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+---- Thread: 2044 Draft Analysis (/showthread.php?tid=24280)
2044 Draft Analysis - hokeyrules - 03-03-2014
Please keep in mind these are my opinions so please do not take offense if I do not like your picks.
1st :MIN: Selected SP Jose Seratos
To start off I know of two offers that TheNation was given, and both frankly I liked better than the pick. Obviously I am biased, and think Seratos could have dropped to 8th, and then he would have gotten the rest of my picks, but this is not an absolute terrible pick. No matter who drafted I feel that Romero should have gone number 1, and Cervates was the best pitcher in the draft in my books as well. 67 health is a bit scary, but he could easily get to 75 or so by the time he peaks, and at 16 a lot of good can happen, or a lot of bad can happen. His numbers in high school are not good at all, and his vitals already show in my opinion that his movement will be a lot higher than everything else.
Rating: D-
Career Stats: 85-79 4.54 ERA 965 k’s 1.46 WHIP
2nd :CIN: Selected OF Enrico Romero
Best pick in the draft, not really much to say. He looks like another Rafael Romero, which both Sean and I had experience with, and I mean the only thing wrong with him is he has no power, otherwise he is outstanding. Sorry JPS your pick was too perfect there is not much to say.
Rating: A+(+)
Career Stats: .299 avg 2384 hits 131 HR’s 794 RBI’s 370 SB’s
3rd :LAA: Selected CA Jonah Barry
I feel like Chris may have missed the boat on the selection here, for a team really looking for young players, I am surprised he did not take Cervates. In my opinion as well Barry is not even the best catcher in the draft, as he cannot hit against righties, which is the majority of the league, and he has a fairly low eye as well. I just do not see him as being that great, but then again players are always preference.
Rating: D-
Career Stats: .250 avg 850 hits 98 HR’s 439 RBI’s
4th :NYY: Selected SP Tomas Cervates
I am not sure if Erick sent in a list or Andy selected it for him, but to have 4th pick and get this player is great. I think he is the best pitcher in the draft, and really I found most of the draft to have only about 4-5 really good players and the rest of the draft being average. I know with some teams I talked to, if they had first pick this is the guy who they would have taken, but overall I was very surprised not to see him go 1 or 2.
Rating: A+
Career Stats: 156-138 4.17 ERA 1879 k’s 1.28 WHIP
5th :CLE: Selected SP Joel Villaroel
Back to back years Hick picks a young SP with a team that is very close to competing. Villaroel looks to be a decent pitcher. He could become an ace with luck in WB and jumps, but even being a solid 2-4 pitcher is good. His high school numbers do not look that great either although the one year he did real well. The only real issue I see is his health being a little low, and looks to give up the long bomb, so time will tell how he does.
Rating: B
Career Stats: 119-95 3.83 ERA 1548 k’s 1.29 WHIP
6th :LAA: Selected SS Juan Gallegos
Great defensive and power hitting SS, terrible at contact, and weak against righties. I think if he gets the right jumps and WB he could be very good, and bypass the contact, however, if he does not jump that great and his vitals in power do not reach 90 because he does not reach his peak then overall, I will think this is another huge miss for Chris. He is a high risk medium reward to me, but everyone has their own opinion. The other SS in the draft were not very good, and definitely should not have been taken anywhere close to where Gallegos went.
Rating: D
Career Stats: .207 avg 844 hits 164 HR’s 535 RBI’s
7th :TBR: Selected CA Woody Barkman
Best catcher in the draft in my opinion, and a great pick by Steal Third. His eye is already quite good, his splits between lefties and righties are not as big a difference as Barry, and fielding wise Barkman is better, although his arm is a little weaker, but more accurate. The one knock on him is that his numbers in contact are not really great, but he hit almost 3 times as many homers as Barry. For a team that is young and needs a future catcher I think Barkman is a very solid pick at number 7.
Rating: B
Career Stats: .242 avg 1424 hits 2287 HR’s 796 RBI’s
8th :FLA: Selected 1B Mickey Bailey
Well after seeing what Golia is like although he is not on the same level as Golia, Bailey has some similarities, and is younger. So I was really surprised to see him drop to 8th, really I saw him being a top 5 pick, and was quite pleased to get him. So obviously his contact is not that great but his power numbers and eye are very good, so if he can get to 90+ power and get his contact to the mid 70’s or 80s he could be a very good slugger. Lefty hitters are very rare, and although I hate picking a 1B in the top 10 picks, I think he was probably the best position player available after Romero.
