likely be below 90 against righties, which does not make him as strong as a selection as San Francisco might have wanted. However, he had his birthday, and has not jumped so if he gets a big jump in peak, then maybe he stands a much better chance at being a future all-star third baseman. His high school statistics are also fairly good, with just a lower amount of walks, but really his contact seems strong there.
Rating: A
5. :SFG: Select OF Eric Thomas
Eric Thomas looks like he could be a pretty decent DH, but likely not in the outfield. He has a great arm, he just apparently cannot move to the ball or field it. He is going to have some pretty good power, and a decent eye, although his contact may not reach his overall by the time he peaks. The good thing is he is a lefty, and his splits really show he will hit righties well. He has yet to jump this season, which makes him also look fairly good. His OPS does look a little low in high school, but there was some good power, and some average contact which should be good.
Rating: B+
6. :SDP: Select SP Roger Danbury
I think Danbury was the second best pitcher in the draft. As of the draft he had not jumped yet, but his control is 10 above his overall, and should easily hit into the 90s if he gets to his current peak of 87. He does give up quite a bit of fly balls, but not a ton of home runs, and that is a good sign with his high school numbers. Obviously him being a righty is a great sign, and in a pitchers park in San Diego, I think Decker will be quite happy.
Rating: A+
7. :OAK: Select 1B Daryl Szubinski
Of course Andy makes a good pick with his pick at 7. Szubinski looks like the real deal, especially if he decides to WB him. He has yet to jump, and he has an amazing eye, and power. He cannot hit lefties, but that is okay since most of the pitchers that are relied on in big games are righties. The one downside is his health, but he can field really well. He also has some of the best high school numbers I can ever recall. Either way Andy did it again.
Rating: A+
8. :OAK: Select 2B Bart Ahearn
He looks like he could be a really good 2B or SS, and that is a hard thing to find in this league. Obviously a lower peak than most of the people available, but definitely better than most as well. Him and Craig White are going to make the infield a very secure position for Andy, kind of like Toronto way back in the day. His splits are very close, and his contact although is a little below his overall, is still fairly close, and he has speed, and a really good eye. I think Oakland will be quite happy with this pick.
Rating: A+
9. :SFG: Select SP Chris Eckles
I really like Eckles, but this is the second left handed pitcher that San Francisco picked, and both times with a better right handed pitcher left. Either way, I think Eckles should be a decent pitcher, but I doubt he becomes anything more than a 3-4 SP. He still has to jump during the year, and if for some reason he does not, with his early birthday, that will not be good. He does get batters to ground the ball 50% of the time so that is a benefit, and because of this a lot of the time the ball stays in the park. Still a decent pick, just not a top 10 pick in my eyes.
Rating: B-
10. :CHW: Select OF Miguel Tito
This is one of those nice times I do not have to bash Chicago. I do like Tito more than most of his previous picks, although he will be a DH only. He has very good power, and an amazing eye. The big concern is his eye and splits. Due to him being a righty, and most of the good pitchers being righties, he needs to hope he reaches his peak of 95 in order to likely get that 90 contact, although his power should have no issue being there. He will still be very good in my opinion, but if he gets that extra contact, I could see him potentially being a regular all-star. His college and high school stats also show great power, and relatively good contact except for one season.
Rating: A-
11. :SFG: Select SP Carlos Monarco
First real player I can honestly say I do not like in the draft. Overall has had great high school numbers, and has yet to jump which is usually two important things for me when I look at pitchers. However, looking at his vitals, his control is below his overall, and his movement is already really high, so I expect him to have a crazy high movement, and average to decent control, even if it’s around 80-85, by no means is that a pitcher you want at 11.
Rating: C-
12. :DET: Select SP Jonah Smith
I think Jonah Smith is a better pitcher than the last two pitchers taken, although he needs a jump to make sure of that. His control is 12 above his overall, and even his power is 9 above. However, the one issue he has is the home runs against him. He also already has a great fastball, and that should be quite helpful for him to grow as a pitcher. Regardless I like him, but I think with his lower peak, he is still a bit of a risk.
