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2046 Draft Analysis - hokeyrules - 05-28-2014
1. :MIN: Selects SP Barry Taplin
I think Minnesota drafted a decent SP prospect, but I do not think he was a number 1 overall player. He has solid vitals which are above or even to his overall, and he has some good, but not amazing stats in high school. The one big flaw for him, is the fact he jumped already and started the year at 90 peak, as well, even with his stats, his dice, was not that great. With his low control, he may never be an ace, but he could be a solid number 2 or 3 pitcher for the Twins.
Rating: B
2. :ATL: Selects OF Chris Grosso
Stang knocks a home run out of the park with Grosso. I absolutely love Grosso, and think he could easily be the best OF in this draft. Contact, Power, Eye all above his overall, his splits are not that bad, and except for his last year in high school, the rest of the numbers are good. The one negative is his defense, but he should be decent enough to play LF and obviously DH. Overall, I think this was a great selection, and even if he does not jump this year, at 17, there is only one way he can go and that is up.
Rating: A+
3. :TBR: Selects SP Hiram Delgado
I think Tampa Bay made a very good selection with Delgado with the third pick. I think he has a pretty decent shot at being one of the best pitchers in this draft. One negative thing about him is the fact that he dropped one overall and that looks like it was just from his movement, and sometimes mogul reads drops as a “jump” in the sense that they only get a drop or jump once, so if he does not jump, then that may hurt how early he went. Overall I think he is one of the top three pitchers in this draft.
Rating: A-
4. :MIL: Selects OF Pierre Lyon
Well as you will see with most OF’s picked in the first round, another pick that I think will turn out really good. I think the type of player that Lyon will turn into is something similar to Werth on the Angels, except with lower contact, which to me is his biggest flaw. Overall he should have a great eye, and power, and his defense is pretty good as well outside of his speed/range. Looking at his high school numbers definitely shows that the contact is something to worry about a little.
Rating: A
5. :LAA: Selects 1B John Wallace
Maybe Chris passing on Bailey a few years ago, and people talking about how I ended up with Bailey at pick 8, led him to take a Lefty 1B early on. Which means he learned from the past and got a pretty good pick because of it. Of the first basemen selected, I think he is the best one, but I see him more as a Golia type player, and one flaw being his contact. He also has jumped so his true peak is not 93, but he looks pretty solid. One of the things I love most about him is his eye and that his power is the same, I think there is a pretty safe bet that both eye and power reach 90 overall, and if he can get his contact to 75 then maybe he can get into the HOF. His high school and college stats show he hits the ball, even if his average is not so great.
Rating: A+
6. :SDP: Selects OF Jamorian Williams
I liked Decker’s pick here of Williams, and I think he was a safe pick of being good, but I do not think he has the same potential as some of the other OF’s. His contact is above his overall, and his speed is decent, and eye amazing. He has good fielding, but he will never be a home run threat, and he is a switch hitter with similar splits, which makes him quite good. He also has not jumped, but his peak is lower than at the start of the year, so it will be interesting if he can overcome that and get a jump, if he does, Decker will be quite happy with him, if not he could end up following in the footsteps of other players who have good vitals but lower overalls.
Rating: B
7. :OAK: Selects SP Joel Abell
Normally I hate on players with lower control than movement, but I am not going to this time. Reasoning, his control is just below his overall, his health is low, which means he will likely have all numbers above his overall in his pitching, and his high school stats are amazing. Once again one flaw is his overall dipped slightly, although he did have his birthday, so I am not sure if that is connected or not, but overall with Andy making the pick you give him the benefit of the doubt. I still think that his movement will be the highest category of his pitching vitals, but it may not be as detrimental as some, or I could be totally wrong, either way I like this pick even with 68 health, because players like Gio Villareda have proven me wrong before that low health is not always good. Although I just want to throw out it should be interesting to see whether he will be a home run threat with throwing over 1 home run a game in terms of innings pitched.
Rating: A
8. :ATL: Selects 1B Ron Austin
I am not as fond of this pick as the 1B taken three picks later. Mainly because his eye is average, his contact is super low, and he can’t field. I picture him like a Curtis Wine type player, which is great, but not a type of player you want to build your team around. He has yet to jump and he can prove me wrong, but I prefer Meech to him. That being said he could easily hit 35-40 home runs, and with the young talent Atlanta has this could be good. His high school stats show he is a slugger, although I think his average is inflated in high school by a lot.