Rating: A
Career Stats: .262 avg 2331 hits 519 HR’s 1694 RBI’s
9th :SFG: Selected SP Adam Peterson
I think this was a very good pick by Peterson, I was looking at him as potentially being picked by me. However, the one thing that hurts him is his birthday is at the end of the month, so if he does not jump the rest of the season, he does look less attractive. Like most pitchers in the draft, his numbers are not that great in high school, but he does not look to give up that many home runs which is always good.
Rating: B+
Career Stats: 56-93 4.67 ERA 1119 k’s 1.42 WHIP
10th :MIL: Selected SP Zeke Flagg
Well the issue with 16 year olds is it is so hard to tell how good they will be. However, looking at his numbers, they look terrible, although recently he has kept the ball in the park which is good. He has good health, but one thing Rocky will have to look at is the game had him set as a closer in his usage, and I am not sure whether that will have affected his progress for the year. On terms of when Rocky’s team will be good, this pick fits, since I know Rocky is building a very young team that will be competing in 5 years or so, and if this guy gets some jumps and that. However if I was rocky, might have looked for a 16 year old hitter, only due to the fact that he has a couple good young arms in his future rotation already.
Rating: B
Career Stats: 57-51 4.56 ERA 471 k’s 1.36 WHIP
11th :SEA: Selected OF Jason Sechler
Matty made a very solid pick with the 11th pick of the draft. I personally think Sechler is one of the top hitting prospects of the draft. However, the one major downfall with him, is he will either be a left fielder or DH for his career. His splits are very close, and he looks like he will be projected to have good contact, really good power, and a good eye, so very good hitting prospect, especially in Seattle. If Matty was not competing already I think he would have taken a gamble on a different outfielder instead, but very solid none the less.
Rating: B
Career Stats: .267 avg 1087 hits 159 HR’s 592 RBI’s
12th :SFG: Selected OF Masamitsu Yamamoto
I think the splits on Yamamoto are fairly spread already and they may get even larger as he gets closer to his peak. I do not like the fact that he has a low eye and low contact. He has good defense which is very good, but at 17, I personally think he should have went one year younger at a different outfielder who would have been Noroa, although the fielding may be the reason he went with Yamamoto.
Rating: B-
Career Stats: .251 avg 380 hits 45 HR’s 172 RBI’s
13th :CLE: Selected OF Juan Pedroso
Well this is a player that is very high risk high reward. He could either be one amazing outfielder if he jumps, or he could be one of the bigger busts of the draft. He is another one of those rare lefties, and like I said if he jumps and does not end up peaking at his birthday, he could be very good. However, he could also end up like a player I have on my own team being George Westfall, and they have similar vitals. So this could be one of the riskier moves by Hick. If he does jump though, Hick has himself an OF who has contact, power, eye, and defense, but I also know Hick seems to like the OF, since he already has like 5 or 6 in his farm before Pedroso.
Rating: C (Could end up as an A+ or an F, so picked right in the middle)
Career Stats: No MLB Stats
14th :CHC: Selected SP Nicholas Koester
I really like Koester, however he is another one of those pitchers that really needs a good jump or wb boost, before he can be thought of as a solid pitcher. For a team that just started the rebuild I was surprised that Jason did not go younger, but overall I still really like Koester. Even if he only hit 84 overall or so he should be a decent enough of a pitcher to be a number 4 or 5. It is also nice to see another pitcher with actual good numbers in high school or college.
Rating: B
Career Stats: 38-65 5.46 ERA 618 k’s 1.48 WHIP
15th :OAK: Selected OF Carlos Noroa
Well based on the fact I mentioned an OF that teams should have gambled on earlier, here he is. Carlos Noroa is 16, and although his splits are still fairly spread, his contact, power, eye are all above his current overall. The one problem is his defense, which could become average, and should at least make him a solid LF. I think he has the potential to be the best OF in this draft.
Rating: A
Career Stats: .286 avg 1834 hits 196 HR’s 940 RBI’s
16th :CHW: Selected OF James Wibble
Overall I think he is a far better OF than who CHW took last year, his contact is closer to power, he has great defense, he has a good eye. The one major scare for Wible is the fact that his splits are so wide, and really looks like he could potentially be a lefty specialist platoon player. If his righty numbers can go up, this will be a very good pick for JHC.