Rating: A
13. :PIT: Select 2B Elvis Aspuria
I think Aspuria is a decent player, but he does not seem to have any one strength. He does not field considerably well, his eye is likely going to be average, he has average speed, contact should be average, and his contact which is his best attribute is just barely above his overall. The splits make him look very good against righties, but still not a stand out player on a team. Overall, I think he will end up being a decent enough starter, but probably easy to replace at some point. He has yet to jump, so this could change a lot if he gets a good jump, and he is only 17, so there are some possibilities that make him intriguing. His high school numbers also were either good or bad, nothing in between.
Rating: B
14. :HOU: Select 3B Danny Bushnell
I think Danny Bushnell will be an interesting 3B. He has solid defense, but not amazing, but he has such a great eye. His contact is a little under his overall, and his power is just above, but he looks to be a threat. One issue is his splits, which may make him less of a threat against righties as it is a huge blow in both contact and power. The good news is he also has yet to jump, so Houston could be happy if he turns out to have solid enough offensive numbers with some solid defense. He did walk a ton in high school as well so that should also help.
Rating: B
15. :MIN: Select SP Leon Cortes
Leon Cortes looks decent, but his control is just barely above his overall, and for him to be good, he will need that control to keep moving. His high school numbers were not that great which worries me, and he seems to give up a lot of home runs, which is also an issue. He is however 17, and has yet to jump, and so clearly Minnesota is taking a chance that Cortes may continue to progress to his peak and then be decent enough to play. Just he reminds me a lot of some of the other pitchers Minnesota has picked in the past that flopped.
Rating: C
16. :COL: Select OF Lyle Woodcock
I think Woodcock was one of the worst picks of the first round. He has no contact, a bad eye, low health, but mammoth power. That might be great in Colorado, but if he cannot make contact, than the power is not going to be that useful. If he does make it as a starter in the future I could easily see him hitting 50 home runs as his power is already 90 against righties, but he is going to do that with hitting terribly, and to me that is just not worth it, especially when his defense is average anyways. His high school numbers show great power, and contact seems to be all over the place. The good news is he is a lefty hitter, but he also has already jumped, and may be more of a guy around 87 or so peak instead of the 93 he is currently at.
Rating: D
17. :TBR: Select RP Nort Baldwin
Normally I would like Nort Baldwin, but the one thing that scares me is he dropped from being 67/86 to 64/84 and his control is also a little low for me. He does, however, have great high school and college numbers, and throws a ton of ground balls. If he does not jump then he will be destined for nothing more than a AAA reliever, which to me is a big risk for Tampa Bay, and because of this I think Steal Third should have gone with some of the other pitchers over this one.
Rating: D
18. :SFG: Select SP Zack Hynes
Zack Hynes looks like a pretty good pitcher in my books, and a better pick than at spot 11 for San Francisco. His numbers in high school were fairly good, although there were some discrepancies in unearned runs vs earned runs, but he throws more pitches for ground balls, than fly balls which is always a good thing. However, when you look at that, he gave up a lot of homers for a ground ball pitcher. His control is above his overall, but not that much above his movement, so it should be interesting to see how that plays out. Either way a decent pick up for San Francisco, and I like how he has the 4 pitches a starter should have.
Rating: B-
19. :KCR: Select SP Manuel Santillan
Santillan was one of the better pitchers remaining, and better than the two taken previous to him. I love that his control is much higher than his movement and overall. The one issue might be his health, but as Prime Time Gio has told us, health is not everything. Santillan is young at 17, and does not give up a ton of home runs which is very good for a pitcher. He also has not jumped, and so we all know Mike will be hoping that happens and that he gets a good pitcher out of this draft.