Rating: C+
9. :CIN: Selects SP Todd McFadden
I think McFadden will be a very solid number 2 or 3 starter, if things go right, but do not see him ever being a top end pitcher. Which makes me think Cincinnati reached on him. Surprisingly I do not dislike him for the way his vitals are, even though his control is a bit lower, they are fairly close and so he should still get decent control and semi low power. The real reason I dislike him is he was 75/90 at the beginning of the season, is now 70/88, and has a birthday coming up still. Which tells me if he does not jump, for the same reasons I have stated earlier about players who drop, and he has his birthday he hits maybe 85 peak, which to me is not a great pick at 9. With that being said, his high school and college numbers are pretty good, so he could still pitch well. Another bonus to him unlike the other early pitchers is that he does not look to give up a ton of long balls, which should be good for Cincinnati.
Rating: C
10. :BAL: Selects SP Ryan Watkins
I must say I like Ryan Watkins. He just turned 17 this year, he already had his birthday and barely dropped his peak, he still has a chance to jump and his control is above his overall, and his power is well above. I think he has the potential to be an ace, but one of the big downfalls to him is that his eye and endurance are extremely high which may inflate his overall. His high school stats are not that great either, but as Andy and others have pointed out this does not always mean that a player is not going to be good, but he is giving up a home run about every 10 innings which could be scary as well. Still I think with time Baltimore will be quite happy to get this pitcher with the 10th pick, and once WB and that is used on him he could be quite good.
Rating: B+
11. :ARI: Selects 1B Tim Meech
When I see Tim Meech, what I see is a Joe Scarth type player, or an Armando Rayna, both players I would want over a Curtis Wine type 1B. This is what Arizona got in Meech. His contact and eye are above his overall, and his power is equal and so if he ends up reaching his peak, he will be a major stud. You can tell even by his high school numbers he will have some pop and great contact. He has jumped already, but even then his peak is still around the 89-90 area and could get better as more years progress.
Rating: A
12. :FLA: Selects OF Tony Williams
Essentially here I will say why I chose him. His Contact and Power are above his overall already, his eye is well above, and even though he cannot play amazing defense, he should be at least decent in LF, or at worst a DH. His later high school numbers show he has some pop with his contact, and one of the best things about him was he has not jumped yet, and so if he can get a jump during the year I will be quite happy. I do not necessarily like his splits, but I thought he was the second best OF after Grosso.
13. :CHW: Selects SP Jeff Leeper
Vital wise I like this pick that Chicago selected. In terms of how he actually pitched in high school, I dislike that a bit. With his main pitching vitals all above his overall that is great, but you can tell that the control is going to be his lowest vital, and it will be interesting how it does progress. I think the best way to tell how good he will be is when he gets his first jump, and that could happen this year.
Rating: B
14. :SFG: Selects SS Mark McElrath
I think Mark McElrath will be a decent SS, but I do not think he will be good enough to be elite. The best thing about him is he has good defense, and speed, and his splits are good in terms of being able to hit righties. His contact and power are a little below his overall, which is sometimes not that great, but if he progresses well his splits will obviously make him better than his actual contact and power show. The thing that will be interesting is he did drop in peak and it was not his birthday, so will he look as good if he does not jump and just ages, no.
Rating: C+
15. :CIN: Selects SP Nelson Barroca
I love Barroca. His control already looks quite good compared to his overall, and his movement will catch up. He will be a low power guy, but with high control and movement he should be a good number two pitcher in the majors. His high school and college numbers are very good, and overall I think Cincinnati will be happy with what I think he will become. He also has yet to jump this year and if he can jump he will look even better than some of the pitchers before him.
Rating: A+
16. :SEA: Selects RP Dave Marshall
I think this may have been one of the worst picks of the draft. He is truly the spitting image of everything I hate about pitchers normally, and that is the huge difference between movement and control. His control and power are well below the overall and overall I think Matty missed the boat on this pick. His stats in terms of era and dice are pretty bad too for high school, but at least he does not give up that many home runs and has a chance to jump.
Rating: D-
17. :NYM: Selects SP Dave Coade
I like Coade more than Leeper and that is just due to the fact that his movement has more time to catch up with the rest of his vitals such as the control and power. His high school numbers also improved quite a bit and for 2/4 years are quite good. He also does not seem to give up a lot of home runs which is always good, and although I do not like that he has 69 health, that is not a major negative. He also has yet to jump, so this could make the Mets quite happy when/if he does.