Rating: C+
Career Stats: .236 avg 621 hits 66 HR’s 322 RBI’s
17th :TBR: Selected SP Pete McCoy
Well here is the third 16 year old pitcher drafted, and once again it is really hard to get a good read on him. The thing that scares me a lot is the fact his numbers are of dice over 5, and 8 homers in 59 innings. His control also may never really increase much as I still do not find them increasing a ton in mogul 14. I am a little surprised that Steal Third went with another pitcher who is such high risk at age 16, when maybe the next pick was the next best hitter available, and a position that Tampa does not have in the farm.
Rating: C
Career Stats: 152-111 3.79 ERA 1705 k’s 1.27 WHIP
18th :SFG: Selected 1B Jeff Musselman
With the picks left, I can honestly say that this was probably the best pick that Vertigo could have taken with this draft pick. I think Musselman is very good, and when I was discussing who I would take at 8, this would have been the other 1B that came into my mind. However lefty prevails. His eye is even better than Bailey’s and his splits are also fairly good, but as most 1B he will be hitting lefties a lot better than righties. What will this mean for Willie Cavieres……..
Rating: A
Career Stats: .255 avg 1468 hits 295 HR’s 971 RBI’s
19th :LAA: Selected SP Nick Messer
Messer looks to be a decent pitcher, with a good range of pitches, and has fairly decent numbers in high school. Messer is one of the better picks to take at this point, however, his birthday is coming up, so he needs a jump before the end of the year or else he may not be that great of a pick.
Rating: C
Career Stats: 172-112 3.86 ERA 1325 k’s 1.24 WHIP
20th :SFG: Selected SP Carl Greer
Carl Greer looks to be another one of those pitchers with good vitals right now, but his birthday is in just over a month, and really he definitely needs to have a jump this season or will be average at best. His vitals are slightly better than the previous pick, but also 10 overall points higher and with less move to room, the pitcher I liked the most of the ones remaining for both LAA and SFG was taken at 21.
Rating: C
Career Stats: 9-11 5.27 ERA 89 k’s 1.49 WHIP
21st :CIN: Selected SP Erik Taylor
This kid just had his birthday, and looks almost as good as the other two players. He already has some decent control, which is higher than movement and could end up being a steal in the later bit of the draft, once again based on whether he jumps or not. His stats are also unbelievable good in high school, which is something rare based on the players all drafted before as pitchers.
Rating: B+
Career Stats: 90-86 4.10 ERA 875 k’s 1.40 WHIP
22nd :MIL: Selected RP Mike Madden
I really love this kid, he looks to be very good, and his stats are good, his vitals are far above his overall, he looks very good in every aspect. He also has started half the games he pitched, so really I think he is another one of those safe bets to make him into an SP. Whether rocky does that or not is another story, but I know I likely would on this.
Rating: A-
Career Stats: 205-113 3.12 ERA 2565 k’s 1.13 WHIP
23rd :TEX: Selected SP Eric Branch
I do like his vitals, but he is another pitcher that has the really bad stats, and the one problem that he also has is his birthday in 4 days. Depending on his drop, or his jump for the season, he could be average at best , but I really do not see him anything more than an end of a rotation pitcher.
Rating: C
Career Stats: 6-7 8.04 ERA 45 k’s 1.88 WHIP
24th :NYM: Selected OF Paul Benjamin
Benjamin is okay, and maybe a decent pick at this spot, but not great at any means. He will be a slugger, and should get around 80 contact or so, but the big flaw for him is his large splits and that he is a righty. He will be a DH slugger against lefties, but it will be interesting how he does against righties by the time he peaks. I think he may only be a platoon player, but time will tell. His stats for college are good, however, so maybe I will be wrong on this.
Rating: C-
Career Stats: .172 avg 21 hits 3 HR’s 12 RBI’s
25th :STL: Selected SS Fletcher Aylett
Absolutely terrible pick. He has speed, and defense, and that is it. He will have average contact, power, and eye, and very little movement for him in terms of overall to peak. His college stats are good, but not amazing, and he really can only play against lefties, and even then not very well.