Rating: B+
20. :SFG: Select OF Brandon Hertz
I think Brandon Hertz will be a good player, and to me is a similar pick to the one I made with Gray. The one big difference is that Gray fields, but is injury prone, while Hertz is the opposite, and health is always a plus, and his defense is average. One issue that might be with his eye, as it is a little low, and his contact is lower than his overall. As well, his splits are worse than Gray’s so that might also make him a little bit worse, but either every team needs one player with speed and contact, and Hertz could very well be a big part of San Francisco in the future.
Rating: B
21. :SFG: Select 1B Bryan Craven
Bryan Craven is a decent looking first baseman, but in my opinion not as good as Keene. He will have much better contact than Keene, so will likely hit for a better average, but his eye is not that great. A switch hitting 1B is always a good thing though, and so San Francisco could still get a good batter, who can also field. He also does not look to have the same power as Keene will have, which is usually what the first base position is noted for. Statistically speaking his OPS, batting average, and power is also not that great in high school, so it will be interesting to see if that relates to how he does. However, he still can jump, which is something good.
Rating: C
22. :KCR: Select SP Neil Sinnott
I do not like Sinnott much at all, as the only time he had a low E.R.A, was due to the fact of 27 unearned runs. He keeps the ball in the park which is a bonus, but his control is below his overall, and even below movement, I just do not think he will make the big leagues. As well, he dropped from 67/90 to 65/90 so I think that will hurt him in the long run, and may have already jumped or may not jump due to the drop. Either way, definitely not as good as Mike’s previous pick.
Rating: C-
23. :CLE: Select SP Zeke Shaw
I do like Zeke Shaw, I just wonder if he is a big risk due to his low peak. He had great numbers in high school, and kept the ball in the park well even though he gives up a ton of fly balls. He already has a great fastball, but the few negatives are he is a lefty, and upside of 15 is scary. He could still jump, and then if he drops only a little than that would be okay, but it really depends what happens the rest of the year to determine whether he will be decent or a flop.
Rating: B-
24. :BAL: Select 1B Austin Keene
His eye is better than Craven’s and he is younger, but he is not a great fielder, and has poor contact. However, his numbers in high school were quite good in terms of power, and even his contact was fairly decent in high school. He is a lefty bat which is a bonus, and has time to jump, and he walks a ton. If he jumps, I think San Francisco will regret not picking him up.
Rating: B+
25. :WAS: Select OF Jamie Dickie
I think Washington did the right thing taking Dickie with this pick. He is a righty and his splits heavily favour against lefties, but he has a cannon of an arm, an average eye, and some very solid power. He has yet to jump, and his high school numbers show he hit for contact, power and walked, which are all very good a person picked in the last 10 picks of the draft. The one weakness in the majors might be his contact though, so it will be interesting to see how that unfolds.
Rating: B
26. :SEA: Select SP Phil Therrien
I think Therrien is a pretty decent pitcher, who definitely improved in his last two years over his first two in high school. He has yet to jump, which is good, and his control is just a little over his overall, but I do think he will be a decent pitcher who could pitch anywhere from 3-5. He also seems to be better at home runs, but that may have just been one season where he did not give up a ton, so it should be interesting to see what happens. He is definitely better than Fiske who was taken later, although I do like Kelley a bit more. Either way he has plenty of time to improve.
Rating: B-
27. :SEA: Select OF Tomas Candelara
Tomas Candelara looks like a real good OF, and Seattle I think got a steal this late. At 16 he already has a pretty good eye, his contact and power are both above his overall, he is a lefty and although he may never hit lefties great that is okay. His arm is strong and he has good range, although fielding is not his best attribute. His health is good, and he can still jump this year, all together I feel like even this late he is still better than Dickie, or Hertz and especially Woodcock. His statistics do show he has some good average and power, which just makes me think he could be a real good piece with a couple good jumps and good winterball.