Rating: B+
18. :PIT: Selects OF Carlo Temores
Overall I think Temores can be a good outfielder, but I still think there were better outfielders available. He is not really a CF, he will likely end up playing LF in his career, and the fact that all his vitals are above his overall is great. He is also a lefty and will really hit righties, although it looks like he will have a real hard time with lefty pitching. He also has a chance still to jump, and that makes him quite appetizing, and it is nice to see Pittsburgh restock some good future picks in this draft.
Rating: B+
19. :OAK: Selects OF Aaron Pfeifer
Pretty much if you put Pfeifer and Williams side by side the only difference is their peak. This means I really like this pick by Andy, although the one major difference between them is that Pfeifer is probably more DH material than LF. Pfeifer had even better high school numbers than Williams, and the more I see them even though Pfeifer is lower peak, there is no reason to hate on him at all. If he gets a good jump he could easily be just slightly less peak or even the same as Williams, and then you end up with a guy who I said was the second best OF in the draft, not bad at pick 19. The one thing to be careful is that it does look like he lost 1 peak, so whether he still gets a jump or not is the question this year.
Rating: A
20. :HOU: Selects OF Sean Russell
Do I think this was a terrible pick, no, was it a reach, yes. I now know why GB was trying to trade down so heavily to have a later 1st pick, because I do not think Russell should have been drafted at 20, but I still do like him. He has yet to jump, his contact and eye are above his overall and he can play centerfield. He is probably a better comp or 2nd round pick than first, but I still think GB could be happy with what he gets out of Russell. However, he needs to jump this year for Russell to be good I think, either way for a team that is rebuilding soon, I was a bit surprised to see GB got for an outlier pick, versus a pick that could be better in the long run.
Rating: B-
21. :WAS: Selects CA Marcus Aguilar
I think Peter made a good pick here if he needed catching, but there are many things about Aguilar that worry me. For me two of the most important aspects of the catcher are his arm, and handling. Aguilar has a great arm, but his handling is probably a little below average, but as we found out I may over rate the handling when you look at Northcutt catching for Oakland last year. His health scares me a bit, because I find catchers are the ones who get hurt the most frequently, and if he is low already, he may just end up like Kelly Guillot who was really good for 4-5 years, and then injuries caught up and since about 29, has not really done much at all. His power and eye look to be the big two vitals that he will mainly be about, and there is nothing wrong with that at catcher, as long as he will be able to hit some contact. Still quite a good pick for a team that originally had no pick in the draft.
Rating: B
22. :ATL: Selects SP Alberto Valdez
Alberto Valdez was one of the names I was hoping might drop to me, but instead he goes to someone in my division. Both his control and movement are above his overall, and he may be more similar to Barroca, who I also really liked, and Valdez also has a chance to jump this year which could make him quite a steal this late. His high school and college numbers overall are decent, but not amazing by any means, but I still think he has a chance to be quite a good 2-3 starter in the league.
Rating: A
23. :TBR: Selects 1B Ethan Mariani
I think Mariani can be a good 1B in the league, however, I am curious whether his contact actually will develop into a state where he will be really effective. His splits are also make him look right now like he will be a platoon player. His high school stats also are not very consistent, but I do not think his contact will be as low or as high as it shows. 1B with real low contact are always harder to see if he they will actually develop contact or whether they will keep real low contact and just develop power and eye, more, so I think if Mariani can get to 70 contact he should be decent, otherwise he might end up like a Joey Hughes.
Rating: C
24. :CLE: Selects OF Victor Oses
I thought Oses was potentially the third best OF in this draft, and even though he has low health, his defense is good, and maybe he could be something like an Aguilar. His contact, power and eye are all above his overall. His high school and college numbers show maybe his power will not be upper tier like Horacio, but I think if he becomes close to Aguilar, than Cleveland will be happy with this pick. My plan was to actually pick him with my next pick, but I could not let Cleveland pass up on this guy. He also has a chance to jump still this season, which makes him even more enticing.
25. :FLA: Selects OF Joe Gray
I picked him mainly because his contact is pretty high above his overall, he has a decent eye, and great speed. His fielding vitals also really look good, and really the scary things about him are his peak and health. He has yet to jump this year, and even though he has the low health, Travis Trimm on Toronto has never disappointed yet so I took a risk. This pick could end up backfiring if he gets an injury or does not jump, but I am hoping that does not happen.