Rating: D-
Career Stats: .219 avg 713 hits 130 HR’s 465 RBI’s 127 SB’s
26th :DET: Selected SP Trey Chilton
Arod gets a positive nod from me on this one. I like Chilton, although not so much his health. His fastball already looks good, and his stats in high school and college are very good. I also think that he does not give up the longball too badly, so that should help him in Detroit, and I like Chilton a bit more than some of the other pitchers taken previously.
Rating: B+
Career Stats: 88-71 4.15 ERA 1154 k’s 1.38 WHIP
27th :TEX: Selected OF Drew Tyner
I think Tyner could be a very good OF if he ends up hitting his peak. His contact and power vitals are already above his overall, his splits stats are very close, and the one downfall is his defense and health. Possibly similar to Horacio Aguilar, who I drafted for Texas, but unlikely to be quite as good, because even I never thought Aguilar would last very long or reach his peak with his health.
Rating: B+
Career Stats: .251 avg 193 hits 20 HR’s 96 RBI’s
28th :TOR: Selected SP Earl Williams
He is the type of pitcher you want to get at pick 28. His control is already high, his movement should go, and since he had his birthday already, that makes this pick even better in my books. Though should we really expect anything less from Andy. If I ever give him lower than a B I will be surprised. He also has very good stats in high school and college, and it looks like Andy has found another future player to be part of his strong team.
Rating: A-
Career Stats: 138-137 4.72 ERA 1610 k’s 1.35 WHIP
29th :HOU: Selected SP Jamie Quirol
I think Houston got decent value at his pick at 29. Quirol has good high school stats, he has a couple good strong pitches, and control and power are above his overall. He also has very decent health which is always good, and I think that he should be at worst an end of the rotation player which his not too bad at pick 29.
Rating: B
Career Stats: 78-65 3.92 ERA 1067 k’s 1.33 WHIP
30th :PHI: Selected OF Miguel Cabaello
Well I do not like him at all, but that is because his contact is so low, and he has no eye. He has fairly good power and defense, and at age 16 maybe this is not so bad, but I highly doubt that he will ever become a good starting OF. His splits make him even more like a platoon against lefties, and will really need to get his contact up to become anything.
Rating D-
Career Stats: .225 avg 148 hits 29 HR’s 101 RBI’s
RE: 2044 Draft Analysis - GoIrish - 03-03-2014
Nice write up hokey. Over/Under is set at 15 at the amount of times hokey tries to obtain this Romero and I am going over.
RE: 2044 Draft Analysis - Vertigo - 03-03-2014
As much as I prepared for this draft, I'm not entirely happy with it - partially from it not quite going the way I expected and partially because I was going back and forth between 2 drafts. So I'm fairly happy with the grades I got from hokey.
I think my 2nd round went better than my first tbh.
Great job writing this up hokey.
I think another edition of the FCM newspaper will be out soon. I should have enough content.
RE: 2044 Draft Analysis - hickoxb2 - 03-03-2014
Romero and Cervates were absolutely the cream of the crop, and I was trying to move up from 5 to get one of them. Looks like I need to suck just a little bit more in order to get those top 2-3 picks.
RE: 2044 Draft Analysis - decker91 - 03-03-2014
great job hokey
RE: 2044 Draft Analysis - Steal Third - 03-04-2014
Thanks Hokey...a great read!
As for TBR...I traded up from 15 to 7 in order to grab one of the 2 catchers. It is not often that a draft contains a 90 peak catcher...let alone 2. And my system is completely bare of any real talent at that position.
As for my selection of SP- McCoy. You may be completely on target. He is only 16 and a risk. I did not like this draft for SPs so I went with McCoy who I thought was better than what was left.....maybe not. One can never have enough pitching....ask Rocky. My fingers are crossed....
As for Musselman, I agree he was the best hitter available. But I don't like one dimensional 1B....especially right handed ones. I would rather play a lefty hitter there like Marfil (if he can ever get his contact up over 70!!!) or find an alternate option.....there always seems to be decent LH 1B in the drafts or OF who can move there. Right or wrong, given a choice at 17th overall, I will always take a SP spec over a RH 1B. With a lower pick, I might go differently depending on the choices.
Always great to see the debates and opinions. Thanks again for doing this...I really look forward to your recaps!!!
RE: 2044 Draft Analysis - Cdawg - 03-04-2014
I realized after drafting Nora that I didn't need a OF, but I did know that w/ 4 picks in the 2nd I could stock up on SP, which is what I needed.