Rating: A
28. :DET: Select RP Troy Kelley
I like Kelley a bit more than Therrien, but that is just preference because he is a lower overall and has the same control as Therrien. Statistically in high school he was all over the place, and he does not give that many home runs. I think he would be a decent pitcher to eventually make into a starting pitcher versus the reliever that he is now. His ground ball% is high which is good, and he has a lot of opportunity to improve, and can still jump this season. I think Detroit will be happy with getting Kelley at this selection.
Rating: B
29. :TOR: Select SP Josh Fiske
When I look at Josh Fiske, all I see is a dud. He will never be a starter for a good team, and his statistics show that when you see how bad he has pitched, and those numbers are so bad even with the one year where he had 20 unearned runs and still had an E.R.A. of 6. His control is well below his overall, and his movement is also below, everything about him shows he is terrible. This is close to the worst pick of the draft.
Rating: D
30. :STL: Select OF Martin Dollard
GD does it again and gets a solid looking player with the last pick in the first round. Although Dollard does not have an arm, his fielding is above average, his contact is above his overall, and he has an average eye. He probably would have been happier if he had more speed, but then again if he had more speed he would have been taken earlier. His high school and college stats show he can hit the ball fairly well, and has some power, but not a lot. Overall he should have a chance to be a decent future OF, maybe not in St. Louis, but he could be a decent part of a team. Not to mention he can still jump.
Rating: B+
RE: 2048 Draft Analysis - Steal Third - 08-26-2014
All is right with the world again. After a few drafts of actually LIKING my picks, Hokey has reverted to form. In this case, he may be right.....I guess I just got caught up with Baldwin's stats...5.36 K/BB ratio and 1.03 WHIP - these were among the best in the draft class.
RE: 2048 Draft Analysis - 'PR' - 08-27-2014
That high in the draft, I don't see how one could justify taking Smith or Santillan at 11 over Monarca's upside and talent. Also, with all the flack you give left handed pitching, The best pitcher in the draft is a lefty, and most of the lefties taken have a 95MPH heater or stronger. I do think if lefties are going to succeed, they either need at least 50% GB ratio with at least a 95 mph fastball or 96mph+ with at least 30-40% GB. I just don't think passing up on that upside and talent over looking for a right handed guy is exactly smart that high in the draft, especially when the talent is there. Zeke Shaw out of Cleveland will be a great tool to observe with that respect. I do respect the analysis though, and I'm interested in the fact that you don't think Brandon Hertz was a bad pick at that point in the draft while most people do.
RE: 2048 Draft Analysis - mattynokes - 08-27-2014
Actually Smith and Santillan have more upside than Monarca. Upside = Peak - Overall. Looking at Monarca, I think many people question whether he'll get to 80 control and see him as being overrated. He has a nice peak, but honestly has limited upside and room to grow.
Velocty is purely cosmetic. There's nothing in the predicted stats that is effected by increasing or decreasing it. With that said, there does seem to be a correlation between Power and Velocity. Low Power arms tend to have lower velocities, while high Power arms tend to be the opposite.
To an extent, GB% is cosmetic. Like velocity, there's nothing in the predicted stats that's effected by increasing or decreasing it. The value of GB% comes in playing to your team's strengths in realizing if your team is more suited for groundball or flyball outs. But, if everything is equal, a 60% GB pitcher will have as much success as a 20% GB pitcher.
For the Baldwin pick, let's think back to Kyle Arrington. On draft day he was:
Ovr: 65
Con: 63
Pwr: 56
Mov: 60
Pitches: 54, 59, 59
Converting Arrington to SP definitely helped power, movement, and his repertoire. But control was still below his overall. With RPs, you can see some crazy development paths.
RE: 2048 Draft Analysis - 'PR' - 08-27-2014
Well I didn't phrase it correctly, but my use of MPH was to convey his velocity quality. I'm pretty sure a power guy with a 98 MPH is better than a power guy with 89 MPH on the fastball.