26. :FLA: Selects 2B Randy Johnstone
Well I have one 2B who I drafted 5 years ago, and is starting to look like he may just never develop the way I was hoping. Johnstone already has more contact than my planned 2B, and so I am hoping his eye and contact continue to develop, and he has good defense already, that I was quite happy getting this guy. He did already jump, so I expect I am going to have to get lucky with WB in order for him to be very solid/quite good, but that is something I am willing to take a chance on.
27. :TOR: Selects SP Oliver Jaure
I think Jaure can be quite a solid player in the future. His control is well above his overall, and so is his power, he has a chance to become quite good if he can get the jumps that players need. He has yet to jump already, so that is a bonus for him, and his high school stats make him look like quite a good pick up this late in the draft. Cdawg is continuing where Andy left off in terms of rebuilding the team while competing, even if there have been some naysayers.
Rating: B+
28. :TOR: Selects SP Arnie Hoffman
As is the case with low overall pitchers it is hard to figure out if he will end up being really good or not, but I like that his movement is high. If he can get his control up to the 80s then I think he has a good chance to be a decent pitcher for Toronto. His high school stats are okay, although it looks like home runs may be an issue, but I think Toronto is just waiting to see what type of jump he gets, and it looks like he can still get one this year.
Rating: B
29. :KCR: Selects OF Scott Katz
I actually really like Katz, and I think with some time he can be decent. Obviously the main thing that is worrying is his contact and health. However, I really think he should be able to get his contact into the high 70’s maybe even 80, and since he will likely be playing DH, health may not be as big an issue as it could be for other positions. Another major downside was the fact that he had such a major jump in overall and peak, and when he has his birthday how will it look. Still Mike always takes risks, and this is another one that could pay off.
Rating: B-
30. :PHI: Selects OF Stu Bihar
Stu Bihar is a player that I just do not like but at 30, I can see why Philly would pick him. His contact and eye are below his overall, he does not field well, and he has low health. There is not much at all to like about him. Maybe he gets a jump and becomes decent, which is why I am assuming DLee picked him, but if he does not jump then he will end up being like Pedroso, a waste of a first round pick. Right now I am going more with the fact he will be wasted space.
Rating: D+
RE: 2046 Draft Analysis - mattynokes - 05-28-2014
So, a 63 contact with 20's Ks in HS for a 20 year old is ok? But a 60 contact with 40's Ks in HS for a 19 year old is not?
![[Image: U652lSA.png]](http://i.imgur.com/U652lSA.png)
RE: 2046 Draft Analysis - hokeyrules - 05-29-2014
there was no 20 year old in high school. Also if you are comparing Wallace and Austin, Wallace had more at bats in college so a higher level? Just because you disagree does not make me an idiot.
RE: 2046 Draft Analysis - gillyd - 05-29-2014
Thanks for doing this hokey
RE: 2046 Draft Analysis - erick1174 - 05-29-2014
Good work!
RE: 2046 Draft Analysis - mattynokes - 05-29-2014
(05-29-2014, 12:31 AM)hokeyrules Wrote: there was no 20 year old in high school. Also if you are comparing Wallace and Austin, Wallace had more at bats in college so a higher level? Just because you disagree does not make me an idiot.
You can't compare their 2046 numbers, so that's why I went back to Wallace's HS numbers. The difference from an A+ to a C+ seems fundamentally wrong when if Austin didn't have the super high Ks, he'd likely have better contact and just as good of an eye.
As for the "idiot" meme, if you haven't seen "On Jeff Ears", you need to see it.
RE: 2046 Draft Analysis - hokeyrules - 05-29-2014
To be fair I was just going by vitals, I can not go by stats until they actually play.
RE: 2046 Draft Analysis - mattynokes - 05-29-2014
(05-29-2014, 03:59 PM)hokeyrules Wrote: To be fair I was just going by vitals, I can not go by stats until they actually play.
Well, therein lies the problem. Those amateur stats aren't cosmetic. For example, a single digit K amateur won't surprisingly strikeout a lot. Things like that. A lot of things aren't going to pop up out of the blue.
RE: 2046 Draft Analysis - Steal Third - 05-29-2014
Always enjoy your commentary Hokey. I knew something was wrong when you gave me a good score on Delgado........but, you held true to form as I keep my streak alive of scoring just about your worst rating once again. I hope Mariani hits 100 HR's against your fish in a long and illustrious career!!!